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Saburtalo vs Spaeri Result & Analysis

Date: 12/06/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Vs
48%
29%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Spaeri
Spaeri
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Saburtalo a 48% win probability against Spaeri in the Georgia: Erovnuli Liga on 2026-06-12, with 29% for the draw and 23% for Spaeri. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (77%), Over 1.5 (71%).

Results analysis

Saburtalo finished 1-1 against Spaeri (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 48% home win, 29% draw and 23% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (77%), Over 1.5 (71%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saburtalo win✗ Miss
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spaeri win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W13L21W20W20W10W10W40W21W10WA·TEL17/10A·TOR21/10H·DIL26/10A·DIN04/11H·SAM08/11A·KOL21/11H·DIN26/11A·GAR30/11H·GAG06/12H·DIN29/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.001.310.942.001.07
vs Stronger (2)1.001.502.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (17)1.590.940.890.562.381.38
vs Weaker (11)1.821.001.831.331.800.60
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpaeriSpaeri

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D21W03L23L21W20W12L12LA·MES26/10H·MER01/11A·SAM08/11H·RUS21/11A·SIO25/11H·LOK29/11A·SAB06/12A·GAR10/12H·GAR14/12A·RUS29/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.171.361.360.881.00
vs Stronger (2)0.003.500.005.000.002.00
vs Similar (17)1.181.121.380.881.001.33
vs Weaker (11)1.180.821.601.400.830.33
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.1%
Under 2.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.0%
Under 3.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.0%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.7%
Saburtalo goals ↓
Spaeri goals →
01234
010.0%7.1%4.0%1.3%0.3%
112%14%5.9%1.9%0.5%
29.6%9.2%4.4%1.4%0.3%
34.7%4.5%2.2%0.7%0.2%
41.8%1.7%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saburtalo goals (down), columns = Spaeri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rustavi
2.50
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.00
Dila
1.80
Gagra
1.67
Dinamo Batumi
1.67
Samgurali
1.67
Saburtalo
1.40
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.67
Spaeri
0.50
Meshakhte
0.17
Saburtalo is 0.90 points better than Spaeri in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.67
Dila
2.60
Dinamo Batumi
2.17
Samgurali
1.67
Saburtalo
1.60
Rustavi
1.50
Gagra
1.33
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.33
Spaeri
0.83
Meshakhte
0.83
Saburtalo is 0.77 goals better than Spaeri in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 0.83).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.83
Gagra
1.00
Dinamo Batumi
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Saburtalo
1.60
Dila
1.60
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.83
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.83
Samgurali
2.17
Meshakhte
2.50
Saburtalo is 0.10 goals worse than Spaeri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.60 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L20W00D00D10W00D20W10W10WA·TEL17/10A·TOR21/10H·DIL26/10A·DIN04/11H·SAM08/11A·KOL21/11H·DIN26/11A·GAR30/11H·GAG06/12H·DIN29/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.370.560.251.000.50
vs Stronger (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (17)0.710.350.330.111.120.62
vs Weaker (11)0.910.450.830.501.000.40
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SpaeriSpaeri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D10W00D03L10W20W10W10W01LA·MES26/10H·MER01/11A·SAM08/11H·RUS21/11A·SIO25/11H·LOK29/11A·SAB06/12A·GAR10/12H·GAR14/12A·RUS29/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.470.570.500.440.44
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.530.470.620.380.440.56
vs Weaker (11)0.550.180.600.200.500.17
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (25)
€6m
TK (18)
€6m
DIL (15)
€3m
SPA (20)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
TK (5)
€2m
DIL (7)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (6)
€1m
TK (4)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
DIL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SAB wins
0
Draws
0
SPA wins

Head-to-head

Saburtalo vs Spaeri · H/A from SAB
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

SaburtaloSaburtalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/05/26HSAB Vs Dinamo Batumi1-0
06/12/25HSAB Vs Gagra2-1
30/11/25AGareji Vs SAB0-4
26/11/25HSAB Vs Dinamo Tbilisi1-0
21/11/25AKolkheti Poti Vs SAB0-1
08/11/25HSAB Vs Samgurali2-0
04/11/25ADinamo Batumi Vs SAB0-2
26/10/25HSAB Vs Dila2-1
21/10/25ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs SAB3-1
17/10/25ATelavi Vs SAB0-2

SpaeriSpaeri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/05/26ARustavi Vs SPA2-1
14/12/25HSPA Vs Gareji1-2
10/12/25AGareji Vs SPA0-2
06/12/25ASaburtalo II Vs SPA1-2
29/11/25HSPA Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi2-3
25/11/25ASioni Vs SPA3-0
21/11/25HSPA Vs Rustavi2-1
08/11/25ASamtredia Vs SPA1-1
01/11/25HSPA Vs Merani Martvili0-0
26/10/25AMeshakhte Vs SPA0-0

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Saburtalo
Saburtalo
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.14
HomeWWWWW2.08
AwayWLWWW2.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %64%60%68%
AVG goals2.402.442.36
Over 1.5 %68%76%60%
Over 2.5 %44%44%44%
Over 3.5 %26%24%28%
Scored1.621.601.64
Conceded0.780.840.72
BTTS46%52%40%
Clean Sheet50%44%56%
Corners---
Cards---
Spaeri
Spaeri
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.50
HomeLDWLL1.58
AwayDLWWL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%42%38%
AVG goals2.623.042.23
Over 1.5 %76%79%73%
Over 2.5 %48%62%35%
Over 3.5 %20%33%8%
Scored1.441.751.15
Conceded1.181.291.08
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet34%38%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RustaviRustavi615
83%
2.5
95+4
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.8
-
2Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi612
67%
2.0
1611+5
4.5
100%
100%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.8
-
3Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi610
50%
1.7
139+4
3.7
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.21.5
-
4GagraGagra610
33%
1.7
86+2
2.3
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
5SamguraliSamgurali610
50%
1.7
1013-3
3.8
83%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.2
-
6DilaDila59
60%
1.8
138+5
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.61.6
-
7SaburtaloSaburtalo57
40%
1.4
88+0
3.2
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
8Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi64
17%
0.7
811-3
3.2
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.31.8
-
9SpaeriSpaeri63
0%
0.5
59-4
2.3
83%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.81.5
-
10MeshakhteMeshakhte61
0%
0.2
515-10
3.3
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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