The clash between Saburtalo and Torpedo Kutaisi feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win. Saburtalo’s home form shows a modest 1.0 goal scored and 0.67 conceded against similar opposition, while Torpedo Kutaisi, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.29 conceded to comparable teams. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8% chance. Home win probability sits at 40%, draw at 29%, and away win at 31%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 99.4%, Under 10.5 corners at 98.6%, Under 6.5 goals at 98.3%, Under 9.5 corners at 96.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.6%, Under 5.5 goals at 95.2%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 94.9%. Saburtalo’s recent three defeats and Torpedo Kutaisi’s draw-heavy run add to the uncertainty, making the outcome a tight contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Saburtalo win
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi win
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Saburtalo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.19
1.00
1.79
1.21
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.94
1.00
0.67
2.43
1.29
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
1.00
1.50
1.33
1.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.50
2.19
1.62
1.64
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.72
1.61
2.33
2.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (12)
2.25
1.33
2.00
1.14
2.60
1.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.8%
2-0
7.7%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
5.1%
Saburtalo goals ↓
Torpedo Kutaisi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
7.5%
5.0%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.6%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.7%
8.9%
5.1%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saburtalo goals (down), columns = Torpedo Kutaisi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Saburtalo is 0.54 points better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Saburtalo is 0.08 goals better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Saburtalo is 0.21 goals better than Torpedo Kutaisi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Saburtalo
For 5.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 17.3 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torpedo Kutaisi
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Saburtalo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.0
10.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
30.0
27.0
36.0
vs Stronger (5)
7.0
4.0
10.0
1.4
0.5
2.0
22.0
8.0
36.0
vs Similar (28)
12.0
12.0
-
0.4
0.5
0.2
46.0
46.0
-
vs Weaker (17)
5.0
5.0
-
0.4
0.7
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
33%
100%
6%
8%
4%
67%
50%
100%
% under line
50%
67%
0%
94%
92%
96%
33%
50%
0%
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.3%
Under 9.5
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.3%
Under 3.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Saburtalo or Draw
70.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Saburtalo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo or Torpedo Kutaisi
71.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Saburtalo + Torpedo Kutaisi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi
57.8%
Avg Implied -
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Torpedo Kutaisi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5
Over
76.1%
Under
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5
Over
41.9%
Under
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Saburtalo, so a minus line means Saburtalo give that many goals of a start and Torpedo Kutaisi receive them. At -1, Saburtalo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Saburtalo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo -2
8.0%
Draw -2
13.0%
Torpedo Kutaisi +2
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo -1
20.9%
Draw -1
21.3%
Torpedo Kutaisi +1
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo +1
70.9%
Draw +1
16.9%
Torpedo Kutaisi -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Saburtalo)
Saburtalo +2
87.8%
Draw +2
8.4%
Torpedo Kutaisi -2
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Saburtalo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.62
0.19
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.38
0.56
0.00
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.36
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.19
0.69
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.72
1.33
0.89
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.58
1.00
0.43
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Saburtalo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.56
0.81
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.56
0.44
0.67
1.43
0.43
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.64
0.83
1.00
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Torpedo Kutaisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torpedo Kutaisi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.83
1.00
0.94
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.89
1.00
1.11
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.75
1.00
0.71
2.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Saburtalo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Saburtalo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Saburtalo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Torpedo Kutaisi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Saburtalo and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Saburtalo and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Saburtalo and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Saburtalo and Torpedo Kutaisi have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
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Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
Gagra
Dila
Meshakhte
Spaeri