Safa Baku’s defensive record at home shows a modest 0.67 goals conceded, yet their average 1.83 goals per match suggests a cautious approach against a similarly matched opponent. Araz, on the road, has struggled, conceding 2.3 goals while scoring only 1.2, and they entered this fixture after a heavy 0-5 loss to Neftchi Baku. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 38% chance, a draw at 32%, and a home win at 29%. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% probability. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (97.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 4.5 (93.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.6%), and Away under 2.5 goals (89.2%). These picks reflect a tight, low-scoring encounter where the visiting side is expected to edge the game.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Safa Baku win
27.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz win
41.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Safa Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.87
1.64
0.79
1.75
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
1.83
0.67
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.88
1.00
1.50
0.88
2.22
1.11
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.83
1.12
1.24
1.15
2.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.50
-
-
0.50
5.50
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.91
0.92
1.58
1.20
2.30
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.33
1.60
0.40
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.2%
Under 1.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.0%
Under 2.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.7%
No
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
13.2%
0-1
12.9%
1-0
9.7%
0-2
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.1%
Safa Baku goals ↓
Araz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
13%
8.6%
3.4%
1.0%
1
9.7%
15%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
5.1%
6.2%
3.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
1.6%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Safa Baku goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Safa Baku is 0.30 points worse than Araz in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Safa Baku is 0.31 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Safa Baku is 0.19 goals better than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Safa Baku or Draw
59.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
32%
41%
covers Safa Baku + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku or Araz
68.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
32%
41%
covers Safa Baku + Araz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Araz
72.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
32%
41%
covers Draw + Araz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Safa Baku, so a minus line means Safa Baku give that many goals of a start and Araz receive them. At -1, Safa Baku must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Safa Baku win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Safa Baku)
Safa Baku -2
2.6%
Draw -2
7.3%
Araz +2
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Safa Baku)
Safa Baku -1
10.0%
Draw -1
17.1%
Araz +1
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Safa Baku)
Safa Baku +1
59.0%
Draw +1
22.5%
Araz -1
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Safa Baku)
Safa Baku +2
81.6%
Draw +2
12.3%
Araz -2
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Safa Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.23
0.57
0.21
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.23
0.33
0.17
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.24
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.59
0.35
0.38
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
-
-
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.82
0.50
0.42
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Safa Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.07
0.57
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.46
1.50
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.76
0.75
0.62
1.22
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.53
0.88
0.77
1.23
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
-
-
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
1.09
0.42
1.17
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Safa Baku's squad is €2m less valuable than Araz's (€4m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Safa Baku's attack is €2m less valuable than Araz's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Safa Baku's midfield is €1m less valuable than Araz's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Safa Baku and Araz have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Sumqayıt