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Safa Baku vs Cəbrayıl Result & Analysis

Date: 15/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Safa Baku
Safa Baku
Vs
70%
20%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Safa Baku a 70% win probability against Cəbrayıl in the Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta on 2026-05-15, with 20% for the draw and 10% for Cəbrayıl. The model estimates around 2.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 2-0 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (80%), Home win (70%).

Results analysis

Safa Baku finished 1-0 against Cəbrayıl (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 70% home win, 20% draw and 10% away win. Picks that landed: Home win (70%). Missed: Over 1.5 (80%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Safa Baku win✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl win✗ Miss
10.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-881W21W20W10W25L21W00D30W00D00DA·DIF25/02H·ŞAH05/03A·ŞIM11/03H·ŞAH18/03A·MIN03/04H·SƏB09/04A·BAK16/04H·MOI22/04H·ŞIM29/04A·DIF06/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.761.850.772.170.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (25)2.000.761.850.772.170.75
Clean sheet %52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-623L14L10W11D12L32W00D21W06L23LA·ŞIM24/02H·SƏB06/03H·ZAQ13/03A·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04A·SƏB30/04H·BAK07/05
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.972.141.430.812.44
vs Stronger (30)1.431.972.141.430.812.44
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.6%
Under 2.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.1%
1-0 ✓
11.1%
3-0
9.5%
1-1
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
4-0
5.2%
Safa Baku goals ↓
Cəbrayıl goals →
01234
06.3%3.1%1.4%0.3%0.1%
111%9.5%3.1%0.7%0.1%
213%9.4%3.4%0.8%0.1%
39.5%6.9%2.5%0.6%0.1%
45.2%3.8%1.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Safa Baku goals (down), columns = Cəbrayıl goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Safa Baku is 1.22 points better than Cəbrayıl in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Safa Baku is 0.44 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Safa Baku is 1.30 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 2.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D00D10W01L00D00D00D00D00DA·DIF25/02H·ŞAH05/03A·ŞIM11/03H·ŞAH18/03A·MIN03/04H·SƏB09/04A·BAK16/04H·MOI22/04H·ŞIM29/04A·DIF06/05
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.720.200.620.230.830.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (25)0.720.200.620.230.830.17
Clean sheet %84% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L00D10W11D10W00D20W03L11DA·ŞIM24/02H·SƏB06/03H·ZAQ13/03A·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04A·SƏB30/04H·BAK07/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.831.000.640.311.00
vs Stronger (30)0.630.831.000.640.311.00
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.6%-------✗ Miss
Home win70.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (25)
€4m
SƏB (30)
€0m
MIN (20)
€0m
ZAQ (23)
€0m
CƏB (23)
€0m
Safa Baku's squad is €4m more valuable than Cəbrayıl's (€4m vs €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Safa Baku vs Cəbrayıl · H/A from SB
DateH/AGameScore
19/12/25ACəbrayıl Vs SB0-1
24/09/25HSB Vs Cəbrayıl3-0

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26ADifai Ağsu Vs SB0-0
29/04/26HSB Vs Şimal0-0
22/04/26HSB Vs MOIK3-0
16/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs SB0-0
09/04/26HSB Vs Səbail2-1
03/04/26AMingəçevir Vs SB5-2
18/03/26HSB Vs Şahdağ1-0
11/03/26AŞimal Vs SB0-2
05/03/26HSB Vs Şahdağ2-1
25/02/26ADifai Ağsu Vs SB1-8

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/05/26HCƏB Vs Baku Sportinq2-3
30/04/26ASəbail Vs CƏB6-0
22/04/26HCƏB Vs Mingəçevir2-1
15/04/26AŞahdağ Vs CƏB0-0
08/04/26HCƏB Vs Zaqatala3-2
02/04/26AMOIK Vs CƏB2-1
19/03/26ADifai Ağsu Vs CƏB1-1
13/03/26HCƏB Vs Zaqatala1-0
06/03/26HCƏB Vs Səbail1-4
24/02/26AŞimal Vs CƏB3-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Safa Baku
Safa Baku
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDD2.16
HomeWWWWD2.08
AwayWWLDD2.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%54%67%
AVG goals2.762.622.92
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %48%54%42%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored2.001.852.17
Conceded0.760.770.75
BTTS48%62%33%
Clean Sheet52%38%67%
Corners---
Cards---
Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL0.94
HomeLWWWL1.50
AwayLDLDL0.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%46%8%
AVG goals2.923.122.73
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %56%67%46%
Over 3.5 %32%42%23%
Scored1.201.750.69
Conceded1.721.382.04
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet24%33%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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