The model deems Sabah FA the clear favourite, assigning a 70 % chance to an away win. This rating reflects Sabah’s stronger away form, scoring 1.83 goals per game and conceding 1.33, versus Safa Baku’s 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded at home. The venue advantage is muted because both sides face opponents of similar strength, yet Sabah’s recent 1-2 loss still leaves them poised to exploit Safa’s defensive lapses.
The predicted outcome is an away victory. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total number of goals being 2, a 25 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Sabah, with a 14.4 % chance.
Home win 9 %, draw 20 %, away win 70 %. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.6 %), Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.9 %), Away +2 handicap (97.6 %), Home under 2.5 goals (97.4 %), Under 5.5 (94.3 %), Draw or Away (90.8 %) and Away +1 handicap (90.8 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Safa Baku win
7.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA win
72.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Safa Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.87
1.64
0.79
1.75
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
1.83
0.67
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.88
1.00
1.50
0.88
2.22
1.11
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.37
0.97
2.47
0.87
2.27
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.25
1.31
2.57
1.29
2.00
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
2.50
0.57
2.38
0.50
2.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.0%
Under 1.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.0%
No
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
16.4%
0-1
15.6%
0-3
10.9%
1-1
9.1%
0-0
9.1%
1-2
8.2%
1-3
5.5%
0-4
5.4%
Safa Baku goals ↓
Sabah FA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
16%
16%
11%
5.4%
1
3.3%
9.1%
8.2%
5.5%
2.7%
2
1.0%
2.1%
2.1%
1.4%
0.7%
3
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Safa Baku goals (down), columns = Sabah FA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Safa Baku is 1.27 points worse than Sabah FA in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 2.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Safa Baku is 1.25 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 2.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Safa Baku is 0.81 goals worse than Sabah FA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 0.76).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Safa Baku or Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied -
7%
21%
72%
covers Safa Baku + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku or Sabah FA
79.5%
Avg Implied -
7%
21%
72%
covers Safa Baku + Sabah FA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sabah FA
92.5%
Avg Implied -
7%
21%
72%
covers Draw + Sabah FA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5
Over
86.3%
Under
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5
Over
32.1%
Under
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 3.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Safa Baku, so a minus line means Safa Baku give that many goals of a start and Sabah FA receive them. At -1, Safa Baku must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Safa Baku win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Safa Baku)
Safa Baku -2
0.3%
Draw -2
1.4%
Sabah FA +2
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Safa Baku)
Safa Baku -1
1.7%
Draw -1
5.8%
Sabah FA +1
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Safa Baku)
Safa Baku +1
28.0%
Draw +1
25.3%
Sabah FA -1
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Safa Baku)
Safa Baku +2
53.3%
Draw +2
22.6%
Sabah FA -2
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Safa Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.23
0.57
0.21
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.23
0.33
0.17
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.24
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
0.93
0.33
1.07
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.62
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.17
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Safa Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.07
0.57
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.46
1.50
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.76
0.75
0.62
1.22
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sabah FA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sabah FA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.63
1.53
0.53
1.20
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.31
0.69
1.71
0.57
1.00
0.78
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.57
1.38
0.50
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sabah FA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sabah FA
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Veljko Simić75%
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Steve Solvet25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Veljko Simić25%
Ivan Lepinjica25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Aleksey Isayev0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tymoteusz Puchacz50%
Aleksey Isayev50%
Akim Zedadka25%
Joy Lance Mickels25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Xander Severina0%
Christian Nwachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joy Lance Mickels50%
Umarali Rakhmonaliev50%
Christian Nwachukwu33%
Aleksey Isayev25%
Patrick Orphe M'Bina25%
Xander Severina25%
Veljko Simić0%
Ivan Lepinjica0%
Akim Zedadka0%
Tymoteusz Puchacz0%
Stas Pokatilov0%
Rahman Dashdamirov0%
Steve Solvet0%
Abdulakh Khaybulaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Safa Baku's squad is €13m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€4m vs €17m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Safa Baku's attack is €4m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€1m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Safa Baku's midfield is €5m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€0m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Safa Baku's defence is €4m less valuable than Sabah FA's (€3m vs €7m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Şamaxı FK
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt