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Şahdağ vs Baku Sportinq Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 1-1
Şahdağ
Şahdağ
Vs
44%
30%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Şahdağ a 44% win probability against Baku Sportinq in the Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta on 2026-05-22, with 30% for the draw and 26% for Baku Sportinq. The model estimates around 2.4 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (79%).

Results analysis

Şahdağ finished 1-1 against Baku Sportinq (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 30% draw and 26% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (79%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şahdağ win✗ Miss
44.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D01L10W30W00D10W10W20W00DA·SAF05/03H·MOI12/03A·SAF18/03H·ŞIM03/04A·DIF09/04H·CƏB15/04A·ZAQ22/04A·MOI29/04H·MIN05/05A·SƏB15/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.351.001.751.001.001.00
vs Stronger (3)0.331.670.002.000.501.50
vs Similar (5)1.401.401.502.001.331.00
vs Weaker (18)1.500.782.000.671.000.89
Clean sheet %42% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L31W11D01L31W00D01L11D32W30WH·MIN05/03A·DIF12/03H·MIN18/03A·SƏB02/04H·MOI08/04H·SAF16/04A·ŞIM23/04H·DIF30/04A·CƏB07/05H·ZAQ15/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.871.500.811.210.93
vs Stronger (3)0.671.000.501.001.001.00
vs Similar (7)1.430.571.750.501.000.67
vs Weaker (20)1.450.951.600.901.301.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.1%
1-0
11.7%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.7%
Şahdağ goals ↓
Baku Sportinq goals →
01234
011%8.1%4.7%1.5%0.4%
112%14%6.3%2.1%0.5%
28.8%8.8%4.3%1.4%0.4%
34.0%4.0%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.4%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şahdağ goals (down), columns = Baku Sportinq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Şahdağ is 0.22 points worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şahdağ is 0.15 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Şahdağ is 0.15 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W01L10W30W00D00D00D10W00DA·SAF05/03H·MOI12/03A·SAF18/03H·ŞIM03/04A·DIF09/04H·CƏB15/04A·ZAQ22/04A·MOI29/04H·MIN05/05A·SƏB15/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.620.830.580.570.64
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (5)0.601.001.001.500.330.67
vs Weaker (18)0.830.500.890.330.780.67
Clean sheet %58% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D11D00D20W00D01L10W11D00DH·MIN05/03A·DIF12/03H·MIN18/03A·SƏB02/04H·MOI08/04H·SAF16/04A·ŞIM23/04H·DIF30/04A·CƏB07/05H·ZAQ15/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.400.750.310.570.50
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (7)1.000.291.000.251.000.33
vs Weaker (20)0.650.400.800.200.500.60
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (25)
€4m
SƏB (30)
€0m
MIN (20)
€0m
ZAQ (23)
€0m
CƏB (23)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ŞAH wins
0
Draws
2
BS wins

Head-to-head

Şahdağ vs Baku Sportinq · H/A from ŞAH
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/25ABaku Sportinq Vs ŞAH2-1
18/09/25HŞAH Vs Baku Sportinq2-3

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26ASəbail Vs ŞAH0-0
05/05/26HŞAH Vs Mingəçevir2-0
29/04/26AMOIK Vs ŞAH0-1
22/04/26AZaqatala Vs ŞAH0-1
15/04/26HŞAH Vs Cəbrayıl0-0
09/04/26ADifai Ağsu Vs ŞAH0-3
03/04/26HŞAH Vs Şimal1-0
18/03/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞAH1-0
12/03/26HŞAH Vs MOIK1-1
05/03/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞAH2-1

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26HBS Vs Zaqatala3-0
07/05/26ACəbrayıl Vs BS2-3
30/04/26HBS Vs Difai Ağsu1-1
23/04/26AŞimal Vs BS1-0
16/04/26HBS Vs Safa Baku0-0
08/04/26HBS Vs MOIK3-1
02/04/26ASəbail Vs BS1-0
18/03/26HBS Vs Mingəçevir1-1
12/03/26ADifai Ağsu Vs BS1-3
05/03/26HBS Vs Mingəçevir0-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Şahdağ
Şahdağ
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWD1.62
HomeWDWDW1.83
AwayLWWWD1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%43%
AVG goals2.352.752.00
Over 1.5 %62%67%57%
Over 2.5 %42%42%43%
Over 3.5 %23%42%7%
Scored1.351.751.00
Conceded1.001.001.00
BTTS42%42%43%
Clean Sheet42%50%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDWW1.44
HomeDWDDW1.35
AwayDWLLW1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%35%42%
AVG goals2.362.312.42
Over 1.5 %66%69%62%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %24%23%25%
Scored1.141.151.12
Conceded1.221.151.29
BTTS48%42%54%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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