Şahdağ’s strong home form and the model’s 88% chance of a win make them the clear favourite, especially against a Cəbrayıl side that has struggled away, conceding over two goals per game. The model’s pick is a home win, reflected in the 88%home win probability, 9% draw and 3% away win percentages. An average of 3.7 goals is expected, with the most likely total being three goals at 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 3-0 for Şahdağ, a 13.3% probability. Şahdağ averages two goals scored and half a goal conceded at home against weaker opponents, while Cəbrayıl averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.33 conceded away against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (99.8%), Home +2 handicap (99.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.4%), Home or Draw (97.1%), Home +1 handicap (97.1%), Under 7.5 (96.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (95.9%) and Under 6.5 (91.8%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Şahdağ win
86.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl win
3.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Şahdağ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.97
1.64
1.07
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
1.36
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.74
2.00
0.67
0.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Stronger (30)
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
69.7%
Under 2.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
48.4%
Under 3.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
39.9%
No
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
13.2%
2-0
12.9%
4-0
10.1%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
7.0%
2-1
6.9%
5-0
6.2%
4-1
5.4%
Şahdağ goals ↓
Cəbrayıl goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.2%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
8.0%
4.9%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
2
13%
6.9%
1.8%
0.3%
0.0%
3
13%
7.0%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
4
10%
5.4%
1.4%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şahdağ goals (down), columns = Cəbrayıl goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Şahdağ is 0.70 points better than Cəbrayıl in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şahdağ is 0.15 goals worse than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Şahdağ is 1.07 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Şahdağ or Draw
96.6%
Avg Implied -
86%
10%
3%
covers Şahdağ + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ or Cəbrayıl
89.7%
Avg Implied -
86%
10%
3%
covers Şahdağ + Cəbrayıl
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cəbrayıl
13.7%
Avg Implied -
86%
10%
3%
covers Draw + Cəbrayıl
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5
Over
95.3%
Under
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 3.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Şahdağ, so a minus line means Şahdağ give that many goals of a start and Cəbrayıl receive them. At -1, Şahdağ must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Şahdağ win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ -2
47.9%
Draw -2
21.5%
Cəbrayıl +2
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ -1
69.4%
Draw -1
17.0%
Cəbrayıl +1
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ +1
96.6%
Draw +1
2.6%
Cəbrayıl -1
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ +2
99.2%
Draw +2
0.7%
Cəbrayıl -2
0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Şahdağ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.82
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.47
0.89
0.33
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (30)
0.63
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Şahdağ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.93
0.43
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
0.26
1.11
0.33
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cəbrayıl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.33
vs Stronger (30)
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Şimal
Zaqatala
MOIK
Baku Sportinq