The clash between Şahdağ and Karvan is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 31% for a draw and 37% for Karvan to lift the trophy. Expect roughly 2.3 goals in total, with the most probable scoreline being 1-1, which carries a 14.6% chance. Şahdağ, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded, while Karvan, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.29 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.0%). Şahdağ’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 1-0 win over MOIK, contrasts with Karvan’s fresh victory, a 3-0 triumph over Baku Sportinq, adding to the intrigue of this evenly matched fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Şahdağ win
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win
37.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Şahdağ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.97
1.64
1.07
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
1.36
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.74
2.00
0.67
0.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.97
0.87
1.80
0.67
2.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
2.47
0.57
2.00
0.38
2.88
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.47
1.12
1.62
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
10.9%
1-0
9.7%
1-2
8.0%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
6.0%
Şahdağ goals ↓
Karvan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.7%
15%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.0%
7.2%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.2%
2.6%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şahdağ goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Şahdağ is 0.88 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şahdağ is 1.35 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.69).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Şahdağ is 0.25 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Şahdağ or Draw
62.6%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
37%
covers Şahdağ + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ or Karvan
69.0%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
37%
covers Şahdağ + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Karvan
68.4%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
37%
covers Draw + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5
Over
66.2%
Under
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5
Over
29.6%
Under
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Şahdağ, so a minus line means Şahdağ give that many goals of a start and Karvan receive them. At -1, Şahdağ must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Şahdağ win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ -2
3.9%
Draw -2
9.0%
Karvan +2
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ -1
13.0%
Draw -1
18.6%
Karvan +1
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ +1
62.6%
Draw +1
20.8%
Karvan -1
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ +2
83.4%
Draw +2
11.1%
Karvan -2
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Şahdağ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.82
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.47
0.89
0.33
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.47
0.47
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.00
0.43
0.57
0.12
1.38
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.9%
Under 0.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.3%
Under 1.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.9%
Under 2.5
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.7%
Under
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Şahdağ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.93
0.43
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
0.26
1.11
0.33
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karvan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.40
1.33
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
1.47
0.14
1.43
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.93
0.62
1.25
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.2%
Under 1.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.0%
Under 2.5
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Şimal
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
MOIK
Baku Sportinq