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Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir Result & Analysis

Date: 05/05/2026
Time: 12:00
Final 2-0
Şahdağ
Şahdağ
Vs
37%
29%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şahdağ win✓ Hit
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir win✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W12L11D01L10W30W00D10W10WA·ŞIM19/02H·ZAQ25/02A·SAF05/03H·MOI12/03A·SAF18/03H·ŞIM03/04A·DIF09/04H·CƏB15/04A·ZAQ22/04A·MOI29/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.261.191.541.381.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.921.831.002.330.831.33
vs Weaker (15)1.530.672.000.571.120.75
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-722D20W10W01L11D52W30W21W12L71WA·SAF19/02H·MOI25/02A·BAK05/03H·SƏB12/03A·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.032.200.871.931.20
vs Stronger (24)1.921.042.001.001.831.08
vs Similar (3)3.331.003.500.503.002.00
vs Weaker (3)2.001.002.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.6%
Under 1.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.4%
Under 3.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
9.0%
1-0
8.9%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.9%
2-0 ✓
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
Şahdağ goals ↓
Mingəçevir goals →
01234
09.0%8.4%6.1%2.5%0.8%
18.9%14%7.9%3.3%1.0%
26.6%8.3%5.2%2.1%0.7%
32.9%3.6%2.2%0.9%0.3%
40.9%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şahdağ goals (down), columns = Mingəçevir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Şahdağ is 0.30 points worse than Mingəçevir in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şahdağ is 0.70 goals worse than Mingəçevir in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Şahdağ and Mingəçevir are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D00D10W01L10W30W00D00D00DA·ŞIM19/02H·ZAQ25/02A·SAF05/03H·MOI12/03A·SAF18/03H·ŞIM03/04A·DIF09/04H·CƏB15/04A·ZAQ22/04A·MOI29/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.690.770.570.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.421.080.671.330.170.83
vs Weaker (15)0.800.400.710.290.880.50
Clean sheet %52% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W00D01L11D10W00D10W02L20WA·SAF19/02H·MOI25/02A·BAK05/03H·SƏB12/03A·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.530.870.330.730.73
vs Stronger (24)0.710.460.830.420.580.50
vs Similar (3)1.330.671.000.002.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.000.001.001.50
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W12L01L00D00D00D00D10W10WA·ŞIM19/02H·ZAQ25/02A·SAF05/03H·MOI12/03A·SAF18/03H·ŞIM03/04A·DIF09/04H·CƏB15/04A·ZAQ22/04A·MOI29/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.480.850.620.430.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.500.750.331.000.670.50
vs Weaker (15)0.730.271.290.290.250.25
Clean sheet %59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W10W10W00D00D42W30W11D10W51WA·SAF19/02H·MOI25/02A·BAK05/03H·SƏB12/03A·BAK18/03H·SAF03/04A·ŞIM09/04H·DIF16/04A·CƏB22/04H·ZAQ29/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.270.501.330.531.200.47
vs Stronger (24)1.210.581.170.581.250.58
vs Similar (3)2.000.332.500.501.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (5)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (8)
€3m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ŞAH wins
2
Draws
0
MIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir · H/A from ŞAH
DateH/AGameScore
24/12/25AMingəçevir Vs ŞAH1-1
01/10/25HŞAH Vs Mingəçevir0-0

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/26AMOIK Vs ŞAH0-1
22/04/26AZaqatala Vs ŞAH0-1
15/04/26HŞAH Vs Cəbrayıl0-0
09/04/26ADifai Ağsu Vs ŞAH0-3
03/04/26HŞAH Vs Şimal1-0
18/03/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞAH1-0
12/03/26HŞAH Vs MOIK1-1
05/03/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞAH2-1
25/02/26HŞAH Vs Zaqatala1-0
19/02/26AŞimal Vs ŞAH0-1

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/26HMIN Vs Zaqatala7-1
22/04/26ACəbrayıl Vs MIN2-1
16/04/26HMIN Vs Difai Ağsu2-1
09/04/26AŞimal Vs MIN0-3
03/04/26HMIN Vs Safa Baku5-2
18/03/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MIN1-1
12/03/26HMIN Vs Səbail0-1
05/03/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MIN0-1
25/02/26HMIN Vs MOIK2-0
19/02/26ASafa Baku Vs MIN2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Şahdağ
Şahdağ
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.44
HomeWWDWD1.46
AwayLLWWW1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %41%38%43%
AVG goals2.442.922.00
Over 1.5 %63%69%57%
Over 2.5 %48%54%43%
Over 3.5 %26%46%7%
Scored1.261.541.00
Conceded1.191.381.00
BTTS44%46%43%
Clean Sheet37%38%36%
Corners---
Cards---
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW1.60
HomeWLWWW1.79
AwayDWDWL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%50%38%
AVG goals2.682.502.85
Over 1.5 %72%67%77%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.521.671.38
Conceded1.160.831.46
BTTS46%46%46%
Clean Sheet40%46%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1031.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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