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Şahdağ vs Safa Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 27/11/2025
Time: 10:30
Final 0-2
Şahdağ
Şahdağ
Vs
31%
24%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Safa Baku
Safa Baku
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şahdağ win✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L21W23L02L00D21W13L00D42W01LH·ARA29/10A·MOI11/09H·BAK18/09A·SƏB24/09H·MIN01/10A·DIF16/10A·CƏB23/10A·ŞIM29/10H·ŞIM06/11A·ZAQ20/11
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.701.502.250.831.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.002.501.003.501.001.50
vs Weaker (6)1.171.172.001.000.751.25
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D20W40W30W41W21W22D30W32W11DH·DIF30/10H·ŞIM12/09A·ZAQ18/09H·CƏB24/09H·MOI02/10A·BAK17/10H·SƏB23/10A·CƏB28/10A·MIN05/11H·DIF22/11
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.600.902.331.003.000.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)3.001.004.001.002.001.00
vs Weaker (8)2.500.882.001.003.330.67
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.3%
Under 1.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.9%
Under 2.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.6%
No
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.2%
2-2
6.9%
1-3
5.7%
0-2 ✓
5.6%
0-1
4.9%
2-3
4.5%
Şahdağ goals ↓
Safa Baku goals →
01234
03.9%4.9%5.6%3.6%1.7%
13.8%10%8.8%5.7%2.7%
23.7%7.2%6.9%4.5%2.2%
31.9%3.8%3.6%2.3%1.1%
40.8%1.5%1.4%0.9%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şahdağ goals (down), columns = Safa Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Şahdağ is 0.52 points worse than Safa Baku in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 2.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şahdağ is 0.59 goals worse than Safa Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.93).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Şahdağ is 0.22 goals worse than Safa Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D13L02L00D21W02L00D11D00DH·ARA29/10A·MOI11/09H·BAK18/09A·SƏB24/09H·MIN01/10A·DIF16/10A·CƏB23/10A·ŞIM29/10H·ŞIM06/11A·ZAQ20/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.100.501.500.330.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.251.750.502.500.001.00
vs Weaker (6)0.500.670.500.500.500.75
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W00D11D20W22D20W21W10WH·DIF30/10H·ŞIM12/09A·ZAQ18/09H·CƏB24/09H·MOI02/10A·BAK17/10H·SƏB23/10A·CƏB28/10A·MIN05/11H·DIF22/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.600.830.831.750.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.500.501.001.002.000.00
vs Weaker (8)1.120.620.800.801.670.33
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W10W00D00D00D11D00D31W01LH·ARA29/10A·MOI11/09H·BAK18/09A·SƏB24/09H·MIN01/10A·DIF16/10A·CƏB23/10A·ŞIM29/10H·ŞIM06/11A·ZAQ20/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.601.000.750.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)0.750.750.501.001.000.50
vs Weaker (6)0.670.501.500.500.250.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W30W30W30W01L00D10W11D01LH·DIF30/10H·ŞIM12/09A·ZAQ18/09H·CƏB24/09H·MOI02/10A·BAK17/10H·SƏB23/10A·CƏB28/10A·MIN05/11H·DIF22/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.301.500.171.250.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.500.503.000.000.001.00
vs Weaker (8)1.380.251.200.201.670.33
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (5)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (8)
€3m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ŞAH wins
0
Draws
0
SB wins

Head-to-head

Şahdağ vs Safa Baku · H/A from ŞAH
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

ŞahdağŞahdağ

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/11/25AZaqatala Vs ŞAH1-0
06/11/25HŞAH Vs Şimal4-2
29/10/25AŞimal Vs ŞAH0-0
23/10/25ACəbrayıl Vs ŞAH3-1
16/10/25ADifai Ağsu Vs ŞAH1-2
01/10/25HŞAH Vs Mingəçevir0-0
24/09/25ASəbail Vs ŞAH2-0
18/09/25HŞAH Vs Baku Sportinq2-3
11/09/25AMOIK Vs ŞAH1-2
29/10/24HŞAH Vs Araz0-4

Safa BakuSafa Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HSB Vs Difai Ağsu1-1
05/11/25AMingəçevir Vs SB2-3
28/10/25ACəbrayıl Vs SB0-3
23/10/25HSB Vs Səbail2-2
17/10/25ABaku Sportinq Vs SB1-2
02/10/25HSB Vs MOIK4-1
24/09/25HSB Vs Cəbrayıl3-0
18/09/25AZaqatala Vs SB0-4
12/09/25HSB Vs Şimal2-0
30/10/24HSB Vs Difai Ağsu2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Şahdağ
Şahdağ
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWL1.10
HomeLLDW1.00
AwayLWLDL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%25%33%
AVG goals2.803.752.17
Over 1.5 %70%75%67%
Over 2.5 %60%75%50%
Over 3.5 %40%75%17%
Scored1.101.500.83
Conceded1.702.251.33
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet20%25%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Safa Baku
Safa Baku
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWD2.40
HomeWWWDD2.00
AwayWWWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%50%100%
AVG goals3.503.333.75
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %80%67%100%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored2.602.333.00
Conceded0.901.000.75
BTTS60%67%50%
Clean Sheet40%33%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1031.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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