Şahdağ is the clear favourite, with a 57% chance of victory, 24% for a draw and 19% for a Şəbail win. The model expects 2.9 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 11.4% probability. In recent form Şahdağ has remained unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding 2.14 at home against teams of similar strength. Şəbail, on the other hand, has averaged 1.33 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded on the road versus comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Home +2 handicap (92.9%), Under 5.5 (92.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (87.2%) and Home over 0.5 goals (85.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Şahdağ win
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Səbail win
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Şahdağ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.97
1.64
1.07
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
1.36
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.74
2.00
0.67
0.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.90
1.62
0.81
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.67
1.22
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.78
2.25
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.7%
Under 2.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.7%
1-0
9.4%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.1%
3-0
6.0%
1-2
5.5%
Şahdağ goals ↓
Səbail goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
4.7%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
1
9.4%
12%
5.5%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.9%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.0%
6.1%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.8%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şahdağ goals (down), columns = Səbail goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Şahdağ is 0.26 points worse than Səbail in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.85).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şahdağ is 0.37 goals worse than Səbail in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Şahdağ is 0.22 goals worse than Səbail in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.78).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Şahdağ or Draw
80.5%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Şahdağ + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ or Səbail
75.3%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Şahdağ + Səbail
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Səbail
44.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Səbail
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5
Over
84.3%
Under
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5
Over
55.2%
Under
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5
Over
28.3%
Under
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 3.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Şahdağ, so a minus line means Şahdağ give that many goals of a start and Səbail receive them. At -1, Şahdağ must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Şahdağ win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ -2
15.3%
Draw -2
17.4%
Səbail +2
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ -1
32.8%
Draw -1
23.0%
Səbail +1
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ +1
80.5%
Draw +1
12.2%
Səbail -1
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ +2
92.7%
Draw +2
5.3%
Səbail -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Şahdağ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.82
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.47
0.89
0.33
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.69
0.12
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.27
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.22
1.00
0.00
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Şahdağ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.93
0.43
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
0.26
1.11
0.33
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Səbail
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.69
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.67
1.11
1.00
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Şimal
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
MOIK
Baku Sportinq