Şahdağ’s recent unbeaten run of five games, ending in a 1-1 draw with Baku Sportinq, underpins the model’s confidence in a home win. The probability of a Şahdağ victory sits at 78%, with a draw at 16% and an away win only 6%. The favourite outcome is a 2-0 win for Şahdağ, the most likely scoreline with a 14.1% chance. The expected total goals is 3.1, but the most probable total is two goals, at 23%. Şahdağ’s home form shows an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded against weaker opponents, while Zaqatala, playing away against a stronger side, averages only 0.91 scored and 1.36 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Under 7.5 (98.6%), Home +2 handicap (98.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (96.3%), Home or Draw (93.5%), Home +1 handicap (93.5%), and Home over 0.5 goals (91.5%). The match is projected to be a high-scoring affair for Şahdağ, who is favoured to win decisively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Şahdağ win
75.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
17.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala win
7.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Şahdağ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.97
1.64
1.07
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
1.36
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.74
2.00
0.67
0.90
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.73
1.00
1.79
0.81
1.69
vs Stronger (23)
0.91
1.61
0.92
1.83
0.91
1.36
vs Similar (3)
1.00
3.33
2.00
3.00
0.50
3.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.1%
3-0
11.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
8.8%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.0%
4-0
6.7%
0-0
5.7%
Şahdağ goals ↓
Zaqatala goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
2.3%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
11%
8.1%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
2
14%
8.8%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
3
11%
7.0%
2.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
6.7%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şahdağ goals (down), columns = Zaqatala goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Şahdağ is 0.56 points better than Zaqatala in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Şahdağ is 0.33 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Şahdağ is 0.63 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Şahdağ or Draw
92.9%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
7%
covers Şahdağ + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ or Zaqatala
83.0%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
7%
covers Şahdağ + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zaqatala
24.1%
Avg Implied -
76%
17%
7%
covers Draw + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5
Over
90.8%
Under
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 3.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Şahdağ, so a minus line means Şahdağ give that many goals of a start and Zaqatala receive them. At -1, Şahdağ must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Şahdağ win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ -2
31.2%
Draw -2
22.4%
Zaqatala +2
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ -1
53.6%
Draw -1
22.3%
Zaqatala +1
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ +1
92.9%
Draw +1
5.3%
Zaqatala -1
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Şahdağ)
Şahdağ +2
98.1%
Draw +2
1.5%
Zaqatala -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Şahdağ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.64
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.82
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.47
0.89
0.33
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.43
0.93
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (23)
0.30
0.70
0.25
0.92
0.36
0.45
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Şahdağ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.93
0.43
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.63
0.26
1.11
0.33
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.57
0.86
0.56
1.19
vs Stronger (23)
0.61
0.91
0.67
0.92
0.55
0.91
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şahdağ over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şahdağ over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Şimal
Cəbrayıl
MOIK
Baku Sportinq