Saint Étienne’s recent 3-game winning streak, highlighted by a 4-0 rout of Grenoble, gives the home side a psychological lift that the model’s 37% home-win probability reflects. Montpellier, unbeaten in five with a 0-0 draw against Boulogne, still faces a 29% chance of victory, while a 34% draw remains the most likely outcome. The model favours a home win as the single most probable result.
The expected goal count is 1.9, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-0 for Saint Étienne, carrying a 13.8% chance. Saint Étienne averages 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents; Montpellier averages 1.08 goals scored and 0.46 conceded on the road against the same tier.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 5.5 (98.6% with a 10% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.4% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9% with a 13% edge), and Over 19.5 fouls (96.6%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Saint Etienne win
36.9%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.54
Edge
-23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.61
Dafabet
1.57
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Draw
34.1%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.06
Edge
+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.24
Dafabet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Montpellier win
29.0%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.40
Edge
+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.80
Bet365
5.75
Betano
5.70
Dafabet
5.60
BetVictor
5.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Saint Etienne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.90
2.41
0.65
1.15
1.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.07
1.13
1.38
0.88
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (15)
2.67
0.67
3.33
0.44
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.80
1.45
1.18
1.21
0.58
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.29
0.86
1.62
1.50
1.08
0.46
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.33
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.6%
@ 1.19-19.7%
Under 1.5
41.4%
@ 4.31+19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.41
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.3%
@ 1.65-26.6%
Under 2.5
69.7%
@ 2.17+26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Under
1xBet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.22
Betano
2.22
Betfair
2.15
10Bet
2.15
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.9%
@ 2.63-22.6%
Under 3.5
87.1%
@ 1.46+22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
BetVictor
1.45
Both teams to score
Yes
39.3%
@ 1.71-15.1%
No
60.7%
@ 2.04+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
No
1xBet
2.08
Unibet
2.05
Betano
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.0%@ 12.44+12.4%
1-1
14.8%@ 7.36+8.7%
1-0
13.8%@ 7.33+7.7%
0-1
11.6%@ 14.71+8.6%
2-0
7.8%@ 7.51+1.9%
2-1
7.0%@ 7.38+0.9%
1-2
6.0%@ 15.15+3.0%
0-2
5.8%@ 29.39+4.2%
Saint Etienne goals ↓
Montpellier goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
7.8%
7.0%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
3
2.7%
2.4%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Saint Etienne goals (down), columns = Montpellier goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Saint Etienne is 0.28 points better than Montpellier in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Saint Etienne is 0.53 goals better than Montpellier in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Saint Etienne is 0.19 goals worse than Montpellier in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Saint Etienne is 7.1 percentage points better than Montpellier in terms of average possession (59% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Saint Etienne
For 5.4 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montpellier
For 5.4 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 14.3 · Total 30.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Saint Etienne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
10.0
8.4
3.4
3.5
3.3
26.0
26.8
25.3
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
11.0
13.0
0.5
0.0
1.0
22.0
27.0
17.0
vs Similar (24)
9.2
10.2
8.2
3.8
3.7
3.8
26.3
26.8
25.8
vs Weaker (24)
9.0
9.7
8.2
3.3
3.7
3.0
26.1
26.7
25.5
% over line
38%
50%
25%
46%
56%
36%
83%
83%
83%
% under line
62%
50%
75%
54%
44%
64%
17%
17%
17%
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
10.0
4.1
4.4
3.9
30.0
31.5
28.8
vs Stronger (3)
9.7
9.0
10.0
3.3
2.0
4.0
25.3
25.0
25.5
vs Similar (35)
9.9
9.8
9.9
4.2
4.8
3.7
30.0
31.9
28.5
vs Weaker (12)
8.3
6.5
10.4
4.0
3.7
4.3
31.4
31.5
31.2
% over line
50%
45%
54%
66%
64%
68%
96%
100%
92%
% under line
50%
55%
46%
34%
36%
32%
4%
0%
8%
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.2
Rodez
10.0
Metz
9.5
Grenoble
9.5
PAU
9.4
Saint Etienne
9.4
Montpellier
9.4
Nancy
9.4
Dijon
9.3
Clermont Foot
9.2
Nantes
9.2
Sochaux
9.2
Guingamp
9.1
Reims
8.6
Annecy
8.6
Boulogne
8.5
Dunkerque
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.6
Nantes
4.4
Boulogne
4.4
PAU
4.4
Sochaux
4.2
Annecy
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Reims
4.1
Rodez
4.1
Laval
4.0
Nancy
4.0
RED Star FC 93
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Metz
3.8
Clermont Foot
3.8
Grenoble
3.8
Dijon
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.8
Nancy
29.1
Boulogne
28.3
Laval
28.3
Annecy
28.3
Guingamp
27.6
Dijon
27.6
Clermont Foot
26.7
Nantes
26.7
RED Star FC 93
26.7
Saint Etienne
26.3
Sochaux
26.1
Dunkerque
25.8
Grenoble
25.8
Rodez
25.7
PAU
25.6
Reims
24.6
Metz
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.6%
@ 1.79-1.2%
Under 9.5
49.4%
@ 1.93+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Unibet
1.65
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.5%
Under 3.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
92.0%
Under 21.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Saint Etienne or Draw
71.0%
Avg Implied 82.5% · @ 1.13
Edge
-11.5%
37%
34%
29%
covers Saint Etienne + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Saint Etienne or Montpellier
65.9%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
-12.2%
37%
34%
29%
covers Saint Etienne + Montpellier
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Draw or Montpellier
63.1%
Avg Implied 39.5% · @ 2.37
Edge
+23.7%
37%
34%
29%
covers Draw + Montpellier
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Saint Etienne over/under 0.5
Over
64.5%
@ 1.10-19.7%
Under
35.5%
@ 5.88+19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Under
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Saint Etienne over/under 1.5
Over
27.7%
@ 1.56-31.9%
Under
72.3%
@ 2.30+31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Under
1xBet
2.41
Pinnacle
2.38
10Bet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.30
Saint Etienne over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
@ 2.75-25.1%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.40+25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Saint Etienne over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
@ 5.54-14.8%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.12+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.10
1xBet
5.05
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Montpellier over/under 0.5
Over
58.8%
@ 1.51-2.6%
Under
41.2%
@ 2.41+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
Unibet
2.45
1xBet
2.40
Betano
2.40
BetVictor
2.40
Montpellier over/under 1.5
Over
22.3%
@ 3.55-3.9%
Under
77.7%
@ 1.26+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.63
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Under
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Montpellier over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
@ 9.44-3.9%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Montpellier over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
@ 23.00-3.0%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Saint Etienne, so a minus line means Saint Etienne give that many goals of a start and Montpellier receive them. At -1, Saint Etienne must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Saint Etienne win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Saint Etienne)
Saint Etienne -2
4.4%
@ 4.53-15.4%
Draw -2
10.5%
@ 4.47-9.5%
Montpellier +2
85.0%
@ 1.49+24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Away
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.44
Handicap -1 (Saint Etienne)
Saint Etienne -1
15.0%
@ 2.42-21.9%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.54-3.3%
Montpellier +1
63.1%
@ 2.35+25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.48
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Away
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.23
Handicap +1 (Saint Etienne)
Saint Etienne +1
71.0%
@ 1.14-9.2%
Draw +1
18.6%
@ 7.17+5.8%
Montpellier -1
10.4%
@ 13.00+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
6.00
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
10.00
Handicap +2 (Saint Etienne)
Saint Etienne +2
89.6%
@ 1.03-2.9%
Draw +2
7.7%
@ 18.00+2.4%
Montpellier -2
2.7%
@ 42.50+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
17.00
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Saint Etienne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.33
1.24
0.29
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.33
0.38
0.38
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.33
2.00
0.22
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.64
0.64
0.37
0.16
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.43
0.88
0.88
0.38
0.15
vs Weaker (8)
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.6%
@ 1.31-3.9%
Under 0.5
32.4%
@ 3.27+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.30
1xBet
3.28
10Bet
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.8%
@ 2.40-6.9%
Under 1.5
68.2%
@ 1.52+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.47
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
BetVictor
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.6%
@ 5.73-6.7%
Under 2.5
90.4%
@ 1.11+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.60
William Hil
5.50
1xBet
5.05
Under
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Saint Etienne over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.8%
@ 1.57-7.1%
Under
48.2%
@ 2.26+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Unibet
1.56
1xBet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.33
1xBet
2.32
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Saint Etienne over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.0%
@ 3.73-11.9%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.23+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.80
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Saint Etienne over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.8%
@ 9.42-7.1%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Montpellier over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.6%
@ 2.62-2.7%
Under
67.4%
@ 1.43+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.60
Unibet
2.45
Under
Unibet
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Montpellier over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
@ 9.42-2.6%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Montpellier over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Saint Etienne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.18
0.35
0.54
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.33
1.33
0.22
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.82
0.55
0.84
0.42
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.62
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Saint Etienne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.18+0.4%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 4.46-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
William Hil
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.9%
@ 1.85-6.3%
Under 1.5
56.1%
@ 1.87+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 3.62-9.2%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.25+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.34
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Saint Etienne over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.7%
@ 1.38-5.8%
Under
38.3%
@ 2.85+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Under
10Bet
2.88
1xBet
2.85
Betano
2.82
Saint Etienne over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.8%
@ 2.75-10.9%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.40+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Saint Etienne over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.1%
@ 6.63-7.9%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.08+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Montpellier over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.0%
@ 2.14-2.4%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.64+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.60
Montpellier over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.8%
@ 6.93-3.6%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.07+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Montpellier over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.9%
@ 19.25-3.1%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
Under 6.5
99.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
Under 5.5
98.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+9.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
-
+14.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+7.1%
Over 19.5 fouls
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.4%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
+15.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+7.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+3.9%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+6.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+3.6%
Home +2 handicap
89.6%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-2.9%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.23
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
-
-
+11.9%
Over 23.5 fouls
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.5%
1.25
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
-
+9.2%
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
+0.4%
Away under 1.5 goals
77.7%
1.26
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+3.9%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.40
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
-
-
+10.9%
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
1.31
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Unibet
1.23
-
-
+2.5%
Home or Draw
71.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
-11.5%
Home +1 handicap
71.0%
1.14
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-9.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Saint Etienne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Irvin Cardona75%
Thierno Ballo75%
Jakob Breum67%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Áron Csongvai25%
Augustine Boakye25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakob Breum67%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Maxime Bernauer25%
Irvin Cardona0%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Thierno Ballo0%
Áron Csongvai0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Augustine Boakye0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jakob Breum67%
Irvin Cardona50%
Thierno Ballo50%
Augustine Boakye50%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Áron Csongvai25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Joshua Duffus0%
Kevin Pedro0%
Adam Baallal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thierno Ballo50%
Jakob Breum33%
Irvin Cardona25%
Zuriko Davitashvili25%
Joshua Duffus25%
Kevin Pedro25%
Gautier Larsonneur0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Maxime Bernauer0%
Tamar Svetlin0%
Áron Csongvai0%
Sohaib Nair0%
Augustine Boakye0%
Adam Baallal0%
Montpellier
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yael Mouanga33%
Nicolas Pays25%
Yanis Issoufou25%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Laciné Megnan-Pave0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daylam Meddah67%
Yael Mouanga67%
Naoufel El Hannach33%
Gregory Ayem33%
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Nordan Mukiele25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Théo Sainte-Luce25%
Laciné Megnan-Pave25%
Julien Laporte0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Laciné Megnan-Pave50%
Julien Laporte0%
Théo Sainte-Luce0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Simon Ngapandouetnbu0%
Nicolas Pays0%
Yael Mouanga0%
Yanis Issoufou0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Naoufel El Hannach0%
Noah Vidal0%
Hichem Abderrebi0%
Daryll Benlahlou0%
Gregory Ayem0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Saint Etienne's squad is €64m more valuable than Montpellier's (€93m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Saint Etienne's attack is €43m more valuable than Montpellier's (€54m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Saint Etienne's midfield is €5m more valuable than Montpellier's (€11m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Saint Etienne's defence is €16m more valuable than Montpellier's (€28m vs €12m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Reims
Rodez
Nancy
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes