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Salaspils vs Grobiņa Result & Analysis

Date: 05/11/2022
Time: 11:00
Final 2-3
Salaspils
Salaspils
Vs
18%
18%
64%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Salaspils win✗ Miss
17.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa win✓ Hit
63.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SalaspilsSalaspils

Last 10 – goals for & against
100-1092W01L12L00D01L00D110L32W20W24LH·SMI28/08H·SKA03/09H·PRO10/09H·TUK18/09H·DIN25/09A·RIG01/10H·VAL08/10A·RĪG15/10H·RĒZ22/10A·FS 30/10
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.582.751.502.421.673.08
vs Stronger (4)1.252.501.002.501.502.50
vs Similar (14)2.003.432.002.712.004.14
vs Weaker (6)0.831.330.671.671.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-993W60W00D32W40W50W12L72W11D60WH·SAL24/08A·RĒZ27/08H·FS 04/09A·TUK11/09A·SAL17/09H·DIN01/10A·JDF08/10H·SMI16/10A·SKA22/10H·PRO29/10
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
4.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game3.211.423.921.332.501.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)3.421.474.001.602.781.33
vs Weaker (5)2.401.203.500.001.672.00
Clean sheet %38% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Salaspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%2%05%114%219%320%416%523%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.3%
Under 1.5
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.8%
Under 2.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
71.4%
No
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.4%
1-3
7.6%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
0-2
5.9%
2-3 ✓
5.4%
0-3
5.3%
1-4
5.1%
Salaspils goals ↓
Grobiņa goals →
01234
02.3%3.8%5.9%5.3%3.6%
11.7%6.9%8.4%7.6%5.1%
21.7%4.5%6.0%5.4%3.6%
30.8%2.1%2.8%2.6%1.7%
40.3%0.8%1.0%0.9%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Salaspils goals (down), columns = Grobiņa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FS Jelgava
2.81
Riga FC II
2.31
Grobiņa
2.04
Valmiera II
2.00
Rīgas FS II
1.77
JDFS Alberts
1.73
Skanste
1.42
Progress / AFA Olaine
0.96
Salaspils
0.96
Saldus SS/Leevon
0.88
Tukums II
0.85
Dinamo Rīga
0.85
Rēzekne FA
0.81
Smiltene
0.62
Salaspils is 1.08 points worse than Grobiņa in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 2.04).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valmiera II
3.46
Grobiņa
3.27
Riga FC II
3.23
FS Jelgava
2.92
Rīgas FS II
2.88
Salaspils
1.54
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.46
JDFS Alberts
1.46
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.31
Skanste
1.31
Rēzekne FA
1.27
Tukums II
1.27
Smiltene
0.92
Dinamo Rīga
0.65
Salaspils is 1.73 goals worse than Grobiņa in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 3.27).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FS Jelgava
0.50
JDFS Alberts
0.96
Riga FC II
1.04
Valmiera II
1.42
Grobiņa
1.50
Skanste
1.58
Rīgas FS II
1.65
Saldus SS/Leevon
1.88
Dinamo Rīga
2.19
Tukums II
2.54
Rēzekne FA
2.69
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.77
Salaspils
2.88
Smiltene
3.35
Salaspils is 1.38 goals worse than Grobiņa in terms of goals conceded per game (2.88 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SalaspilsSalaspils

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
80-841W01L10W00D00D00D08L21W00D21WH·SMI28/08H·SKA03/09H·PRO10/09H·TUK18/09H·DIN25/09A·RIG01/10H·VAL08/10A·RĪG15/10H·RĒZ22/10A·FS 30/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.350.501.170.911.55
vs Stronger (4)0.751.500.502.001.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.851.770.711.431.002.17
vs Weaker (6)0.330.330.000.000.670.67
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W30W00D11D10W20W01L31W10W20WH·SAL24/08A·RĒZ27/08H·FS 04/09A·TUK11/09A·SAL17/09H·DIN01/10A·JDF08/10H·SMI16/10A·SKA22/10H·PRO29/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.460.621.830.581.080.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.630.581.900.701.330.44
vs Weaker (5)0.800.801.500.000.331.33
Clean sheet %54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Salaspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Salaspils over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SalaspilsSalaspils

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W00D02L00D01L00D12L11D20W03LH·SMI28/08H·SKA03/09H·PRO10/09H·TUK18/09H·DIN25/09A·RIG01/10H·VAL08/10A·RĪG15/10H·RĒZ22/10A·FS 30/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.961.521.001.250.911.82
vs Stronger (4)0.501.000.500.500.501.50
vs Similar (13)1.311.921.291.291.332.67
vs Weaker (6)0.501.000.671.670.330.33
Clean sheet %26% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Grobiņa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-552W30W00D21W30W30W11D41W01L40WH·SAL24/08A·RĒZ27/08H·FS 04/09A·TUK11/09A·SAL17/09H·DIN01/10A·JDF08/10H·SMI16/10A·SKA22/10H·PRO29/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.750.792.080.751.420.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.790.892.100.901.440.89
vs Weaker (5)1.600.402.000.001.330.67
Clean sheet %42% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Salaspils) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Salaspils over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salaspils over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grobiņa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.577.8%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes71.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (25)
€3m
FJ (23)
€3m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (10)
€1m
FJ (8)
€1m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GRO (6)
€1m
FJ (5)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (10)
€1m
GRO (9)
€1m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SAL wins
0
Draws
1
GRO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Salaspils vs Grobiņa · H/A from SAL
DateH/AGameScore
24/08/22AGrobiņa Vs SAL9-3

SalaspilsSalaspils

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/22AFS Jelgava Vs SAL4-2
22/10/22HSAL Vs Rēzekne FA2-0
15/10/22ARīgas FS II Vs SAL2-3
08/10/22HSAL Vs Valmiera II1-10
01/10/22ARiga FC II Vs SAL0-0
25/09/22HSAL Vs Dinamo Rīga0-1
18/09/22HSAL Vs Tukums II0-0
10/09/22HSAL Vs Progress / AFA Olaine1-2
03/09/22HSAL Vs Skanste0-1
28/08/22HSAL Vs Smiltene9-2

GrobiņaGrobiņa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22HGRO Vs Progress / AFA Olaine6-0
22/10/22ASkanste Vs GRO1-1
16/10/22HGRO Vs Smiltene7-2
08/10/22AJDFS Alberts Vs GRO2-1
01/10/22HGRO Vs Dinamo Rīga5-0
17/09/22ASaldus SS/Leevon Vs GRO0-4
11/09/22ATukums II Vs GRO2-3
04/09/22HGRO Vs FS Jelgava0-0
27/08/22ARēzekne FA Vs GRO0-6
24/08/22HGRO Vs Salaspils9-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Salaspils
Salaspils
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL1.04
HomeLDLLW0.92
AwayWLDWL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%25%33%
AVG goals4.333.924.75
Over 1.5 %79%75%83%
Over 2.5 %71%58%83%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored1.581.501.67
Conceded2.752.423.08
BTTS58%50%67%
Clean Sheet17%17%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.96
HomeWDWWW2.08
AwayWWWLD1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%67%58%
AVG goals4.625.254.00
Over 1.5 %92%83%100%
Over 2.5 %88%83%92%
Over 3.5 %71%75%67%
Scored3.213.922.50
Conceded1.421.331.50
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet38%42%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FS JelgavaFS Jelgava2673
92%
2.8
7613+63
3.4
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1012.90.5
-
2Riga FC IIRiga FC II2660
73%
2.3
8427+57
4.3
92%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.21.0
-
3GrobiņaGrobiņa2653
65%
2.0
8539+46
4.8
92%
88%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.31.5
-
4Valmiera IIValmiera II2652
65%
2.0
9037+53
4.9
88%
77%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.51.4
-
5Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II2646
54%
1.8
7543+32
4.5
92%
77%
73%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.7
-
6JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts2645
50%
1.7
3825+13
2.4
62%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
7SkansteSkanste2637
38%
1.4
3441-7
2.9
81%
58%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
8Progress / AFA OlaineProgress / AFA Olaine2625
27%
1.0
3872-34
4.2
96%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.8
-
9SalaspilsSalaspils2625
27%
1.0
4075-35
4.4
81%
73%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.9
-
10Saldus SS/LeevonSaldus SS/Leevon2623
23%
0.9
3449-15
3.2
85%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
11Tukums IITukums II2622
23%
0.8
3366-33
3.8
85%
73%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.5
-
12Dinamo RīgaDinamo Rīga2622
23%
0.8
1757-40
2.8
69%
50%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
13Rēzekne FARēzekne FA2621
23%
0.8
3370-37
4.0
88%
69%
65%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.7
-
14SmilteneSmiltene2616
15%
0.6
2487-63
4.3
85%
77%
58%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.3
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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