This highly anticipated match between Salford and Chesterfield in England's League Two is finely balanced, with the home win percentage standing at 38%, the draw at 29%, and the away win at 33%. The model's pick is indeed the home win, but the away team has a significant chance of spoiling the party.
The expected total goals is 2.5, with the most likely outcome being a 2-goal match, occurring at a 27% probability. Among the most likely scorelines, a 1-1 draw holds a 14% chance.
Looking at the teams' recent form, Salford has struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.38 goals and conceding 0.5, while Chesterfield has averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1 conceded in away matches against similar opponents.
The model suggests selecting the Under 3.5 goals at 75.4%, and Over 1.5 goals at 72.9%. Suggested picks also include the home win at 38%, the draw at 29%, and the away win at 33%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Salford failed to convert their pre-match favourite, the model’s home win at 38 %, and Chesterfield snatched a 1-0 victory. The model’s call was wrong, but its other selections proved remarkably accurate. Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.6 %, Under 6.5 at 98.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.6 %, and Under 5.5 at 95.7 %. Salford’s recent form, three straight defeats, ended with a 0-1 loss, while Chesterfield, fresh from a win, secured the away triumph.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Salford win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied 45.6% · @ 2.03
Edge
-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.08
Dafabet
2.07
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.28
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.47
BetVictor
3.40
Dafabet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Chesterfield win✓ Hit
32.9%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.53
Edge
+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.80
Betano
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Salford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.17
1.36
0.93
1.06
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.25
1.18
1.36
0.93
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.93
1.13
0.93
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.33
0.93
1.14
0.71
1.50
1.12
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.93
1.12
1.12
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.9%
@ 1.33+2.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
@ 3.09-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 2.03-0.2%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.74+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.08
Pinnacle
2.07
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
@ 3.55-1.5%
Under 3.5
75.4%
@ 1.26+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.75
888Sport
3.75
Pinnacle
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Under
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.5%
@ 1.81+1.2%
No
47.5%
@ 1.90-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Superbet
1.83
No
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.87+6.5%
0-0
9.3%@ 8.32+4.0%
1-0
9.3%@ 6.46+2.4%
0-1 ✓
8.5%@ 9.31+3.7%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.00+2.8%
1-2
7.7%@ 11.18+3.7%
2-0
6.9%@ 9.16+2.1%
0-2
5.9%@ 16.88+3.3%
Salford goals ↓
Chesterfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
8.5%
5.9%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.3%
14%
7.7%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.9%
8.4%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.0%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Salford goals (down), columns = Chesterfield goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Salford is 0.05 points better than Chesterfield in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Salford is 0.17 goals worse than Chesterfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Salford is 0.02 goals better than Chesterfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Salford is 7.6 percentage points worse than Chesterfield in terms of average possession (50% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Salford
For 5.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 14.9 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chesterfield
For 6.0 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 12.8 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Salford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.2
9.4
3.6
3.4
3.9
24.7
24.4
25.0
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
-
13.0
2.0
-
2.0
14.0
-
14.0
vs Similar (47)
9.7
10.2
9.1
3.7
3.4
4.1
25.1
24.6
25.6
vs Weaker (2)
10.5
10.0
11.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
21.0
21.0
21.0
% over line
55%
60%
50%
42%
31%
54%
69%
68%
71%
% under line
45%
40%
50%
58%
69%
46%
31%
32%
29%
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.8
4.0
4.5
3.5
21.9
21.2
22.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
10.2
10.4
9.9
4.3
4.6
3.9
22.2
21.5
22.9
vs Weaker (22)
10.5
11.3
9.7
3.7
4.4
3.0
21.5
20.7
22.4
% over line
59%
56%
62%
58%
68%
48%
49%
44%
54%
% under line
41%
44%
38%
42%
32%
52%
51%
56%
46%
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.94+6.2%
Under 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.79-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.5%
Under 21.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Salford or Draw✗ Miss
67.1%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
-6.4%
38%
29%
33%
covers Salford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betano
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Salford or Chesterfield✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.5%
38%
29%
33%
covers Salford + Chesterfield
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Draw or Chesterfield✓ Hit
62.3%
Avg Implied 54.4% · @ 1.71
Edge
+7.9%
38%
29%
33%
covers Draw + Chesterfield
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.71
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Salford over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.0%
@ 1.22-3.0%
Under
27.0%
@ 3.88+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
4.00
Betano
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Salford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.14-5.8%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.65+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.22
888Sport
2.20
Superbet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Under
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.66
Salford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.61-5.6%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.16+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
888Sport
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.55
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Salford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 11.44-3.9%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.04+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Chesterfield over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.1%
@ 1.44+5.8%
Under
29.9%
@ 2.61-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.73
Unibet
2.60
888Sport
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
Chesterfield over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.0%
@ 3.18+4.8%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.31-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.28
Superbet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
888Sport
3.20
Under
Betano
1.33
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Chesterfield over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 8.31+1.0%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.05-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
888Sport
9.00
Superbet
8.20
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Chesterfield over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 23.25-0.7%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
888Sport
29.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Salford, so a minus line means Salford give that many goals of a start and Chesterfield receive them. At -1, Salford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Salford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Salford)Actual: Chesterfield
Salford -2
6.2%
@ 8.33-4.5%
Draw -2
11.4%
@ 5.72-4.2%
Chesterfield +2
82.4%
@ 1.21+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Unibet
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Salford)Actual: Chesterfield
Salford -1
17.6%
@ 3.79-6.0%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 3.60-4.7%
Chesterfield +1
62.3%
@ 1.74+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.55
Away
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Handicap +1 (Salford)Actual: Draw
Salford +1
67.1%
@ 1.26-3.8%
Draw +1
18.5%
@ 5.02+0.7%
Chesterfield -1
14.4%
@ 7.92+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.20
Handicap +2 (Salford)Actual: Salford
Salford +2
85.6%
@ 1.06-2.0%
Draw +2
9.7%
@ 11.47+1.6%
Chesterfield -2
4.7%
@ 21.33+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
9.40
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
18.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Salford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.43
0.07
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.46
0.43
0.07
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.80
0.53
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.67
0.71
0.57
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.53
0.33
0.88
0.50
0.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.41+1.5%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 2.70-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Superbet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.2%
@ 2.92+0.3%
Under 1.5
67.8%
@ 1.36-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
10Bet
2.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 7.53-1.1%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.06+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Salford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.7%
@ 1.92-3.5%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.79+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Salford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.65-4.7%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.11+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
Betano
5.60
Superbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Salford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 16.25-3.5%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.8%
@ 2.46+4.1%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.49-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Marathonbet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 8.56-0.2%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.04+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.90
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 36.00-97.9%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Salford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.93
0.86
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.75
0.71
0.93
0.86
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chesterfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.33
0.40
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.27
0.43
0.14
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.60
0.25
0.62
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.1%
Under 0.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.6%
Under 1.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.9%
Under 2.5
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Salford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.9%
1.08
Betfair
1.10
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.11
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.5%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.4%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.4%
1.26
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.0%
1.22
888Sport
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
-3.0%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.9%
1.33
Betano
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.33
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.6%
1.29
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
888Sport
1.30
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.44
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
+5.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Salford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. N’Mai25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
Ryan Graydon0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
K. Cesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Sarpong-Wiredu33%
Ryan Graydon33%
A. Oluwo25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
K. Cesay0%
K. N’Mai0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Cesay25%
Will Aimson0%
Jorge Grant0%
J. Powell0%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu0%
Luke Molyneux0%
W. Norris0%
Ryan Graydon0%
D. Udoh0%
M. Langstaff0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
K. N’Mai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Langstaff50%
B. Sarpong-Wiredu33%
Ryan Graydon33%
Will Aimson25%
J. Powell25%
Luke Molyneux25%
K. Cesay25%
K. N’Mai25%
Jorge Grant0%
W. Norris0%
D. Udoh0%
A. Odoh0%
A. Oluwo0%
Chesterfield
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle McFadzean50%
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
J. Simpson25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
Tom Naylor0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. McEachran0%
L. Mandeville0%
Josh Koroma0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Lee Bonis0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Koroma50%
L. Mandeville25%
Lee Bonis25%
D. Markanday25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Salford's squad is €2m more valuable than Chesterfield's (€8m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Salford and Chesterfield have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Salford's midfield is €1m more valuable than Chesterfield's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Salford and Chesterfield have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale