Pythia gives Salford a 37% win probability against Grimsby in the England: League Two on 2026-05-15, with 29% for the draw and 34% for Grimsby. The model estimates around 2.5 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 5.5 cards (83%), Over 19.5 fouls (81%), Under 3.5 (76%), Over 1.5 (73%).
Results analysis
Salford finished 2-2 against Grimsby (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 37% home win, 29% draw and 34% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (73%). Missed: Under 3.5 (76%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Salford win✗ Miss
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grimsby win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Salford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.00
1.53
0.93
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
0.79
1.29
0.29
1.57
1.29
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
1.19
1.75
1.50
1.12
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.97
1.69
1.06
1.21
0.86
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.61
0.83
1.92
0.83
1.27
0.82
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.3%
No
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
9.2%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
Salford goals ↓
Grimsby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
8.6%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
1
9.2%
14%
7.8%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.8%
8.2%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
3
2.9%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Salford goals (down), columns = Grimsby goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bromley
1.89
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Cambridge
1.78
Notts County
1.78
Salford
1.73
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Grimsby
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Crawley Town
0.87
Harrogate
0.85
Barrow
0.78
Salford is 0.09 points better than Grimsby in terms of average points per game (1.73 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Grimsby
1.60
Notts County
1.59
Bromley
1.54
Swindon
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Cambridge
1.43
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Salford
1.33
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Walsall
1.22
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Barrow
0.98
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Harrogate
0.85
Salford is 0.28 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cambridge
0.72
Oldham
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Bromley
1.00
Notts County
1.06
Colchester
1.07
Grimsby
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Harrogate
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Barrow
1.70
Tranmere
1.72
Cheltenham
1.72
Salford is 0.04 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Notts County
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Cambridge
51%
Salford
51%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Milton Keynes Dons
49%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
47%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Barrow
46%
Bromley
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Salford is 4.2 percentage points worse than Grimsby in terms of average possession (51% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Salford
For 4.8 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.3 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grimsby
For 5.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Salford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.5
9.6
3.7
3.5
3.8
25.1
25.3
24.9
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
10.0
11.3
8.7
3.6
3.3
3.8
24.8
23.8
25.8
vs Weaker (25)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.7
3.8
3.7
25.4
26.8
24.1
% over line
53%
58%
48%
42%
33%
50%
71%
71%
72%
% under line
47%
42%
52%
58%
67%
50%
29%
29%
28%
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.3
10.1
3.9
3.8
4.0
23.8
23.7
23.8
vs Stronger (7)
12.4
13.3
11.8
4.3
4.0
4.5
24.4
25.3
23.8
vs Similar (39)
10.6
11.2
10.1
3.7
3.8
3.7
23.8
23.6
23.9
vs Weaker (4)
8.2
9.0
7.5
5.0
4.0
6.0
22.5
21.5
23.5
% over line
57%
67%
48%
62%
60%
64%
67%
67%
68%
% under line
43%
33%
52%
38%
40%
36%
33%
33%
32%
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.7
Swindon
10.9
Grimsby
10.5
Harrogate
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Chesterfield
10.2
Walsall
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.1
Salford
10.1
Fleetwood Town
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Barrow
9.9
Cheltenham
9.8
Notts County
9.5
Accrington
9.5
Gillingham
9.4
Newport County
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.3
Colchester
9.1
Cambridge
9.0
Milton Keynes Dons
8.6
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Notts County
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Crawley Town
4.2
Chesterfield
4.2
Shrewsbury
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Grimsby
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Walsall
3.8
Salford
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Cheltenham
3.6
Swindon
3.5
Barrow
3.4
Cambridge
3.2
Harrogate
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.6
Crawley Town
25.5
Salford
25.1
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Notts County
24.2
Bristol Rvs
24.1
Gillingham
24.0
Milton Keynes Dons
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Grimsby
23.7
Newport County
23.3
Cheltenham
23.1
Fleetwood Town
23.1
Cambridge
22.9
Walsall
22.8
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.5
Bromley
22.1
Harrogate
21.9
Accrington
21.9
Chesterfield
21.9
Swindon
20.9
Barrow
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.2%
Under 9.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.4%
Under 3.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.0%
Under 21.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Salford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-29pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-29pp vs league)
This opponent (Salford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Salford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (29)
€10m
BR (25)
€5m
SAL (27)
€5m
NC (24)
€5m
GRI (26)
€5m
CRE (25)
€5m
CAM (22)
€5m
CHE (25)
€4m
GIL (27)
€4m
WAL (25)
€4m
FT (23)
€4m
CT (26)
€4m
SWI (25)
€4m
BAR (20)
€4m
COL (22)
€4m
TRA (27)
€3m
BRO (18)
€3m
BAR (24)
€3m
OLD (22)
€3m
CHE (21)
€3m
NC (24)
€3m
ACC (20)
€3m
SHR (19)
€2m
HAR (26)
€2m
Salford and Grimsby have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (10)
€3m
NC (8)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CHE (9)
€2m
SAL (9)
€2m
GRI (12)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
COL (8)
€2m
GIL (9)
€1m
SWI (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
TRA (10)
€1m
CAM (7)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
OLD (6)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
NC (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
BRO (4)
€0m
HAR (6)
€0m
SHR (4)
€0m
Salford and Grimsby have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€3m
SAL (8)
€2m
NC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (8)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
GIL (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BAR (6)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
CT (8)
€1m
HAR (9)
€1m
CAM (5)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
CHE (7)
€1m
GRI (4)
€1m
SWI (6)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
COL (4)
€1m
SHR (5)
€1m
NC (5)
€0m
BR (3)
€0m
Salford and Grimsby have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (13)
€3m
BR (12)
€3m
GRI (10)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
WAL (12)
€2m
CT (11)
€2m
FT (11)
€2m
CHE (11)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
GIL (10)
€2m
SAL (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
NC (9)
€2m
SWI (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€1m
NC (12)
€1m
COL (10)
€1m
TRA (9)
€1m
OLD (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
HAR (11)
€1m
Salford and Grimsby have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →