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Şamaxı FK vs Araz Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 0-1
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Vs
31%
38%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araz win✓ Hit
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W11D03L02L21W21W11D11D13LA·SƏB03/03H·SAB09/03A·ARA14/03A·ZIR30/03H·NEF07/04A·SUM12/04H·KAP20/04A·TUR25/04H·SƏB03/05A·SAB09/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.501.131.071.071.93
vs Stronger (13)0.852.000.831.330.862.57
vs Similar (16)1.001.120.750.881.251.38
vs Weaker (1)6.001.006.001.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D10W20W00D11D03L11D11D02LH·ŞAM14/03A·NEF29/03H·QAR02/04H·SUM07/04A·KAP13/04H·TUR18/04A·QAR23/04A·SƏB27/04H·SAB03/05A·QAR11/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.731.070.641.000.81
vs Stronger (5)0.402.001.001.500.002.33
vs Similar (18)1.170.561.110.561.220.56
vs Weaker (7)1.140.291.000.331.250.25
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%15%22%30%22%030%127%214%35%42%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.7%
Under 1.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.6%
Under 2.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
7.8%
Under 3.5
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
31.5%
No
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
21.5%
1-0
15.0%
0-1 ✓
14.8%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
2-1
5.2%
1-2
5.1%
Şamaxı FK goals ↓
Araz goals →
01234
022%15%6.4%1.7%0.3%
115%14%5.1%1.4%0.3%
26.5%5.2%2.1%0.5%0.1%
31.7%1.4%0.6%0.1%0.0%
40.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şamaxı FK goals (down), columns = Araz goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Şamaxı FK is 0.61 points worse than Araz in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.61).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Şamaxı FK is 0.06 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Şamaxı FK is 0.47 goals worse than Araz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 0.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W01L00D01L01L11D00D10W11DA·SƏB03/03H·SAB09/03A·ARA14/03A·ZIR30/03H·NEF07/04A·SUM12/04H·KAP20/04A·TUR25/04H·SƏB03/05A·SAB09/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.600.530.670.87
vs Stronger (13)0.690.920.500.670.861.14
vs Similar (16)0.380.500.250.380.500.62
vs Weaker (1)4.001.004.001.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W11D10W10W00D01L00D10W11D01LH·ŞAM14/03A·NEF29/03H·QAR02/04H·SUM07/04A·KAP13/04H·TUR18/04A·QAR23/04A·SƏB27/04H·SAB03/05A·QAR11/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.270.570.210.620.31
vs Stronger (5)0.400.601.000.500.000.67
vs Similar (18)0.610.280.440.220.780.33
vs Weaker (7)0.710.000.670.000.750.00
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W03L01L20W10W11D01L02LA·SƏB03/03H·SAB09/03A·ARA14/03A·ZIR30/03H·NEF07/04A·SUM12/04H·KAP20/04A·TUR25/04H·SƏB03/05A·SAB09/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.800.530.530.401.07
vs Stronger (13)0.151.080.330.670.001.43
vs Similar (16)0.620.620.500.500.750.75
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Araz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArazAraz

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D10W00D10W03L01L00D01LH·ŞAM14/03A·NEF29/03H·QAR02/04H·SUM07/04A·KAP13/04H·TUR18/04A·QAR23/04A·SƏB27/04H·SAB03/05A·QAR11/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.470.500.430.380.50
vs Stronger (5)0.001.400.001.000.001.67
vs Similar (18)0.560.280.670.330.440.22
vs Weaker (7)0.430.290.330.330.500.25
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.592.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.578.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Şamaxı FK's squad is €2m less valuable than Araz's (€4m vs €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's attack is €2m less valuable than Araz's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Şamaxı FK and Araz have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Şamaxı FK and Araz have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
ŞF wins
1
Draws
2
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Şamaxı FK vs Araz · H/A from ŞF
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/25AAraz Vs ŞF1-1
19/10/24HŞF Vs Araz0-1
10/08/24AAraz Vs ŞF1-0

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/25ASabah FA Vs ŞF3-1
03/05/25HŞF Vs Səbail1-1
25/04/25ATuran Vs ŞF1-1
20/04/25HŞF Vs Kapaz2-1
12/04/25ASumqayıt Vs ŞF1-2
07/04/25HŞF Vs Neftchi Baku0-2
30/03/25AZira Vs ŞF3-0
14/03/25AAraz Vs ŞF1-1
09/03/25HŞF Vs Sabah FA1-0
03/03/25ASəbail Vs ŞF0-2

ArazAraz

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25AQarabag Vs ARA2-0
03/05/25HARA Vs Sabah FA1-1
27/04/25ASəbail Vs ARA1-1
23/04/25AQarabag Vs ARA3-0
18/04/25HARA Vs Turan1-1
13/04/25AKapaz Vs ARA0-0
07/04/25HARA Vs Sumqayıt2-0
02/04/25HARA Vs Qarabag1-0
29/03/25ANeftchi Baku Vs ARA1-1
14/03/25HARA Vs Şamaxı FK1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDL1.42
HomeLWLWD1.54
AwayDLWDL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%35%
AVG goals2.542.172.88
Over 1.5 %68%58%77%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %28%21%35%
Scored1.401.291.50
Conceded1.140.881.38
BTTS46%42%50%
Clean Sheet32%33%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Araz
Araz
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDL1.50
HomeDWWDD1.50
AwayDDLDL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%38%42%
AVG goals1.922.041.79
Over 1.5 %58%58%58%
Over 2.5 %24%27%21%
Over 3.5 %14%19%8%
Scored0.981.040.92
Conceded0.941.000.88
BTTS36%50%21%
Clean Sheet40%35%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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