PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Şamaxı FK vs Karvan Result & Analysis

Date: 24/11/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 2-4
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Vs
50%
23%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win✓ Hit
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-800D01L11D80W30W33D23L31W20W11DH·QAB22/05A·SƏB27/05A·QAR15/09H·ARA21/09A·IMI28/09A·MOI05/10H·MIN20/10A·İRƏ26/10H·DIF01/11A·ZAQ09/11← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.271.290.931.191.56
vs Stronger (11)0.641.550.401.200.831.83
vs Similar (16)1.191.060.860.571.441.44
vs Weaker (3)3.671.335.001.501.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W00D20W22D03L12L51W11DH·MIN13/09A·İRƏ20/09H·DIF29/09A·ZAQ04/10H·MOI19/10H·QAR25/10A·ARA01/11H·IMI10/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.881.251.601.402.331.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.801.201.001.500.000.00
vs Weaker (3)3.671.334.001.003.501.50
Clean sheet %25% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.4%
Under 2.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.1%
Under 3.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.0%
No
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
6.8%
1-2
6.6%
3-1
6.2%
2-0
6.0%
1-0
4.9%
3-2
4.7%
Şamaxı FK goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
03.7%3.3%3.2%1.6%0.6%
14.9%9.6%6.6%3.3%1.3%
26.0%9.0%6.8%3.4%1.3%
34.1%6.2%4.7%2.4%0.9%
42.1%3.2%2.4%1.2%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şamaxı FK goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
Şamaxı FK is 0.48 points better than Karvan in terms of average points per game (2.11 vs 1.63).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
Şamaxı FK is 0.74 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (2.22 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
Şamaxı FK is 0.44 goals better than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 1.26).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D01L00D50W00D12L12L10W20W10WH·QAB22/05A·SƏB27/05A·QAR15/09H·ARA21/09A·IMI28/09A·MOI05/10H·MIN20/10A·İRƏ26/10H·DIF01/11A·ZAQ09/11← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.640.500.310.88
vs Stronger (11)0.000.730.000.400.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.440.690.430.430.440.89
vs Weaker (3)2.330.673.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D02L02L12L20W10WH·MIN13/09A·İRƏ20/09H·DIF29/09A·ZAQ04/10H·MOI19/10H·QAR25/10A·ARA01/11H·IMI10/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.750.600.800.670.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.400.800.501.000.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D30W30W21W11D21W00D01LH·QAB22/05A·SƏB27/05A·QAR15/09H·ARA21/09A·IMI28/09A·MOI05/10H·MIN20/10A·İRƏ26/10H·DIF01/11A·ZAQ09/11← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.570.640.430.880.69
vs Stronger (11)0.640.820.400.800.830.83
vs Similar (16)0.750.380.430.141.000.56
vs Weaker (3)1.330.672.000.500.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W00D20W20W01L00D31W01LH·MIN13/09A·İRƏ20/09H·DIF29/09A·ZAQ04/10H·MOI19/10H·QAR25/10A·ARA01/11H·IMI10/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.250.501.000.601.670.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (5)0.400.400.500.500.000.00
vs Weaker (3)2.670.673.001.002.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's squad is €3m more valuable than Karvan's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
Şamaxı FK and Karvan have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's midfield is €1m more valuable than Karvan's (€1m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's defence is €2m more valuable than Karvan's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
ŞF wins
0
Draws
0
KAR wins

Head-to-head

Şamaxı FK vs Karvan · H/A from ŞF
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/23AZaqatala Vs ŞF1-1
01/11/23HŞF Vs Difai Ağsu2-0
26/10/23Aİrəvan Vs ŞF1-3
20/10/23HŞF Vs Mingəçevir2-3
05/10/23AMOIK Vs ŞF3-3
28/09/23AImisli FK Vs ŞF0-3
21/09/23HŞF Vs Araz Saatlı8-0
15/09/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs ŞF1-1
27/05/23ASəbail Vs ŞF1-0
22/05/23HŞF Vs Qabala0-0

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/11/23HKAR Vs Imisli FK1-1
01/11/23AAraz Saatlı Vs KAR1-5
25/10/23HKAR Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan1-2
19/10/23HKAR Vs MOIK0-3
04/10/23AZaqatala Vs KAR2-2
29/09/23HKAR Vs Difai Ağsu2-0
20/09/23Aİrəvan Vs KAR0-0
13/09/23HKAR Vs Mingəçevir4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWD0.91
HomeLDWLW1.05
AwayDWDWD0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%24%13%
AVG goals2.502.292.70
Over 1.5 %68%57%78%
Over 2.5 %41%33%48%
Over 3.5 %27%19%35%
Scored1.111.141.09
Conceded1.391.141.61
BTTS50%38%61%
Clean Sheet16%24%9%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWD1.50
HomeWWLLD1.40
AwayDDW1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%33%
AVG goals3.123.003.33
Over 1.5 %88%100%67%
Over 2.5 %62%60%67%
Over 3.5 %38%20%67%
Scored1.881.602.33
Conceded1.251.401.00
BTTS62%60%67%
Clean Sheet25%20%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches