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Şamaxı FK vs Qarabag Result & Analysis

Date: 19/12/2024
Time: 10:00
Final 0-1
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Vs
10%
24%
66%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabag win✓ Hit
65.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L03L61W02L22D12L01L13L23L00DH·ARA19/10A·QAR27/10H·ŞƏM30/10H·ZIR02/11A·NEF08/11A·SUM24/11H·KAP30/11A·ZIR04/12A·TUR09/12H·SƏB14/12
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.131.430.861.811.38
vs Stronger (7)0.861.710.001.001.202.00
vs Similar (18)1.721.061.250.882.101.20
vs Weaker (5)2.400.602.500.752.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D21W40W30W14L30W20W11D01L50WA·TUR01/11A·BOD07/11H·ZIR10/11A·SƏB23/11H·LYO28/11A·NEF01/12A·QAB04/12A·SAB07/12A·IF 12/12H·SUM16/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.101.072.291.211.940.94
vs Stronger (3)0.333.330.503.500.003.00
vs Similar (9)1.221.781.252.001.201.60
vs Weaker (18)2.830.333.250.252.500.40
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%11%021%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.0%
No
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 ✓
16.1%
0-2
15.1%
1-1
10.6%
0-0
10.5%
0-3
9.0%
1-2
8.6%
1-3
5.1%
1-0
4.5%
Şamaxı FK goals ↓
Qarabag goals →
01234
011%16%15%9.0%4.0%
14.5%11%8.6%5.1%2.3%
21.5%2.7%2.4%1.4%0.6%
30.3%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.1%
40.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şamaxı FK goals (down), columns = Qarabag goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.47
Zira
2.06
Araz
1.61
Turan
1.53
Sabah FA
1.33
Neftchi Baku
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.92
Kapaz
0.89
Səbail
0.61
Şamaxı FK is 1.47 points worse than Qarabag in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.39
Zira
1.64
Sabah FA
1.39
Turan
1.25
Neftchi Baku
1.08
Araz
0.94
Şamaxı FK
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.86
Səbail
0.78
Kapaz
0.78
Şamaxı FK is 1.50 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 2.39).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qarabag
0.53
Zira
0.75
Araz
0.81
Turan
1.08
Sabah FA
1.28
Şamaxı FK
1.28
Neftchi Baku
1.36
Sumqayıt
1.47
Səbail
1.64
Kapaz
1.81
Şamaxı FK is 0.75 goals worse than Qarabag in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 0.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D41W01L22D11D00D12L21W00DH·ARA19/10A·QAR27/10H·ŞƏM30/10H·ZIR02/11A·NEF08/11A·SUM24/11H·KAP30/11A·ZIR04/12A·TUR09/12H·SƏB14/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.530.710.291.310.75
vs Stronger (7)0.711.000.000.501.001.20
vs Similar (18)1.000.440.500.251.400.60
vs Weaker (5)1.600.201.500.252.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W00D01L10W10W00D00D30WA·TUR01/11A·BOD07/11H·ZIR10/11A·SƏB23/11H·LYO28/11A·NEF01/12A·QAB04/12A·SAB07/12A·IF 12/12H·SUM16/12
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.431.070.430.880.44
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.890.781.000.750.800.80
vs Weaker (18)1.170.171.380.121.000.20
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L03L20W01L00D01L01L01L02L00DH·ARA19/10A·QAR27/10H·ŞƏM30/10H·ZIR02/11A·NEF08/11A·SUM24/11H·KAP30/11A·ZIR04/12A·TUR09/12H·SƏB14/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.710.570.500.62
vs Stronger (7)0.140.710.000.500.200.80
vs Similar (18)0.720.610.750.620.700.60
vs Weaker (5)0.800.401.000.500.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabag) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QarabagQarabag

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W30W30W13L20W10W11D01L20WA·TUR01/11A·BOD07/11H·ZIR10/11A·SƏB23/11H·LYO28/11A·NEF01/12A·QAB04/12A·SAB07/12A·IF 12/12H·SUM16/12
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.631.210.791.060.50
vs Stronger (3)0.332.330.502.500.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.331.000.251.250.400.80
vs Weaker (18)1.670.171.880.121.500.20
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabag over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.0%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Qarabag
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juninho Vieira25%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Leandro Andrade10%
Yassine Benzia0%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Medina50%
Júlio Romão33%
Marko Janković25%
Patrick Andrade22%
Elvin Cafarquliyev22%
Abbas Hüseynov20%
Bədavi Huseynov20%
Marko Vešović20%
Mateusz Kochalski14%
Juninho Vieira12%
Emmanuel Addai12%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Toral Bayramov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nariman Akhundzade20%
Yassine Benzia11%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Toral Bayramov0%
Juninho Vieira0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Juninho Vieira75%
Yassine Benzia22%
Toral Bayramov10%
Abdellah Zoubir10%
Abbas Hüseynov0%
Bədavi Huseynov0%
Matheus Silva0%
Patrick Andrade0%
Fabijan Buntić0%
Marko Janković0%
Marko Vešović0%
Kevin Medina0%
Bahlul Mustafazada0%
Elvin Cafarquliyev0%
Oleksiy Kashchuk0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Leandro Andrade0%
Júlio Romão0%
Emmanuel Addai0%
Nariman Akhundzade0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Şamaxı FK's squad is €21m less valuable than Qarabag's (€4m vs €25m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's attack is €7m less valuable than Qarabag's (€1m vs €8m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's midfield is €2m less valuable than Qarabag's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Şamaxı FK's defence is €12m less valuable than Qarabag's (€2m vs €14m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
ŞF wins
0
Draws
5
QAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Şamaxı FK vs Qarabag · H/A from ŞF
DateH/AGameScore
27/10/24AQarabag Vs ŞF3-0
02/04/23HŞF Vs Qarabag0-1
31/01/23AQarabag Vs ŞF3-1
30/10/22HŞF Vs Qarabag0-4
27/08/22AQarabag Vs ŞF4-0

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/12/24HŞF Vs Səbail0-0
09/12/24ATuran Vs ŞF3-2
04/12/24AZira Vs ŞF3-1
30/11/24HŞF Vs Kapaz0-1
24/11/24ASumqayıt Vs ŞF2-1
08/11/24ANeftchi Baku Vs ŞF2-2
02/11/24HŞF Vs Zira0-2
30/10/24HŞF Vs Şəmkir6-1
27/10/24AQarabag Vs ŞF3-0
19/10/24HŞF Vs Araz0-1

QarabagQarabag

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/12/24HQAR Vs Sumqayıt5-0
12/12/24AIF Elfsborg Vs QAR1-0
07/12/24ASabah FA Vs QAR1-1
04/12/24AQabala Vs QAR0-2
01/12/24ANeftchi Baku Vs QAR0-3
28/11/24HQAR Vs Lyon1-4
23/11/24ASəbail Vs QAR0-3
10/11/24HQAR Vs Zira4-0
07/11/24ABodo/Glimt Vs QAR1-2
01/11/24ATuran Vs QAR0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.52
HomeLWLLD1.52
AwayLDLLL1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%39%41%
AVG goals2.682.612.74
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %44%43%44%
Over 3.5 %32%30%33%
Scored1.621.651.59
Conceded1.060.961.15
BTTS40%35%44%
Clean Sheet42%48%37%
Corners---
Cards---
Qarabag
Qarabag
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW1.98
HomeLWWLW1.83
AwayWWWDL2.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%57%67%
AVG goals3.583.873.33
Over 1.5 %88%96%81%
Over 2.5 %76%83%70%
Over 3.5 %50%57%44%
Scored2.362.482.26
Conceded1.221.391.07
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet34%35%33%
Corners10.088.6711.50
Cards4.154.863.33

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3689
78%
2.5
8619+67
2.9
78%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.40.5
-
2ZiraZira3674
64%
2.1
5927+32
2.4
67%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.60.8
-
3ArazAraz3658
42%
1.6
3429+5
1.8
53%
17%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3220.90.8
-
4TuranTuran3655
39%
1.5
4539+6
2.3
64%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.21.1
-
5Sabah FASabah FA3648
28%
1.3
5046+4
2.7
75%
42%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5571.41.3
-
6Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3643
28%
1.2
3949-10
2.4
75%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.11.4
-
7Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3636
25%
1.0
3246-14
2.2
61%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.3
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3633
25%
0.9
3153-22
2.3
61%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.91.5
-
9KapazKapaz3632
22%
0.9
2865-37
2.6
67%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
10SəbailSəbail3622
11%
0.6
2859-31
2.4
67%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.6
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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