The model favours a home win, with a 46% chance for Şəməş FK, a 30% draw and a 24% chance of Safa Baku taking the points. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, centring on a 2-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14% probability. Şəməş FK, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Safa Baku, on the road, averages 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.6%), Under 4.5 (91.9%) and Home +2 handicap (91.6%). Şəməş FK has recently drawn five matches, ending with a 0-0 draw against Qabala, while Safa Baku’s last five include a defeat, finishing 0-1 at Imisli FK.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Şamaxı FK win
45.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Şamaxı FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
1.00
1.20
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.73
1.17
1.50
0.60
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.89
0.89
1.00
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.87
1.64
0.79
1.75
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.46
0.69
1.83
0.67
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.88
1.00
1.50
0.88
2.22
1.11
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.4%
Under 2.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
12.6%
0-0
11.7%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.5%
Şamaxı FK goals ↓
Safa Baku goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.3%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.3%
8.6%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.2%
3.8%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.4%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şamaxı FK goals (down), columns = Safa Baku goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Safa Baku
1.09
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Şamaxı FK is 0.06 points better than Safa Baku in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Safa Baku
1.02
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Şamaxı FK is 0.08 goals worse than Safa Baku in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.02).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Qarabag
0.82
Turan
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Safa Baku
1.57
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Şamaxı FK is 0.36 goals better than Safa Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Şamaxı FK or Draw
75.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
30%
25%
covers Şamaxı FK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK or Safa Baku
69.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
30%
25%
covers Şamaxı FK + Safa Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Safa Baku
55.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
30%
25%
covers Draw + Safa Baku
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5
Over
73.8%
Under
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5
Over
38.7%
Under
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Şamaxı FK, so a minus line means Şamaxı FK give that many goals of a start and Safa Baku receive them. At -1, Şamaxı FK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Şamaxı FK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Şamaxı FK)
Şamaxı FK -2
8.0%
Draw -2
13.8%
Safa Baku +2
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Şamaxı FK)
Şamaxı FK -1
21.8%
Draw -1
23.2%
Safa Baku +1
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Şamaxı FK)
Şamaxı FK +1
75.4%
Draw +1
15.7%
Safa Baku -1
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Şamaxı FK)
Şamaxı FK +2
91.1%
Draw +2
6.6%
Safa Baku -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Şamaxı FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.33
0.27
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.32
0.22
0.11
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.23
0.57
0.21
0.81
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.23
0.33
0.17
0.57
0.29
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.24
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Şamaxı FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.18
0.67
1.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.67
0.89
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Safa Baku) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Safa Baku
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.07
0.57
0.94
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.46
1.50
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.76
0.75
0.62
1.22
0.89
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Safa Baku over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
SB (15)
€4m
ŞF (15)
€4m
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
SB (5)
€1m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
SB (2)
€0m
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
SB (8)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zira
Neftchi Baku
Qarabag
Sabah FA
Turan
Imisli FK
Kapaz
Qabala
Araz
Sumqayıt