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Şamaxı FK vs Sumqayıt Result & Analysis

Date: 30/11/2025
Time: 10:00
Final 1-2
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Vs
35%
34%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Şamaxı FK win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt win✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W12L11D10W14L00D10W12L10W00DH·KAR14/09A·ZIR19/09H·ARA27/09A·QAB05/10H·KAP17/10A·QAR26/10A·SƏB29/10A·TUR02/11H·IMI07/11A·SAB23/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.100.931.140.881.06
vs Stronger (12)0.501.420.601.400.431.43
vs Similar (18)1.170.891.111.001.220.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L11D03L41W01L30W32W20W24LH·ŞAM29/08H·NEF21/09A·SAB28/09H·TUR04/10H·KAR18/10A·ZIR25/10A·ZAQ29/10H·ARA02/11A·QAB07/11H·QAR21/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.471.381.881.001.00
vs Stronger (14)0.712.001.002.860.431.14
vs Similar (15)1.531.071.671.111.331.00
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%025%128%218%39%43%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
59.8%
Under 1.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.4%
Under 2.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.7%
Under 3.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.3%
1-1
14.9%
1-0
12.8%
0-1
12.0%
2-0
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
1-2 ✓
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
Şamaxı FK goals ↓
Sumqayıt goals →
01234
015%12%6.4%2.0%0.5%
113%15%6.5%2.1%0.5%
27.2%6.8%3.3%1.0%0.2%
32.4%2.3%1.1%0.4%0.1%
40.6%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Şamaxı FK goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sabah FA
2.36
Qarabag
2.09
Neftchi Baku
1.79
Turan
1.79
Zira
1.61
Araz
1.39
Sumqayıt
1.19
Şamaxı FK
1.15
Imisli FK
1.06
Qabala
0.88
Kapaz
0.82
Karvan
0.45
Mingəçevir
0.00
Şamaxı FK is 0.04 points worse than Sumqayıt in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sabah FA
2.27
Qarabag
2.15
Neftchi Baku
1.73
Araz
1.33
Turan
1.33
Sumqayıt
1.31
Zira
1.30
Qabala
1.00
Şamaxı FK
0.94
Kapaz
0.76
Imisli FK
0.72
Karvan
0.70
Mingəçevir
0.00
Şamaxı FK is 0.37 goals worse than Sumqayıt in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.76
Turan
0.82
Qarabag
0.82
Neftchi Baku
0.97
Zira
1.09
Şamaxı FK
1.21
Imisli FK
1.25
Qabala
1.44
Sumqayıt
1.53
Araz
1.76
Kapaz
1.85
Mingəçevir
2.00
Karvan
2.00
Şamaxı FK is 0.32 goals better than Sumqayıt in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W10W10W12L00D00D11D00D00DH·KAR14/09A·ZIR19/09H·ARA27/09A·QAB05/10H·KAP17/10A·QAR26/10A·SƏB29/10A·TUR02/11H·IMI07/11A·SAB23/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.570.570.380.38
vs Stronger (12)0.420.500.400.600.430.43
vs Similar (18)0.500.440.670.560.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D01L11D01L20W11D00D12LH·ŞAM29/08H·NEF21/09A·SAB28/09H·TUR04/10H·KAR18/10A·ZIR25/10A·ZAQ29/10H·ARA02/11A·QAB07/11H·QAR21/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.630.620.690.360.57
vs Stronger (14)0.290.790.431.000.140.57
vs Similar (15)0.600.530.780.440.330.67
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L01L00D02L00D10W01L10W00DH·KAR14/09A·ZIR19/09H·ARA27/09A·QAB05/10H·KAP17/10A·QAR26/10A·SƏB29/10A·TUR02/11H·IMI07/11A·SAB23/11
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.630.360.570.500.69
vs Stronger (12)0.080.920.200.800.001.00
vs Similar (18)0.670.440.440.440.890.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L00D02L30W00D10W21W20W12LH·ŞAM29/08H·NEF21/09A·SAB28/09H·TUR04/10H·KAR18/10A·ZIR25/10A·ZAQ29/10H·ARA02/11A·QAB07/11H·QAR21/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.751.190.640.43
vs Stronger (14)0.431.210.571.860.290.57
vs Similar (15)0.930.530.890.671.000.33
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Şamaxı FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Şamaxı FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Şamaxı FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.586.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's squad is €5m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€4m vs €9m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's attack is €3m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€1m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
ARA (5)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
Şamaxı FK and Sumqayıt have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ŞF (6)
€2m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
Şamaxı FK's defence is €2m less valuable than Sumqayıt's (€2m vs €4m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
ŞF wins
2
Draws
2
SUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Şamaxı FK vs Sumqayıt · H/A from ŞF
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/25ASumqayıt Vs ŞF1-1
12/04/25ASumqayıt Vs ŞF1-2
09/02/25HŞF Vs Sumqayıt1-0
24/11/24ASumqayıt Vs ŞF2-1
14/09/24HŞF Vs Sumqayıt1-0
16/04/23HŞF Vs Sumqayıt0-0
12/02/23ASumqayıt Vs ŞF1-0
11/11/22HŞF Vs Sumqayıt4-2

Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/11/25ASabah FA Vs ŞF0-0
07/11/25HŞF Vs Imisli FK1-0
02/11/25ATuran Vs ŞF2-1
29/10/25ASəbail Vs ŞF0-1
26/10/25AQarabag Vs ŞF0-0
17/10/25HŞF Vs Kapaz1-4
05/10/25AQabala Vs ŞF0-1
27/09/25HŞF Vs Araz1-1
19/09/25AZira Vs ŞF2-1
14/09/25HŞF Vs Karvan3-0

SumqayıtSumqayıt

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/11/25HSUM Vs Qarabag2-4
07/11/25AQabala Vs SUM0-2
02/11/25HSUM Vs Araz3-2
29/10/25AZaqatala Vs SUM0-3
25/10/25AZira Vs SUM1-0
18/10/25HSUM Vs Karvan4-1
04/10/25HSUM Vs Turan0-3
28/09/25ASabah FA Vs SUM1-1
21/09/25HSUM Vs Neftchi Baku0-2
29/08/25HSUM Vs Şamaxı FK1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.10
HomeLWDLW1.21
AwayWDWLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%33%23%
AVG goals2.222.082.35
Over 1.5 %62%50%73%
Over 2.5 %38%33%42%
Over 3.5 %18%17%19%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded1.221.041.38
BTTS46%38%54%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWL1.04
HomeLLWWL1.12
AwayWDLWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%31%25%
AVG goals2.462.882.00
Over 1.5 %66%81%50%
Over 2.5 %42%54%29%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.001.230.75
Conceded1.461.651.25
BTTS36%42%29%
Clean Sheet24%19%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sabah FASabah FA3378
73%
2.4
7525+50
3.0
76%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.30.8
-
2QarabagQarabag3369
64%
2.1
7127+44
3.0
76%
48%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.20.8
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3359
48%
1.8
5732+25
2.7
73%
55%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.71.0
-
4TuranTuran3359
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.2
67%
45%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.30.8
-
5ZiraZira3353
39%
1.6
4336+7
2.4
70%
42%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.31.1
-
6ArazAraz3346
39%
1.4
4458-14
3.1
88%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.31.8
-
7SumqayıtSumqayıt3238
34%
1.2
4249-7
2.8
78%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4241.31.5
-
8Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3338
27%
1.2
3140-9
2.2
67%
45%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.2
-
9Imisli FKImisli FK3234
22%
1.1
2340-17
2.0
53%
31%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.71.2
-
10QabalaQabala3430
24%
0.9
3449-15
2.4
68%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.01.4
-
11KapazKapaz3327
24%
0.8
2561-36
2.6
76%
45%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.81.8
-
12KarvanKarvan3315
9%
0.5
2366-43
2.7
82%
48%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.0
-
13MingəçevirMingəçevir10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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