The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance for Dila, 29% for Samgurali and 26% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at three, but the most likely total is two, reflecting the modest scoring output of both sides. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 12.1% probability, a tidy result that fits the balanced nature of the encounter.
Samgurali, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages two goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Dila, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.17 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded. These figures suggest Dila’s attack will find the net more often than Samgurali’s defence will allow.
The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners (99.5%), Under 7.5 goals (98.8%), Under 10.5 corners (98.6%), Under 9.5 corners (96.8%), Under 6.5 goals (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Under 8.5 corners (93.2%) and Under 5.5 goals (91.5%). Each pick is presented with its probability, and no other outcome is assigned a win chance.
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 1.29 | 1.94 | 2.25 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.71 | 2.18 | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.88 | 2.88 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.77 | 1.31 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Dila| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.27 | 2.06 | 1.18 | 1.62 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.53 | 1.60 | 1.75 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 2.23 | 0.69 | 2.25 | 0.75 | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Dila goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 12% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Samgurali
Dila
Samgurali| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (27) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Dila| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (23) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.90 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.81 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.88 | 1.38 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Dila| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.92 | 0.31 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 1.12 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.76 | 1.18 | 0.56 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.23 | 0.54 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.25 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Dila| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.70 | 1.41 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.13 | 0.87 | 1.38 | 0.88 | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.31 | 0.38 | 1.38 | 0.38 | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 corners | 99.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 98.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 10.5 corners | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 96.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 9.5 corners | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 95.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 95.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 94.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 8.5 corners | 93.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 92.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 91.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 86.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 83.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 81.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 80.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 80.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 78.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 76.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 26/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/09/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 20/05/25 | A | 4-3 | |
| 09/04/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/10/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 11/08/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 27/04/24 | A | 1-1 |
Samgurali| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 3-4 | |
| 16/08/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 24/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/06/26 | A | 5-3 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 30/11/25 | H | 4-0 |
Dila| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 16/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 22/06/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 16/06/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/06/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 06/12/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 26/11/25 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Rustavi | 8 | 19 | 75% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 2.4 | 75% | 62% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 8 | 16 | 62% | 2.0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 4 | Samgurali | 8 | 14 | 50% | 1.8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 4.0 | 88% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - |
| 5 | Gagra | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 2.4 | 88% | 50% | 12% | 5.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 6 | Dila | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Saburtalo | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 5.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 55% |
| 8 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 8 | 5 | 12% | 0.6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3.1 | 75% | 62% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Meshakhte | 8 | 4 | 12% | 0.5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 10 | Spaeri | 8 | 3 | 0% | 0.4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |