Samgurali are favourites to win this match against Dinamo Batumi, with recent form suggesting they're on a roll, coming off a win against Meshakhte. However, Dinamo Batumi's away form against weaker opponents is a concern, having scored just one goal in their recent away matches.
The model predicts a 46% chance of a home win, 27% for a draw, and 27% for an away win, making a home win the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.7%. In terms of scoring, Samgurali have averaged 1.78 goals at home and conceded 1.33, while Dinamo Batumi have averaged 1 goal away and conceded 2.33.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 78.8%. The home win percentage is 46%, draw percentage is 27%, and away win percentage is 27%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 as its selection, and there is an edge of 78.8%.
Dinamo Batumi's 4-0 win over Samgurali extends their run of consecutive victories. The away side's strong form on the road, where they have a slight advantage over their opponents, was a key factor in this upset. The pre-match favourite, a Home win, was incorrect, as the model's selection did not come to fruition, with a pre-match probability of 46%. Dinamo Batumi's selection by the model proved correct. The model's Over 1.5 selection hit, with a probability of 78.8%, as the game's final score was 0-4.
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.73 | 1.54 | 1.15 | 1.71 | 2.18 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 1.76 | 2.06 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.78 | 2.78 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.46 | 1.31 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Batumi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 2.10 | 1.43 | 2.36 | 0.94 | 1.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.00 | 2.12 | 1.25 | 2.75 | 0.78 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.38 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.14 | 2.29 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
| Dinamo Batumi goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 13% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.8% | 9.4% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Samgurali
Dinamo Batumi
Samgurali| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (28) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Dinamo Batumi| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (22) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 0.71 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.94 | 0.82 | 1.12 | 0.38 | 0.78 | 1.22 |
| vs Similar (13) | 0.46 | 0.69 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Batumi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.90 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.38 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.59 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.69 | 0.92 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Samgurali| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.97 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 0.82 | 1.24 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| vs Similar (13) | 1.00 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Dinamo Batumi| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 1.43 | 0.56 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.41 | 1.24 | 0.50 | 1.62 | 0.33 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.69 | 1.15 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 87.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 78.8% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | +4.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 72.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 28/09/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 25/05/25 | H | 3-0 | |
| 14/04/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 27/10/24 | H | 3-3 | |
| 18/08/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/05/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/03/24 | A | 1-0 |
Samgurali| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 24/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/06/26 | A | 5-3 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 30/11/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 26/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 2-4 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 2-0 |
Dinamo Batumi| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 12/06/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 29/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 05/12/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 25/11/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 5-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Rustavi | 8 | 19 | 75% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 2.4 | 75% | 62% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Dinamo Batumi | 8 | 16 | 62% | 2.0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 7 | 15 | 71% | 2.1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 4 | Samgurali | 8 | 14 | 50% | 1.8 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 4.0 | 88% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - |
| 5 | Gagra | 8 | 13 | 38% | 1.6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 2.4 | 88% | 50% | 12% | 5.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 6 | Dila | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 71% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Saburtalo | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 5.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 55% |
| 8 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 8 | 5 | 12% | 0.6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3.1 | 75% | 62% | 38% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | - |
| 9 | Meshakhte | 8 | 4 | 12% | 0.5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 10 | Spaeri | 8 | 3 | 0% | 0.4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3.0 | 88% | 62% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |