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Samgurali vs Gagra Result & Analysis

Date: 07/05/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 0-2
Samgurali
Samgurali
Vs
52%
27%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gagra
Gagra
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Samgurali win✗ Miss
51.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gagra win✓ Hit
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W00D01L11D01L02L70W12L00D12LA·GAG16/03H·SAB28/03H·KOL01/04A·TOR05/04H·DIL09/04A·DIN14/04H·TEL19/04A·KOL25/04H·DIN29/04A·GAR03/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.171.931.201.001.13
vs Stronger (16)0.881.311.121.500.621.12
vs Similar (12)2.251.003.171.001.331.00
vs Weaker (2)1.501.001.000.002.002.00
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GagraGagra

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L02L20W04L10W10W01L12L02L11DA·DIN10/03H·SAM16/03A·KOL28/03H·DIN05/04A·GAR10/04A·TEL14/04H·SAB19/04A·TOR24/04A·DIL28/04H·DIN03/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.570.801.731.001.40
vs Stronger (18)0.611.780.401.900.881.62
vs Similar (10)1.401.201.501.501.331.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.502.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.2%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.4%
Samgurali goals ↓
Gagra goals →
01234
08.9%6.2%3.5%1.1%0.3%
111%13%5.6%1.8%0.4%
210.0%9.5%4.5%1.4%0.3%
35.4%5.1%2.4%0.8%0.2%
42.2%2.1%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samgurali goals (down), columns = Gagra goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Saburtalo
2.22
Dila
2.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.58
Spaeri
1.50
Gagra
1.19
Dinamo Batumi
1.19
Samgurali
1.17
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Gareji
0.97
Kolkheti Poti
0.61
Samgurali is 0.03 points worse than Gagra in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.19).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.75
Dila
1.75
Saburtalo
1.67
Spaeri
1.50
Samgurali
1.50
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.42
Gagra
1.22
Gareji
1.13
Dinamo Batumi
1.11
Telavi
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.92
Samgurali is 0.28 goals better than Gagra in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.22).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Saburtalo
0.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
0.94
Dila
0.97
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
1.00
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.14
Samgurali
1.47
Gareji
1.50
Gagra
1.53
Telavi
1.61
Dinamo Batumi
1.64
Kolkheti Poti
1.97
Samgurali is 0.06 goals better than Gagra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.53).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

SamguraliSamgurali

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

GagraGagra

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

SamguraliSamgurali

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (27)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (18)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (5)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GagraGagra

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (30)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (16)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (4)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
10.2
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Saburtalo
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SamguraliSamgurali

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W00D00D10W00D01L50W01L00D01LA·GAG16/03H·SAB28/03H·KOL01/04A·TOR05/04H·DIL09/04A·DIN14/04H·TEL19/04A·KOL25/04H·DIN29/04A·GAR03/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.571.000.530.330.60
vs Stronger (16)0.380.500.620.500.120.50
vs Similar (12)1.000.671.670.670.330.67
vs Weaker (2)1.000.500.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GagraGagra

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L00D02L00D00D00D01L01L10WA·DIN10/03H·SAM16/03A·KOL28/03H·DIN05/04A·GAR10/04A·TEL14/04H·SAB19/04A·TOR24/04A·DIL28/04H·DIN03/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.570.470.530.330.60
vs Stronger (18)0.220.720.200.600.250.88
vs Similar (10)0.700.401.000.500.500.33
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SamguraliSamgurali

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L01L01L01L20W11D00D11DA·GAG16/03H·SAB28/03H·KOL01/04A·TOR05/04H·DIL09/04A·DIN14/04H·TEL19/04A·KOL25/04H·DIN29/04A·GAR03/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.930.670.670.53
vs Stronger (16)0.500.810.501.000.500.62
vs Similar (12)1.250.331.500.331.000.33
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GagraGagra

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W02L10W10W01L11D01L01LA·DIN10/03H·SAM16/03A·KOL28/03H·DIN05/04A·GAR10/04A·TEL14/04H·SAB19/04A·TOR24/04A·DIL28/04H·DIN03/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.331.200.670.80
vs Stronger (18)0.391.060.201.300.620.75
vs Similar (10)0.700.800.501.000.830.67
vs Weaker (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
KP (3)
€0m
Samgurali and Gagra have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
KP (2)
€0m
Samgurali and Gagra have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
SPA (4)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
Samgurali and Gagra have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
KP (1)
€0m
Samgurali and Gagra have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
SAM wins
3
Draws
0
GAG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Samgurali vs Gagra · H/A from SAM
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/25AGagra Vs SAM0-2
10/11/24HSAM Vs Gagra4-2
01/09/24AGagra Vs SAM1-3
14/05/24HSAM Vs Gagra2-0
30/03/24AGagra Vs SAM0-0
02/10/23HSAM Vs Gagra2-2
05/08/23AGagra Vs SAM0-0
26/04/23HSAM Vs Gagra1-0

SamguraliSamgurali

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25AGareji Vs SAM2-1
29/04/25HSAM Vs Dinamo Tbilisi0-0
25/04/25AKolkheti Poti Vs SAM2-1
19/04/25HSAM Vs Telavi7-0
14/04/25ADinamo Batumi Vs SAM2-0
09/04/25HSAM Vs Dila0-1
05/04/25ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs SAM1-1
01/04/25HSAM Vs Kolkheti Poti0-1
28/03/25HSAM Vs Saburtalo0-0
16/03/25AGagra Vs SAM0-2

GagraGagra

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/25HGAG Vs Dinamo Batumi1-1
28/04/25ADila Vs GAG2-0
24/04/25ATorpedo Kutaisi Vs GAG2-1
19/04/25HGAG Vs Saburtalo0-1
14/04/25ATelavi Vs GAG0-1
10/04/25AGareji Vs GAG0-1
05/04/25HGAG Vs Dinamo Tbilisi0-4
28/03/25AKolkheti Poti Vs GAG0-2
16/03/25HGAG Vs Samgurali0-2
10/03/25ADinamo Batumi Vs GAG2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Samgurali
Samgurali
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.24
HomeDLLWD1.52
AwayWDLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.682.962.40
Over 1.5 %70%64%76%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %30%40%20%
Scored1.421.801.04
Conceded1.261.161.36
BTTS54%48%60%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Gagra
Gagra
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD1.02
HomeDLLLD1.08
AwayWWWLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals2.342.362.32
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %40%44%36%
Over 3.5 %20%24%16%
Scored0.920.960.88
Conceded1.421.401.44
BTTS42%40%44%
Clean Sheet28%28%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SaburtaloSaburtalo3680
67%
2.2
6024+36
2.3
67%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3221.70.7
-
2DilaDila3678
69%
2.2
6335+28
2.7
69%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.81.0
-
3Torpedo KutaisiTorpedo Kutaisi3663
50%
1.8
6341+22
2.9
78%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2221.81.1
-
4Dinamo TbilisiDinamo Tbilisi3657
42%
1.6
5134+17
2.4
72%
47%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3131.40.9
-
5GagraGagra3643
33%
1.2
4455-11
2.8
83%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.5
-
6Dinamo BatumiDinamo Batumi3643
31%
1.2
4059-19
2.8
83%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.11.6
-
7SamguraliSamgurali3642
33%
1.2
5453+1
3.0
81%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.5
-
8TelaviTelavi3838
24%
1.0
3861-23
2.6
71%
47%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
9GarejiGareji3837
21%
1.0
4357-14
2.6
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
10Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti3622
14%
0.6
3371-38
2.9
78%
56%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
11SpaeriSpaeri23
50%
1.5
32+1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.0
-
12MeshakhteMeshakhte22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.0
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →

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