Samgurali are the clear favorites, with a 56% chance of victory, a 27% draw probability and a 17% chance of Spaeri winning. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Samgurali, a 13.1% probability. In recent form Samgurali have been solid at home, averaging 1.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Spaeri on the road have managed 1.08 goals scored and conceded each against comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 99.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 98.7%, Under 10.5 corners at 98.6%, Under 9.5 corners at 96.8%, Under 5.5 at 96.1% and Away under 2.5 goals at 95.2%. Samgurali’s recent draw against Rustavi and Spaeri’s 0-3 loss to Dinamo Batumi suggest a tight contest, but the odds still favour the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Samgurali win
56.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Spaeri win
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Samgurali
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.80
1.50
1.29
1.94
2.25
vs Stronger (17)
1.71
2.18
1.56
1.56
1.88
2.88
vs Similar (13)
1.77
1.31
1.40
0.80
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spaeri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.54
1.54
0.94
1.24
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.80
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (23)
1.35
1.30
1.64
1.55
1.08
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.3%
Under 1.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.3%
Under 2.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.7%
No
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.1%
1-1
12.6%
2-0
11.7%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.1%
Samgurali goals ↓
Spaeri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
5.8%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.4%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.4%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.6%
2.1%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samgurali goals (down), columns = Spaeri goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Samgurali is 1.38 points better than Spaeri in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Samgurali is 0.88 goals better than Spaeri in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Samgurali is 0.12 goals worse than Spaeri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Samgurali
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Spaeri
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Samgurali
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spaeri
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Samgurali or Draw
82.9%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Samgurali + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samgurali or Spaeri
73.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Samgurali + Spaeri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Spaeri
43.8%
Avg Implied -
56%
27%
17%
covers Draw + Spaeri
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Samgurali over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 0.5
Over
55.3%
Under
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Samgurali, so a minus line means Samgurali give that many goals of a start and Spaeri receive them. At -1, Samgurali must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Samgurali win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Samgurali)
Samgurali -2
13.6%
Draw -2
17.7%
Spaeri +2
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Samgurali)
Samgurali -1
31.4%
Draw -1
24.8%
Spaeri +1
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Samgurali)
Samgurali +1
82.9%
Draw +1
11.6%
Spaeri -1
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Samgurali)
Samgurali +2
94.5%
Draw +2
4.3%
Spaeri -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Samgurali
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.90
0.71
0.43
0.81
1.31
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.88
1.38
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.77
0.20
0.00
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spaeri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.85
0.38
0.41
0.59
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.39
0.91
0.36
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Samgurali
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
0.79
0.86
1.12
0.94
vs Stronger (17)
0.76
1.18
0.56
0.89
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.54
1.20
0.80
1.25
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Spaeri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Spaeri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.69
1.15
0.53
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
2.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.91
0.73
1.18
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Samgurali) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samgurali over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samgurali over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Spaeri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Samgurali's squad is €1m more valuable than Spaeri's (€3m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Samgurali and Spaeri have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Samgurali and Spaeri have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Samgurali and Spaeri have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Gagra
Dila
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi
Meshakhte