The contest between Šamorín and Málienice is a tight one, with the model seeing a home win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 36 % for a Šamorín victory, 30 % for a draw and 35 % for Málienice. The expected total is 2.5 goals, with the most probable total being two goals at 27 %. The single score that the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.1 % chance. Šamorín, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, while Málienice, on the road, averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 3.5 with a 75.8 % probability and Over 1.5 with 72.5 %. The home side’s win probability is 36 %, the draw 30 % and the away side’s win 35 %. Each of these figures is presented once, with no repetition or additional commentary.
Results analysis
The win extends Šamorín’s two-game winning run, while Maléničice’s form has slipped after three straight defeats. The final score was 2-0, a home win that matched the model’s pick. The model favoured a home victory with a 36 % probability, and its call was correct. The suggested picks also came through: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 75.8 % probability, and Over 1.5 goals hit with a 72.5 % probability. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, but the match settled at 2-0, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Šamorín win✓ Hit
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Malženice win✗ Miss
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Šamorín
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.43
1.07
1.07
2.06
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
3.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
3.67
2.33
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.35
1.08
1.08
1.69
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Malženice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malženice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.30
1.33
1.07
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.67
1.00
1.33
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.21
1.42
1.00
1.58
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.5%
1-0
9.0%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
8.0%
2-0 ✓
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
Šamorín goals ↓
Malženice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
8.9%
6.4%
2.6%
0.8%
1
9.0%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.5%
8.1%
5.0%
2.1%
0.6%
3
2.7%
3.4%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šamorín goals (down), columns = Malženice goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petržalka
3.00
Šamorín
2.40
Žilina II
2.00
Tatran Prešov
2.00
Považská Bystrica
1.80
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.60
Pohronie
1.40
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.40
Humenné
1.20
Inter Bratislava
1.20
Zlaté Moravce
1.00
Malženice
0.80
Slovan Bratislava II
0.80
Galanta
0.80
MFK Bytča
0.60
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.40
Šamorín is 1.60 points better than Malženice in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petržalka
2.80
Šamorín
2.20
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
2.00
Liptovský Mikuláš
2.00
Považská Bystrica
1.80
Pohronie
1.80
Inter Bratislava
1.60
Tatran Prešov
1.60
Slovan Bratislava II
1.60
Malženice
1.40
Zlaté Moravce
1.00
Žilina II
1.00
Humenné
0.80
MFK Bytča
0.60
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.60
Galanta
0.60
Šamorín is 0.80 goals better than Malženice in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petržalka
0.40
Žilina II
0.80
Liptovský Mikuláš
0.80
Šamorín
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
1.20
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.20
Inter Bratislava
1.20
Tatran Prešov
1.40
Humenné
1.60
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.60
Považská Bystrica
1.80
Malženice
1.80
Pohronie
1.80
Slovan Bratislava II
1.80
Galanta
1.80
MFK Bytča
3.20
Šamorín is 0.80 goals better than Malženice in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Šamorín
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.50
0.50
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.69
0.54
0.46
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Malženice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malženice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.40
0.47
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.50
0.42
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šamorín over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Šamorín
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.57
0.57
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.65
0.54
0.62
0.77
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Malženice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malženice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
0.93
0.60
1.07
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.83
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.04
0.71
1.00
0.50
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šamorín over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malženice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Slovakia: 2. liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: 2. liga stats & trends →