The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Petržalka, 31% for a draw and 27% for Šamorín. The expected total is 2.3 goals, centring on the most likely total of two goals, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% chance. Šamorín, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.17 conceded, while Petržalka, on the road, averages 1.77 scored and 0.92 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.5%), Under 4.5 (91.9%) and Away +2 handicap (90.0%). The home side has recently won three of five, while the visitors are on a five-game winning streak, both ending their last matches 2-1 and 2-0 respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Šamorín win
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petržalka win
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Šamorín
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.30
1.20
1.13
2.07
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
3.50
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.25
1.00
1.17
1.92
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Petržalka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petržalka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.07
2.00
1.14
1.62
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
0.00
2.00
3.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.96
1.00
2.17
1.08
1.77
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.6%
Under 1.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.7%
Under 2.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.5%
Under 3.5
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
12.1%
0-0
11.6%
1-0
8.7%
0-2
8.7%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.9%
Šamorín goals ↓
Petržalka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
12%
8.7%
3.8%
1.2%
1
8.7%
14%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
2
4.9%
6.3%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.6%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Šamorín goals (down), columns = Petržalka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petržalka
3.00
Šamorín
2.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Žilina II
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.33
Malženice
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Galanta
1.17
Humenné
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
Slovan Bratislava II
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.50
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.50
Šamorín is 0.50 points worse than Petržalka in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Petržalka
2.67
Šamorín
2.17
Pohronie
2.00
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.83
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.67
Inter Bratislava
1.50
Tatran Prešov
1.50
Slovan Bratislava II
1.50
Žilina II
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
0.83
MFK Bytča
0.67
Humenné
0.67
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.67
Galanta
0.67
Šamorín is 0.50 goals worse than Petržalka in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petržalka
0.33
Šamorín
1.00
Žilina II
1.00
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.00
Zlaté Moravce
1.17
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.17
Inter Bratislava
1.17
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
1.33
Humenné
1.50
Galanta
1.50
Považská Bystrica
1.67
Malženice
1.67
Pohronie
1.67
Tatran Prešov
1.67
Slovan Bratislava II
1.67
MFK Bytča
3.17
Šamorín is 0.67 goals worse than Petržalka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Šamorín or Draw
57.3%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
43%
covers Šamorín + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Šamorín or Petržalka
69.3%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
43%
covers Šamorín + Petržalka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Petržalka
73.4%
Avg Implied -
27%
31%
43%
covers Draw + Petržalka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Šamorín over/under 0.5
Over
62.2%
Under
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 1.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 0.5
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 1.5
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 2.5
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Šamorín, so a minus line means Šamorín give that many goals of a start and Petržalka receive them. At -1, Šamorín must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Šamorín win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Šamorín)
Šamorín -2
2.8%
Draw -2
7.3%
Petržalka +2
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Šamorín)
Šamorín -1
10.0%
Draw -1
16.6%
Petržalka +1
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Šamorín)
Šamorín +1
57.3%
Draw +1
22.5%
Petržalka -1
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Šamorín)
Šamorín +2
79.8%
Draw +2
13.0%
Petržalka -2
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Šamorín
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.53
0.47
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.75
0.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.50
0.42
0.42
0.92
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Petržalka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petržalka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.93
0.57
0.31
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.38
0.31
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Šamorín over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Šamorín
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.75
0.58
0.75
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Petržalka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petržalka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.63
1.07
0.57
1.31
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.28
0.60
1.17
0.58
1.38
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Šamorín) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Šamorín over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Šamorín over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petržalka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (19)
€2m
PET (23)
€2m
ŠAM (22)
€2m
POH (17)
€1m
LZ (16)
€1m
ZM (14)
€1m
LM (14)
€1m
BLP (20)
€1m
PB (17)
€1m
ŽI (12)
€1m
IB (18)
€1m
SBI (18)
€1m
MAL (13)
€1m
HUM (4)
€0m
Šamorín and Petržalka have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (7)
€1m
PET (10)
€1m
LM (8)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€0m
ŽI (4)
€0m
POH (4)
€0m
BLP (6)
€0m
IB (5)
€0m
PB (4)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ZM (3)
€0m
HUM (2)
€0m
SBI (4)
€0m
LZ (3)
€0m
Šamorín and Petržalka have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŠAM (6)
€1m
LZ (3)
€0m
TP (4)
€0m
PB (6)
€0m
SBI (8)
€0m
PET (5)
€0m
POH (5)
€0m
ZM (4)
€0m
BLP (3)
€0m
IB (4)
€0m
LM (2)
€0m
MAL (3)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
Šamorín and Petržalka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (8)
€1m
ZM (7)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
POH (8)
€1m
LZ (10)
€1m
ŠAM (8)
€1m
BLP (11)
€0m
ŽI (7)
€0m
PB (7)
€0m
IB (9)
€0m
MAL (7)
€0m
SBI (6)
€0m
LM (4)
€0m
HUM (1)
€0m
Šamorín and Petržalka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovakia: 2. liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovakia: 2. liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Pohronie
Považská Bystrica
Žilina II
Tatran Prešov
Liptovský Mikuláš
Inter Bratislava
Malženice
Galanta
Humenné
Slovan Bratislava II
Zlaté Moravce
Lokomotíva Zvolen
MFK Bytča