This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
0.93
1.07
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.31
0.50
0.83
0.71
1.71
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.12
1.22
1.22
0.88
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.4%
Under 1.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.2%
@ 2.16-7.5%
Under 2.5
63.8%
@ 1.67+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.9%
Under 3.5
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.1%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
11.0%
2-1
7.3%
1-2 ✓
7.1%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.5%
Sampdoria goals ↓
Cittadella goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.0%
7.3%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sampdoria goals (down), columns = Cittadella goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Sampdoria is 0.25 points better than Cittadella in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Sampdoria is 0.31 goals better than Cittadella in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Sampdoria is 0.10 goals worse than Cittadella in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Sampdoria is 3.9 percentage points better than Cittadella in terms of average possession (51% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sampdoria
For 4.5 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.2 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cittadella
For 7.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 16.0 · Total 31.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sampdoria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.6
7.7
7.5
1.1
1.3
0.9
26.8
30.8
22.7
vs Stronger (27)
7.8
8.5
7.3
0.7
0.8
0.6
22.6
27.5
19.3
vs Similar (19)
7.2
7.3
7.0
1.3
1.4
1.1
29.0
29.7
28.0
vs Weaker (4)
8.0
7.0
9.0
3.2
4.0
2.5
31.5
41.0
22.0
% over line
17%
17%
17%
18%
24%
12%
75%
83%
67%
% under line
83%
83%
83%
82%
76%
88%
25%
17%
33%
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.3
8.8
1.4
1.4
1.4
31.0
30.7
31.3
vs Stronger (20)
9.0
10.0
8.7
1.4
0.6
2.1
34.2
27.0
36.7
vs Similar (30)
9.1
9.2
9.0
1.3
1.8
0.8
29.4
31.4
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
16%
20%
12%
83%
83%
83%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
84%
80%
88%
17%
17%
17%
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecco
12.5
Brescia
11.6
Modena
11.0
Pisa
11.0
Parma
10.8
FeralpiSalo
10.6
Como
10.3
Venezia
10.3
Bari
10.2
Ascoli
10.1
Catanzaro
10.0
Ternana
9.9
Palermo
9.7
Cremonese
9.5
Reggiana
9.5
Cittadella
9.5
Sampdoria
9.5
Spezia
9.2
Cosenza
8.7
Sudtirol
6.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cittadella
6.2
Pisa
5.8
Modena
5.8
Ascoli
5.6
Sudtirol
5.5
Como
5.3
Cremonese
5.3
Parma
5.3
Cosenza
5.2
Venezia
5.2
Reggiana
5.0
Palermo
4.9
Ternana
4.9
FeralpiSalo
4.8
Spezia
4.8
Bari
4.6
Brescia
4.6
Sampdoria
4.5
Catanzaro
4.2
Lecco
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
33.3
Pisa
32.3
Reggiana
31.4
Ascoli
31.2
Palermo
30.8
Sudtirol
30.8
Como
30.0
Parma
28.9
Cremonese
28.8
Ternana
28.5
Bari
28.3
Spezia
27.5
Lecco
27.5
Cosenza
27.2
Brescia
26.9
Sampdoria
26.7
Venezia
26.6
Modena
26.2
FeralpiSalo
25.6
Catanzaro
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.2%
Under 9.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.5%
Under 3.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.6%
Under 21.5
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sampdoria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.93
0.17
1.00
0.56
0.89
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.62
0.62
0.38
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.62
0.33
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.71
0.44
0.78
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sampdoria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.13
0.33
0.93
0.27
1.33
vs Stronger (15)
0.13
1.40
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.89
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.92
0.38
1.25
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cittadella) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cittadella
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.69
0.17
0.33
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.41
0.78
0.44
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cittadella over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sampdoria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fabio Borini26%
Sebastiano Esposito22%
Manuel De Luca21%
Estanis Pedrola20%
Pajtim Kasami18%
Antonino La Gumina17%
Ebrima Darboe14%
Fabio Depaoli9%
Giovanni Leoni8%
Agustín Álvarez7%
Facundo González7%
Simone Giordano7%
Leonardo Benedetti7%
Daniele Ghilardi5%
Nicola Murru4%
Valerio Verre4%
Petar Stojanović3%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Antonio Barreca0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Ronaldo Vieira0%
Matteo Ricci0%
Stefano Girelli0%
Kristoffer Askildsen0%
Simone Panada0%
Filip Stanković0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Marco Delle Monache0%
Samuel Ntanda0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Ferrari67%
Facundo González41%
Fabio Depaoli36%
Valerio Verre36%
Antonino La Gumina33%
Simone Panada33%
Petar Stojanović31%
Estanis Pedrola27%
Ronaldo Vieira23%
Sebastiano Esposito22%
Fabio Borini22%
Ebrima Darboe21%
Daniele Ghilardi21%
Gerard Yepes20%
Nicola Murru17%
Giovanni Leoni17%
Matteo Ricci15%
Antonio Barreca13%
Pajtim Kasami11%
Simone Giordano10%
Leonardo Benedetti7%
Manuel De Luca6%
Stefano Girelli6%
Kristoffer Askildsen6%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Filip Stanković0%
Agustín Álvarez0%
Marco Delle Monache0%
Samuel Ntanda0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Valerio Verre20%
Sebastiano Esposito17%
Ronaldo Vieira15%
Manuel De Luca15%
Fabio Borini13%
Kristoffer Askildsen11%
Petar Stojanović10%
Fabio Depaoli9%
Gerard Yepes9%
Ebrima Darboe7%
Matteo Ricci5%
Antonio Barreca4%
Pajtim Kasami4%
Facundo González3%
Simone Giordano3%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Nicola Murru0%
Antonino La Gumina0%
Stefano Girelli0%
Leonardo Benedetti0%
Simone Panada0%
Filip Stanković0%
Agustín Álvarez0%
Estanis Pedrola0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Marco Delle Monache0%
Samuel Ntanda0%
Giovanni Leoni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sebastiano Esposito26%
Fabio Borini22%
Pajtim Kasami18%
Manuel De Luca12%
Valerio Verre12%
Antonino La Gumina8%
Agustín Álvarez7%
Estanis Pedrola7%
Fabio Depaoli3%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Petar Stojanović0%
Antonio Barreca0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Nicola Murru0%
Ronaldo Vieira0%
Matteo Ricci0%
Stefano Girelli0%
Kristoffer Askildsen0%
Leonardo Benedetti0%
Ebrima Darboe0%
Simone Panada0%
Filip Stanković0%
Facundo González0%
Simone Giordano0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Marco Delle Monache0%
Samuel Ntanda0%
Giovanni Leoni0%
Cittadella
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Pandolfi24%
Filippo Pittarello14%
Alessio Vita11%
Stefano Negro10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Tommy Maistrello9%
Enrico Baldini9%
Francesco Amatucci7%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Simone Branca6%
Lorenzo Carissoni6%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Nicola Pavan3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Tessiore0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simone Branca47%
Federico Giraudo37%
Stefano Negro35%
Alessandro Salvi34%
Edoardo Sottini29%
Enrico Baldini27%
Lorenzo Carissoni27%
Matteo Angeli25%
Francesco Amatucci18%
Andrea Tessiore17%
Giuseppe Carriero13%
Valerio Mastrantonio12%
Filippo Pittarello11%
Alessio Rizza11%
Domenico Frare10%
Andrea Magrassi10%
Nicola Pavan10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Alessio Vita9%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Elhan Kastrati3%
Luca Maniero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alessio Vita11%
Federico Giraudo11%
Alessandro Salvi10%
Claudio Cassano10%
Lorenzo Carissoni9%
Luca Pandolfi9%
Filippo Pittarello9%
Simone Branca6%
Stefano Negro5%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Valerio Mastrantonio4%
Nicola Pavan3%
Tommy Maistrello3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Giuseppe Carriero0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Andrea Magrassi0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Pittarello23%
Luca Pandolfi15%
Stefano Negro10%
Alessio Vita9%
Giuseppe Carriero6%
Tommy Maistrello6%
Andrea Tessiore4%
Alessandro Salvi3%
Andrea Magrassi3%
Claudio Cassano3%
Luca Maniero0%
Domenico Frare0%
Simone Branca0%
Andrea Danzi0%
Enrico Baldini0%
Federico Giraudo0%
Elhan Kastrati0%
Nicola Pavan0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Valerio Mastrantonio0%
Emil Kornvig0%
Edoardo Sottini0%
Matteo Angeli0%
Alessio Rizza0%
Francesco Amatucci0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Brescia
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Modena
Reggiana
Pisa
Bari
Ternana
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco