This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.40
1.14
1.71
0.75
1.12
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
1.23
1.17
1.67
0.86
0.86
vs Similar (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.6%
Under 1.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.2%
@ 1.93-13.8%
Under 2.5
64.8%
@ 1.86+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.5%
1-0
12.9%
0-1
10.1%
2-0 ✓
8.3%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.4%
Sampdoria goals ↓
Lecco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.4%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.3%
7.8%
3.7%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sampdoria goals (down), columns = Lecco goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Sampdoria is 0.78 points better than Lecco in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Sampdoria is 0.44 goals better than Lecco in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Sampdoria is 0.61 goals better than Lecco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Sampdoria is 3.9 percentage points better than Lecco in terms of average possession (51% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sampdoria
For 4.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.2 · Against 16.1 · Total 33.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecco
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.8 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sampdoria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.1
8.4
1.9
1.8
2.0
31.4
33.3
29.8
vs Stronger (22)
8.5
-
8.5
0.7
0.0
1.2
30.5
-
30.5
vs Similar (25)
8.8
9.3
8.2
2.7
2.7
2.8
32.2
33.2
31.0
vs Weaker (3)
8.5
8.0
9.0
4.3
4.0
5.0
28.0
34.0
22.0
% over line
40%
43%
38%
30%
29%
31%
93%
86%
100%
% under line
60%
57%
62%
70%
71%
69%
7%
14%
0%
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
9.2
8.4
9.9
5.9
6.1
5.6
27.6
28.7
26.6
vs Stronger (13)
9.7
9.0
10.3
6.0
6.3
5.7
28.4
29.0
27.9
vs Similar (2)
6.0
5.0
7.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
22.5
27.0
18.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
27%
14%
38%
93%
86%
100%
87%
86%
88%
% under line
73%
86%
62%
7%
14%
0%
13%
14%
12%
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.1
Parma
10.9
Pisa
10.7
Modena
10.4
Venezia
10.4
Ascoli
10.3
Como
10.0
Bari
9.9
Ternana
9.9
Cremonese
9.9
Palermo
9.8
Spezia
9.5
Reggiana
9.5
Lecco
9.2
Sampdoria
9.1
Catanzaro
9.0
Cittadella
9.0
Sudtirol
8.9
Cosenza
8.8
FeralpiSalo
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pisa
6.1
Cittadella
6.0
Lecco
5.9
Cosenza
5.8
Modena
5.7
Ascoli
5.7
Parma
5.7
Sudtirol
5.5
Cremonese
5.4
FeralpiSalo
5.4
Spezia
5.4
Reggiana
5.3
Como
5.3
Palermo
5.3
Sampdoria
5.2
Brescia
5.0
Ternana
5.0
Catanzaro
4.9
Bari
4.9
Venezia
4.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.6
Ascoli
31.2
Reggiana
31.0
Pisa
30.9
Palermo
30.7
Como
29.9
Bari
29.5
Sudtirol
28.9
Catanzaro
28.7
Parma
28.6
Sampdoria
28.5
Cremonese
28.3
Modena
28.1
Ternana
28.0
Cosenza
27.6
Lecco
27.6
Brescia
27.6
FeralpiSalo
27.5
Spezia
27.4
Venezia
25.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
47.5%
Under 9.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
84.2%
Under 3.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.1%
Under 21.5
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sampdoria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.57
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.90
0.50
0.14
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.29
0.57
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.46
0.33
0.67
0.57
0.29
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sampdoria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.03
0.50
0.79
0.44
1.25
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
1.70
0.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.40
1.00
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecco) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.86
1.14
0.25
0.62
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.77
0.83
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sampdoria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fabio Borini26%
Sebastiano Esposito22%
Manuel De Luca21%
Estanis Pedrola20%
Pajtim Kasami18%
Antonino La Gumina17%
Ebrima Darboe14%
Fabio Depaoli9%
Giovanni Leoni8%
Agustín Álvarez7%
Facundo González7%
Simone Giordano7%
Leonardo Benedetti7%
Daniele Ghilardi5%
Nicola Murru4%
Valerio Verre4%
Petar Stojanović3%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Antonio Barreca0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Ronaldo Vieira0%
Matteo Ricci0%
Stefano Girelli0%
Kristoffer Askildsen0%
Simone Panada0%
Filip Stanković0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Marco Delle Monache0%
Samuel Ntanda0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Ferrari67%
Facundo González41%
Fabio Depaoli36%
Valerio Verre36%
Antonino La Gumina33%
Simone Panada33%
Petar Stojanović31%
Estanis Pedrola27%
Ronaldo Vieira23%
Sebastiano Esposito22%
Fabio Borini22%
Ebrima Darboe21%
Daniele Ghilardi21%
Gerard Yepes20%
Nicola Murru17%
Giovanni Leoni17%
Matteo Ricci15%
Antonio Barreca13%
Pajtim Kasami11%
Simone Giordano10%
Leonardo Benedetti7%
Manuel De Luca6%
Stefano Girelli6%
Kristoffer Askildsen6%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Filip Stanković0%
Agustín Álvarez0%
Marco Delle Monache0%
Samuel Ntanda0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Valerio Verre20%
Sebastiano Esposito17%
Ronaldo Vieira15%
Manuel De Luca15%
Fabio Borini13%
Kristoffer Askildsen11%
Petar Stojanović10%
Fabio Depaoli9%
Gerard Yepes9%
Ebrima Darboe7%
Matteo Ricci5%
Antonio Barreca4%
Pajtim Kasami4%
Facundo González3%
Simone Giordano3%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Nicola Murru0%
Antonino La Gumina0%
Stefano Girelli0%
Leonardo Benedetti0%
Simone Panada0%
Filip Stanković0%
Agustín Álvarez0%
Estanis Pedrola0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Marco Delle Monache0%
Samuel Ntanda0%
Giovanni Leoni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sebastiano Esposito26%
Fabio Borini22%
Pajtim Kasami18%
Manuel De Luca12%
Valerio Verre12%
Antonino La Gumina8%
Agustín Álvarez7%
Estanis Pedrola7%
Fabio Depaoli3%
Cristiano Piccini0%
Petar Stojanović0%
Antonio Barreca0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Nicola Murru0%
Ronaldo Vieira0%
Matteo Ricci0%
Stefano Girelli0%
Kristoffer Askildsen0%
Leonardo Benedetti0%
Ebrima Darboe0%
Simone Panada0%
Filip Stanković0%
Facundo González0%
Simone Giordano0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Daniele Ghilardi0%
Marco Delle Monache0%
Samuel Ntanda0%
Giovanni Leoni0%
Lecco
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nicolò Buso26%
Andrija Novakovich13%
Franco Lepore12%
Artur Ioniță11%
Mattia Tordini11%
Umberto Eusepi8%
Lorenzo Di Stefano8%
Roberto Inglese7%
Alessandro Sersanti6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Mats Lemmens6%
Alessandro Bianconi4%
Alessandro Caporale3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Mario Ierardi0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Luca Giudici0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Duccio Degli Innocenti0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Marrone50%
Alessandro Sersanti39%
Mats Lemmens39%
Giovanni Crociata36%
Eugenio Lamanna33%
Mattia Tordini33%
Vittorio Parigini31%
Duccio Degli Innocenti28%
Mario Ierardi25%
Alessandro Caporale23%
Davide Guglielmotti23%
Alessandro Bianconi17%
Elio Capradossi17%
Matteo Battistini15%
Franco Lepore15%
Marco Frigerio14%
Giorgio Galli11%
Vedran Celjak11%
Andrija Novakovich11%
Eddie Salcedo10%
Gabriel Lunetta10%
Artur Ioniță8%
Umberto Eusepi8%
Lorenzo Di Stefano8%
Nicolò Buso6%
Roberto Inglese0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Luca Giudici0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lorenzo Di Stefano15%
Franco Lepore15%
Alessandro Caporale13%
Mario Ierardi12%
Luca Giudici9%
Artur Ioniță8%
Nicolò Buso6%
Giovanni Crociata6%
Mats Lemmens6%
Duccio Degli Innocenti3%
Alessandro Sersanti3%
Andrija Novakovich3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Umberto Eusepi0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Roberto Inglese0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Alessandro Bianconi0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Mattia Tordini0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nicolò Buso29%
Andrija Novakovich16%
Lorenzo Di Stefano15%
Mario Ierardi12%
Giovanni Crociata8%
Duccio Degli Innocenti7%
Franco Lepore6%
Alessandro Sersanti6%
Artur Ioniță6%
Alessandro Caporale3%
Eddie Salcedo0%
Vittorio Parigini0%
Umberto Eusepi0%
Eugenio Lamanna0%
Elio Capradossi0%
Luca Marrone0%
Roberto Inglese0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Umberto Saracco0%
Giorgio Galli0%
Luca Giudici0%
Davide Guglielmotti0%
Vedran Celjak0%
Riccardo Melgrati0%
Marcin Listkowski0%
Matteo Battistini0%
Alessandro Bianconi0%
Henri Salomaa0%
Marco Frigerio0%
Mattia Tordini0%
Joshua Tenkorang0%
Mats Lemmens0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →