The match between Samtredia and Aragvi Dusheti is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 38% for Samtredia, 31% for a draw and 31% for Aragvi Dusheti. The expected total goals hover around 2.3, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% chance. Samtredia, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages two goals scored and 1.15 conceded, while Aragvi Dusheti, on the road against a weaker side, averages no goals scored and one conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 4.5 (91.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.1%) and Home under 2.5 goals (87.1%). Samtredia’s recent form shows a four-game winning streak, while Aragvi Dusheti has just returned from a draw.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Samtredia win
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti win
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Samtredia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.93
1.07
1.44
1.56
vs Stronger (29)
1.69
1.38
2.00
1.15
1.44
1.56
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.27
1.33
1.33
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.22
1.31
1.23
1.29
1.21
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.0%
1-0
10.7%
0-1
9.3%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.8%
Samtredia goals ↓
Aragvi Dusheti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.3%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.4%
8.1%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.1%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samtredia goals (down), columns = Aragvi Dusheti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Samtredia is 0.12 points better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Samtredia is 0.62 goals better than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Samtredia is 0.25 goals worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Samtredia or Draw
68.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Samtredia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia or Aragvi Dusheti
69.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Samtredia + Aragvi Dusheti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aragvi Dusheti
61.9%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Aragvi Dusheti
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Samtredia over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Samtredia, so a minus line means Samtredia give that many goals of a start and Aragvi Dusheti receive them. At -1, Samtredia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Samtredia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -2
5.8%
Draw -2
11.4%
Aragvi Dusheti +2
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -1
17.2%
Draw -1
20.9%
Aragvi Dusheti +1
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +1
68.8%
Draw +1
18.4%
Aragvi Dusheti -1
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +2
87.1%
Draw +2
9.0%
Aragvi Dusheti -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Samtredia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (29)
1.00
0.59
1.15
0.38
0.88
0.75
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.48
0.62
0.54
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Samtredia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.79
0.85
0.77
0.56
0.81
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aragvi Dusheti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.74
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
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Telavi
Gareji
Sioni
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili