Samtredia’s recent three-game winning streak at home shows they can keep a clean sheet, but the Pythia model still favours an away victory for Gareji, assigning a 64% chance to the away win, 23% to a draw and 13% to a home win. The model’s confidence stems from Gareji’s stronger away form, scoring an average of two goals per game while conceding 1.75 against weaker opponents, compared with Samtredia’s 1.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded at home against stronger teams. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most probable total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2, giving Gareji a 12.5% chance to win by that margin. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Away +2 handicap (95.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.6%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.9%) and Draw or Away (86.8%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Samtredia win
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gareji win
58.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Samtredia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.93
1.07
1.44
1.56
vs Stronger (29)
1.69
1.38
2.00
1.15
1.44
1.56
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.25
2.06
1.50
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.28
1.72
1.00
2.00
1.64
1.36
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.20
3.00
2.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.9%
No
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
0-1
11.7%
0-2
11.4%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
5.8%
1-0
5.0%
Samtredia goals ↓
Gareji goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
12%
11%
6.7%
3.0%
1
5.0%
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.6%
2
2.6%
4.7%
4.2%
2.5%
1.1%
3
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samtredia goals (down), columns = Gareji goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Samtredia is 0.12 points worse than Gareji in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Samtredia is 0.50 goals better than Gareji in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Samtredia is 0.25 goals worse than Gareji in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Samtredia or Draw
41.8%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Samtredia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia or Gareji
74.8%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Samtredia + Gareji
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gareji
83.4%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Draw + Gareji
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Samtredia over/under 0.5
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Samtredia, so a minus line means Samtredia give that many goals of a start and Gareji receive them. At -1, Samtredia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Samtredia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -2
1.3%
Draw -2
4.2%
Gareji +2
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -1
5.6%
Draw -1
11.1%
Gareji +1
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +1
41.8%
Draw +1
24.2%
Gareji -1
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +2
66.0%
Draw +2
18.3%
Gareji -2
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Samtredia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (29)
1.00
0.59
1.15
0.38
0.88
0.75
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.62
1.06
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.80
0.43
1.07
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
2.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.0%
Under 0.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.6%
Under 1.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
Under 2.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.2%
Under
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Samtredia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.79
0.85
0.77
0.56
0.81
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Gareji) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gareji
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
0.62
1.00
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.92
0.57
0.93
1.45
0.91
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.5%
Under 0.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.9%
Under 1.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gareji over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Shturmi
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili