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Samtredia vs Gori Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Samtredia
Samtredia
Vs
50%
27%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gori
Gori
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Samtredia is expected to edge out Gori, with the home side's recent form suggesting they're coming off a win. However, Gori has been on a 2-game winning run, which could pose a challenge for Samtredia. The model predicts a home win, with a 50% probability, while the away win and draw probabilities stand at 23% and 27% respectively.

The expected total goals are 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13%. Samtredia has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2 goals and conceding 2, while facing similar opponents. Gori, on the other hand, has a weaker away record, scoring 1 goal and conceding 1, when facing similar opponents.

The model's selection is the Home win, with a 50% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.2% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 72.7% probability. The home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 23%.

Results analysis

Samtredia's 1-0 win extends their current 2-game winning run. The actual result was a home win, matching the model's call, which was correct given the pre-match favourite was the home team with a 50% probability of winning. The model's selection, Home win, was the predicted outcome.

The model's selection of Samtredia was correct, while the suggested picks did not entirely align with the final score. Over 1.5 goals was predicted with an 75.2% probability but missed, while Under 3.5 goals was predicted with a 72.7% probability and hit. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but the actual result was a 1-0 win for Samtredia.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Samtredia win✓ Hit
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gori win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D21W32W01L12L23L22D12L23L42WH·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.401.711.071.441.69
vs Stronger (30)1.571.401.711.071.441.69
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoriGori

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L13L11D20W41WA·TEL30/05H·GAR13/06A·KOL17/06A·MER22/06H·SIO08/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.202.502.001.000.67
vs Stronger (5)1.601.202.502.001.000.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0 ✓
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.3%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.1%
Samtredia goals ↓
Gori goals →
01234
08.3%6.2%3.8%1.3%0.3%
110%13%6.1%2.1%0.5%
29.3%9.5%4.9%1.7%0.4%
35.0%5.1%2.6%0.9%0.2%
42.0%2.1%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samtredia goals (down), columns = Gori goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Samtredia is 0.38 points better than Gori in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Samtredia is 0.62 goals better than Gori in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Samtredia is 0.38 goals worse than Gori in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.12).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SamtrediaSamtredia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W20W00D02L02L01L10W11D21WH·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.601.000.360.810.81
vs Stronger (30)0.900.601.000.360.810.81
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoriGori

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L01L00D10WA·TEL30/05H·GAR13/06A·KOL17/06A·MER22/06H·SIO08/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.601.001.000.000.33
vs Stronger (5)0.400.601.001.000.000.33
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SamtrediaSamtredia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L12L01L10W21W21W02L12L21WH·SPA08/11A·DIN21/11H·GON25/11A·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.800.710.710.620.88
vs Stronger (30)0.670.800.710.710.620.88
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Gori) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GoriGori

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L10W20W31WA·TEL30/05H·GAR13/06A·KOL17/06A·MER22/06H·SIO08/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.601.501.001.000.33
vs Stronger (5)1.200.601.501.001.000.33
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gori over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.2%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
Samtredia and Gori have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
Samtredia and Gori have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
Samtredia and Gori have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
Samtredia and Gori have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SAM wins
0
Draws
0
GOR wins

Head-to-head

Samtredia vs Gori · H/A from SAM
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26AAragvi Dusheti Vs SAM2-4
22/06/26ASioni Vs SAM3-2
17/06/26AMerani Martvili Vs SAM2-1
13/06/26HSAM Vs Kolkheti Poti2-2
30/05/26AGareji Vs SAM3-2
06/12/25HSAM Vs Merani Martvili1-2
29/11/25AMeshakhte Vs SAM1-0
25/11/25HSAM Vs Gonio3-2
21/11/25ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs SAM1-2
08/11/25HSAM Vs Spaeri1-1

GoriGori

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HGOR Vs Sioni4-1
22/06/26AMerani Martvili Vs GOR0-2
17/06/26AKolkheti Poti Vs GOR1-1
13/06/26HGOR Vs Gareji1-3
30/05/26ATelavi Vs GOR1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLW1.10
HomeWDWLD1.33
AwayLLLLW0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.562.252.85
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %48%33%62%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.221.251.19
Conceded1.341.001.65
BTTS58%58%58%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Gori
Gori
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW1.40
HomeLW1.50
AwayLDW1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%50%33%
AVG goals2.804.501.67
Over 1.5 %80%100%67%
Over 2.5 %40%100%0%
Over 3.5 %40%100%0%
Scored1.602.501.00
Conceded1.202.000.67
BTTS60%100%33%
Clean Sheet20%0%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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