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Samtredia vs Merani Martvili Prediction & Stats

Date: 20/09/2026
Time: 12:00
Samtredia
Samtredia
Vs
51%
29%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Samtredia are tipped to win, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 30% draw probability and a 24% chance of Merani Martvili taking the victory. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% probability. Home side Samtredia, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.15 conceded; Merani Martvili, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.7%), Home +2 handicap (91.0%) and Under 4.5 (90.8%). Samtredia are on a four-game winning streak, having beaten Odishi 1919 3-0, while Merani Martvili return from a defeat, losing 0-1 to Telavi.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Samtredia win
51.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili win
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L23L22D12L23L42W10W10W30WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.331.931.071.441.56
vs Stronger (29)1.691.382.001.151.441.56
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W21W11D02L21W02L12L00D01L12LH·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06A·SHT08/08H·ODI15/08A·TEL22/08H·GAR29/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.431.201.330.531.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.801.361.251.330.381.38
vs Weaker (5)1.201.801.001.331.502.50
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.7%
Under 1.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.2%
Under 2.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.2%
No
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
12.9%
2-0
10.6%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
5.3%
Samtredia goals ↓
Merani Martvili goals →
01234
011%6.9%3.5%1.0%0.2%
113%13%5.3%1.5%0.3%
211%9.2%4.0%1.1%0.2%
35.3%4.6%2.0%0.6%0.1%
42.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samtredia goals (down), columns = Merani Martvili goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Samtredia is 1.00 points better than Merani Martvili in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Samtredia is 1.38 goals better than Merani Martvili in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Samtredia is 0.12 goals worse than Merani Martvili in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Samtredia or Draw
79.6%
Avg Implied -
51%
29%
20%
covers Samtredia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia or Merani Martvili
71.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
29%
20%
covers Samtredia + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Merani Martvili
48.9%
Avg Implied -
51%
29%
20%
covers Draw + Merani Martvili
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Samtredia over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Samtredia, so a minus line means Samtredia give that many goals of a start and Merani Martvili receive them. At -1, Samtredia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Samtredia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -2
10.9%
Draw -2
16.0%
Merani Martvili +2
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -1
26.9%
Draw -1
24.2%
Merani Martvili +1
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +1
79.6%
Draw +1
13.4%
Merani Martvili -1
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +2
93.0%
Draw +2
5.3%
Merani Martvili -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SamtrediaSamtredia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L01L10W11D21W00D10W20WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.571.070.360.880.75
vs Stronger (29)1.000.591.150.380.880.75
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D20W00D01L01L00D01L00D00D01LH·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06A·SHT08/08H·ODI15/08A·TEL22/08H·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.600.530.600.270.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.360.560.580.670.150.46
vs Weaker (5)0.600.800.330.331.001.50
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SamtrediaSamtredia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W21W21W02L12L21W10W00D10WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.770.860.710.560.81
vs Stronger (29)0.690.790.850.770.560.81
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Merani Martvili) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L11D01L20W02L11D00D01L11DH·SAB29/11A·SAM06/12A·ARA29/05A·SIO13/06H·SAM17/06H·GOR22/06A·SHT08/08H·ODI15/08A·TEL22/08H·GAR29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.670.730.270.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.440.800.670.670.230.92
vs Weaker (5)0.601.000.671.000.501.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merani Martvili over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.7%-------
Under 6.598.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.8%-------
Under 5.596.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals94.3%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.4%-------
Home +2 handicap93.0%-------
Under 4.590.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals80.7%-------
Home or Draw79.6%-------
Home +1 handicap79.6%-------
Away under 1.5 goals78.6%-------
Under 3.578.5%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.8%-------
Away +2 handicap73.1%-------
Home or Away71.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
SAM wins
1
Draws
3
MM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Samtredia vs Merani Martvili · H/A from SAM
DateH/AGameScore
17/06/26AMerani Martvili Vs SAM2-1
06/12/25HSAM Vs Merani Martvili1-2
05/10/25AMerani Martvili Vs SAM1-1
11/08/25HSAM Vs Merani Martvili4-1
28/04/25AMerani Martvili Vs SAM1-0
27/11/22HSAM Vs Merani Martvili1-0
30/09/22AMerani Martvili Vs SAM1-2
15/06/22HSAM Vs Merani Martvili3-1

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HSAM Vs Odishi 19193-0
22/08/26AShturmi Vs SAM0-1
15/08/26HSAM Vs Gori1-0
08/08/26AAragvi Dusheti Vs SAM2-4
22/06/26ASioni Vs SAM3-2
17/06/26AMerani Martvili Vs SAM2-1
13/06/26HSAM Vs Kolkheti Poti2-2
30/05/26AGareji Vs SAM3-2
06/12/25HSAM Vs Merani Martvili1-2
29/11/25AMeshakhte Vs SAM1-0

Merani MartviliMerani Martvili

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMM Vs Gareji1-2
22/08/26ATelavi Vs MM1-0
15/08/26HMM Vs Odishi 19190-0
08/08/26AShturmi Vs MM2-1
22/06/26HMM Vs Gori0-2
17/06/26HMM Vs Samtredia2-1
13/06/26ASioni Vs MM2-0
29/05/26AAragvi Dusheti Vs MM1-1
06/12/25ASamtredia Vs MM1-2
29/11/25HMM Vs Saburtalo II3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.20
HomeWLDWW1.46
AwayLLLWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.582.252.88
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %48%33%62%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.281.331.23
Conceded1.300.921.65
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.24
HomeWWLDL1.40
AwayWDLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.722.882.56
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.081.360.80
Conceded1.641.521.76
BTTS54%64%44%
Clean Sheet22%20%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
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Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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