Samtredia’s home advantage and recent four-game winning streak make a home win the model’s pick, with a 45% chance of victory, a 30% draw probability, and a 25% chance of Shturmi taking the win. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which the model assigns a 14.1% probability. In terms of attacking and defensive output, Samtredia averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.15 conceded at home against stronger opponents, while Shturmi, playing away against weaker teams, averages 1.0 goal scored and 3.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.5%), Under 4.5 (91.1%), and Home +2 handicap (90.6%). These probabilities reflect the match’s expected low-scoring, home-favoured nature.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Samtredia win
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shturmi win
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Samtredia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.33
1.93
1.07
1.44
1.56
vs Stronger (29)
1.69
1.38
2.00
1.15
1.44
1.56
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.07
1.07
0.86
0.88
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.00
1.00
1.15
0.85
0.87
1.13
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.2%
Under 1.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.6%
Under 2.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.7%
No
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
10.9%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.5%
Samtredia goals ↓
Shturmi goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.0%
4.5%
1.5%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.2%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.1%
8.8%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.2%
4.0%
2.0%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samtredia goals (down), columns = Shturmi goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Samtredia is 0.62 points better than Shturmi in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Samtredia is 1.38 goals better than Shturmi in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Samtredia is 0.38 goals worse than Shturmi in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Samtredia or Draw
74.8%
Avg Implied -
45%
30%
25%
covers Samtredia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia or Shturmi
70.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
30%
25%
covers Samtredia + Shturmi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Shturmi
55.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
30%
25%
covers Draw + Shturmi
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Samtredia over/under 0.5
Over
74.7%
Under
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5
Over
25.3%
Under
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Samtredia, so a minus line means Samtredia give that many goals of a start and Shturmi receive them. At -1, Samtredia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Samtredia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -2
8.2%
Draw -2
13.8%
Shturmi +2
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -1
22.0%
Draw -1
22.9%
Shturmi +1
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +1
74.8%
Draw +1
15.8%
Shturmi -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +2
90.6%
Draw +2
6.9%
Shturmi -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Samtredia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.07
0.36
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (29)
1.00
0.59
1.15
0.38
0.88
0.75
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.43
0.71
0.29
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.43
0.77
0.23
0.53
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Samtredia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (29)
0.69
0.79
0.85
0.77
0.56
0.81
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shturmi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shturmi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.62
0.33
0.53
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shturmi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Telavi
Gareji
Sioni
Aragvi Dusheti
Odishi 1919
Gori
Kolkheti Poti
Merani Martvili