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Samtredia vs Sioni Prediction & Stats

Date: 10/10/2026
Time: 12:00
Samtredia
Samtredia
Vs
43%
28%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sioni
Sioni
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Samtredia are tipped to win, a 43% chance against a 28% draw and 29% for Sioni, with the model’s pick a home victory. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% probability. Samtredia, playing at home against a stronger side, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.15 conceded, while Sioni, on the road to a weaker opponent, average 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8%), Under 5.5 (94.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.3%), Home +2 handicap (87.6%), and Under 4.5 (86.8%). Samtredia are on a four-game winning streak, having beaten Odishi 1919 3-0, while Sioni are on a two-game run, having edged Telavi 2-1.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Samtredia win
42.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sioni win
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L23L22D12L23L42W10W10W30WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.331.931.071.441.56
vs Stronger (29)1.691.382.001.151.441.56
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SioniSioni

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W50W00D20W23L32W14L01L10W21WA·DIN29/11H·GON06/12A·KOL30/05H·MER13/06A·ARA17/06H·SAM22/06A·GOR08/08H·SHT15/08A·ODI22/08H·TEL29/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.431.601.471.531.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.741.301.731.451.751.17
vs Weaker (7)1.001.861.251.500.672.33
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.8%
Under 2.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.4%
Samtredia goals ↓
Sioni goals →
01234
08.2%7.0%4.9%1.9%0.6%
19.1%13%7.2%2.8%0.8%
27.6%9.0%5.4%2.1%0.6%
33.8%4.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
41.4%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samtredia goals (down), columns = Sioni goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Telavi
2.12
Gareji
1.75
Sioni
1.62
Samtredia
1.62
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Odishi 1919
1.38
Gori
1.25
Shturmi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
0.75
Merani Martvili
0.62
Samtredia and Sioni are level in average points per game (both 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Samtredia
2.00
Gareji
1.50
Sioni
1.38
Gori
1.38
Aragvi Dusheti
1.38
Telavi
1.00
Kolkheti Poti
1.00
Odishi 1919
0.88
Merani Martvili
0.62
Shturmi
0.62
Samtredia is 0.62 goals better than Sioni in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Telavi
0.38
Shturmi
1.12
Gori
1.12
Odishi 1919
1.12
Gareji
1.25
Kolkheti Poti
1.25
Aragvi Dusheti
1.25
Merani Martvili
1.38
Sioni
1.38
Samtredia
1.50
Samtredia is 0.12 goals worse than Sioni in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Samtredia or Draw
70.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Samtredia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia or Sioni
71.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Samtredia + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sioni
57.2%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Sioni
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Samtredia over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5
Over
69.4%
Under
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Samtredia, so a minus line means Samtredia give that many goals of a start and Sioni receive them. At -1, Samtredia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Samtredia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -2
8.4%
Draw -2
13.2%
Sioni +2
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia -1
21.6%
Draw -1
21.2%
Sioni +1
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +1
70.9%
Draw +1
16.7%
Sioni -1
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Samtredia)
Samtredia +2
87.6%
Draw +2
8.4%
Sioni -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SamtrediaSamtredia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L01L10W11D21W00D10W20WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.571.070.360.880.75
vs Stronger (29)1.000.591.150.380.880.75
vs Similar (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SioniSioni

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W00D10W22D11D01L00D10W11DA·DIN29/11H·GON06/12A·KOL30/05H·MER13/06A·ARA17/06H·SAM22/06A·GOR08/08H·SHT15/08A·ODI22/08H·TEL29/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.670.670.730.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.830.610.730.640.920.58
vs Weaker (7)0.290.710.500.750.000.67
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SamtrediaSamtredia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W21W21W02L12L21W10W00D10WA·MES29/11H·MER06/12A·GAR30/05H·KOL13/06A·MER17/06A·SIO22/06A·ARA08/08H·GOR15/08A·SHT22/08H·ODI28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.770.860.710.560.81
vs Stronger (29)0.690.790.850.770.560.81
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sioni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SioniSioni

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W40W00D10W01L21W13L01L00D10WA·DIN29/11H·GON06/12A·KOL30/05H·MER13/06A·ARA17/06H·SAM22/06A·GOR08/08H·SHT15/08A·ODI22/08H·TEL29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.800.930.800.800.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.910.701.000.820.830.58
vs Weaker (7)0.711.140.750.750.671.67
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sioni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.4%-------
Under 6.598.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Under 5.594.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.7%-------
Away under 2.5 goals88.3%-------
Home +2 handicap87.6%-------
Under 4.586.8%-------
Home under 2.5 goals81.3%-------
Away +2 handicap78.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.3%-------
Over 1.575.7%-------
Under 3.572.2%-------
Home or Away71.9%-------
Home or Draw70.9%-------
Home +1 handicap70.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (3)
€0m
SAM (4)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KP (2)
€0m
GOR (2)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (1)
€0m
KP (0)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAM (2)
€0m
KP (1)
€0m
GOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
5
SAM wins
1
Draws
1
SIO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Samtredia vs Sioni · H/A from SAM
DateH/AGameScore
22/06/26ASioni Vs SAM3-2
26/10/25HSAM Vs Sioni2-1
31/08/25ASioni Vs SAM0-3
15/05/25HSAM Vs Sioni0-0
29/03/25ASioni Vs SAM0-1
11/12/22ASioni Vs SAM0-2
07/12/22HSAM Vs Sioni1-0

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HSAM Vs Odishi 19193-0
22/08/26AShturmi Vs SAM0-1
15/08/26HSAM Vs Gori1-0
08/08/26AAragvi Dusheti Vs SAM2-4
22/06/26ASioni Vs SAM3-2
17/06/26AMerani Martvili Vs SAM2-1
13/06/26HSAM Vs Kolkheti Poti2-2
30/05/26AGareji Vs SAM3-2
06/12/25HSAM Vs Merani Martvili1-2
29/11/25AMeshakhte Vs SAM1-0

SioniSioni

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HSIO Vs Telavi2-1
22/08/26AOdishi 1919 Vs SIO0-1
15/08/26HSIO Vs Shturmi0-1
08/08/26AGori Vs SIO4-1
22/06/26HSIO Vs Samtredia3-2
17/06/26AAragvi Dusheti Vs SIO3-2
13/06/26HSIO Vs Merani Martvili2-0
30/05/26AKolkheti Poti Vs SIO0-0
06/12/25HSIO Vs Gonio5-0
29/11/25ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs SIO1-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWW1.20
HomeWLDWW1.46
AwayLLLWW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.582.252.88
Over 1.5 %70%71%69%
Over 2.5 %48%33%62%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.281.331.23
Conceded1.300.921.65
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Sioni
Sioni
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.40
HomeWWWLW1.48
AwayWDLLW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.722.802.64
Over 1.5 %70%76%64%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %28%24%32%
Scored1.441.561.32
Conceded1.281.241.32
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TelaviTelavi817
62%
2.1
83+5
1.4
38%
12%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.4
-
2GarejiGareji814
50%
1.8
1210+2
2.8
75%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
3SamtrediaSamtredia813
50%
1.6
1612+4
3.5
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
4SioniSioni813
50%
1.6
1111+0
2.8
62%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
5Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti812
38%
1.5
1110+1
2.6
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Odishi 1919Odishi 1919811
38%
1.4
79-2
2.0
62%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
7GoriGori810
38%
1.2
119+2
2.5
62%
38%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8ShturmiShturmi88
25%
1.0
59-4
1.8
50%
38%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.1
-
9Kolkheti PotiKolkheti Poti86
0%
0.8
810-2
2.2
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Merani MartviliMerani Martvili85
12%
0.6
511-6
2.0
75%
38%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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