San Giovanni are tipped to win this San-Marino Campionato clash, with a 55 % chance of victory, 25 % for a draw and 20 % for Cailungo to come out on top. The model expects 2.8 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 12.1 %. San Giovanni, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Cailungo, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 0.73 goals scored and 2.55 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.2 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 99.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.2 %, Under 6.5 at 97.7 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.3 %, Under 11.5 corners at 94.1 %, Under 5.5 at 93.8 % and Over 23.5 fouls at 93.8 %. San Giovanni’s recent form shows a 2-straight-defeat slump, last losing 0-4 to Tre Penne, whereas Cailungo has come off a 1-1 draw with San Marino Academy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Giovanni win
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cailungo win
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
San Giovanni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.00
1.53
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.25
0.43
2.43
0.40
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.93
1.50
0.83
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.37
0.75
2.31
0.86
2.43
vs Stronger (23)
0.74
2.65
0.77
2.54
0.70
2.80
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
1.33
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
6.6%
3-1
6.1%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.7%
San Giovanni goals ↓
Cailungo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
4.7%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.1%
12%
5.7%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.8%
6.1%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.7%
2.8%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = San Giovanni goals (down), columns = Cailungo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
San Giovanni is 0.67 points better than Cailungo in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 0.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
San Giovanni is 0.03 goals better than Cailungo in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
San Giovanni is 0.93 goals better than Cailungo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
San Giovanni
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cailungo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
San Giovanni
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.0
4.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
32.0
32.0
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
4.0
4.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
32.0
32.0
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (38)
5.0
-
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
18.2%
Under 9.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.2%
Under 3.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.3%
Under 21.5
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
San Giovanni or Draw
79.6%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
20%
covers San Giovanni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni or Cailungo
75.1%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
20%
covers San Giovanni + Cailungo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cailungo
45.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
20%
covers Draw + Cailungo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5
Over
84.2%
Under
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 3.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5
Over
65.2%
Under
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5
Over
28.5%
Under
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to San Giovanni, so a minus line means San Giovanni give that many goals of a start and Cailungo receive them. At -1, San Giovanni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal San Giovanni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (San Giovanni)
San Giovanni -2
14.9%
Draw -2
17.1%
Cailungo +2
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (San Giovanni)
San Giovanni -1
32.0%
Draw -1
22.7%
Cailungo +1
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (San Giovanni)
San Giovanni +1
79.6%
Draw +1
12.6%
Cailungo -1
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (San Giovanni)
San Giovanni +2
92.2%
Draw +2
5.6%
Cailungo -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
San Giovanni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.38
1.00
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.30
1.17
0.38
1.15
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.14
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
San Giovanni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.25
0.29
1.43
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cailungo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.38
1.31
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
1.48
0.38
1.38
0.50
1.60
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.29
0.33
1.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 19.5 fouls
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cailungo have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cailungo have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cailungo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cailungo have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata