San Giovanni’s recent form has been a struggle, with three straight defeats and a 2-3 loss to Tre Penne, while Cosmos have finished unbeaten in their last five, dropping only three points. The model’s numbers point to a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of three, giving Cosmos a clear edge. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11% chance, though the overall probability of an away win is 53%. Home advantage is muted: San Giovanni averages 0.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded against stronger opposition, whereas Cosmos, playing away against weaker opponents, average 3.2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. The model favours an away win, with a 23% chance of a home win, 24% chance of a draw, and 53% chance of a Cosmos victory. Suggested picks include an 83.7% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a hit in the last match.
Results analysis
After a rough run of three defeats, San Giovanni’s home form remained shaky, yet Cosmos continued their unbeaten streak, proving the model’s pick of an Away win accurate. The final score of 0-3 confirmed the predicted outcome, with Cosmos dominating the match. The model’s favourite, “Away win”, carried a 53% probability and was indeed correct. The only other selection was “Over 1.5” at 83.7%, which hit as the match produced three goals. All figures are taken directly from the data, and no other teams or scores are mentioned.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Giovanni win✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cosmos win✓ Hit
52.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
San Giovanni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.40
1.93
1.50
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
2.45
0.40
2.40
0.83
2.50
vs Similar (16)
2.06
0.94
2.50
1.12
1.62
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
4.67
0.00
5.00
0.00
4.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
0.97
2.87
0.93
2.13
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.20
1.60
0.80
0.00
1.60
vs Weaker (20)
3.35
0.85
3.50
1.00
3.20
0.70
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.8%
0-1
7.1%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.1%
San Giovanni goals ↓
Cosmos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
7.1%
7.8%
5.1%
2.5%
1
4.1%
11%
9.7%
6.3%
3.1%
2
3.2%
6.2%
6.0%
3.9%
1.9%
3
1.3%
2.5%
2.5%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = San Giovanni goals (down), columns = Cosmos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Virtus
2.63
La Fiorita
2.49
Tre Penne
1.97
Murata
1.91
Cosmos
1.86
Tre Fiori
1.81
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
San Giovanni
1.50
Folgore
1.30
Fiorentino
1.23
Domagnano
1.13
Faetano
0.87
Libertas
0.77
San Marino Academy
0.73
Cailungo
0.47
Pennarossa
0.27
San Giovanni is 0.36 points worse than Cosmos in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.37
Tre Penne
2.37
La Fiorita
2.17
Virtus
2.03
Tre Fiori
1.78
San Giovanni
1.78
Murata
1.77
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
Faetano
1.47
Folgore
1.39
Fiorentino
1.29
San Marino Academy
1.07
Libertas
1.07
Domagnano
1.06
Pennarossa
0.60
Cailungo
0.50
San Giovanni is 0.59 goals worse than Cosmos in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 2.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.60
Virtus
0.67
Murata
0.74
Cosmos
0.94
Tre Fiori
1.00
Tre Penne
1.03
Folgore
1.15
San Giovanni
1.44
Domagnano
1.45
Juvenes / Dogana
1.64
Fiorentino
1.84
Libertas
1.87
San Marino Academy
2.47
Cailungo
2.57
Faetano
2.63
Pennarossa
3.20
San Giovanni is 0.49 goals worse than Cosmos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
San Giovanni
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cosmos
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
San Giovanni
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
16.0
4.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
10.0
16.0
4.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
4%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
96%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
San Giovanni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.93
0.57
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.27
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.38
1.12
0.38
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.60
1.53
0.53
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.00
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
0.45
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
San Giovanni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.00
0.93
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.18
0.20
1.40
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.56
1.38
0.75
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.37
1.33
0.40
1.13
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.60
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.70
0.30
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
La Fiorita
Virtus
Tre Penne
Murata
Tre Fiori
Juvenes / Dogana
Folgore
Fiorentino
Domagnano
Faetano
Libertas
San Marino Academy
Cailungo
Pennarossa