San Giovanni’s defensive record at home is fragile, conceding 1.5 goals on average against stronger opposition, while Cosmos has shown a balanced away form, scoring and conceding 1.38 against weaker sides. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 1.8 goals and a most likely total of two, yet the single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 18.3% chance. The probabilities for the match result are 28% home win, 36% draw, and 36% away win, with a draw being the favourite outcome. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 4.5 (96.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.1%), and Away under 2.5 goals (92.7%). The recent form shows San Giovanni struggling after three straight defeats, while Cosmos remains unbeaten in their last five.
Results analysis
San Giovanni finished 0-2 against Cosmos (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 28% home win, 36% draw and 36% away win. Picks that landed: Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (100%), Home under 3.5 goals (99%), Under 5.5 (99%), Away under 3.5 goals (98%), Under 4.5 (97%), Home under 2.5 goals (95%), Away under 2.5 goals (93%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Giovanni win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cosmos win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
San Giovanni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.53
1.20
1.20
1.80
1.87
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
2.15
1.00
1.50
1.43
2.71
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.13
1.38
1.00
2.00
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.23
1.35
1.35
1.62
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.08
0.88
1.38
2.00
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
1.35
1.78
1.33
1.38
1.38
Clean sheet %
30% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.2%
Under 1.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.2%
Under 2.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.4%
Under 3.5
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
35.7%
No
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.3%
0-1
15.0%
1-1
14.6%
1-0
12.5%
0-2 ✓
7.8%
1-2
6.4%
2-0
5.6%
2-1
5.4%
San Giovanni goals ↓
Cosmos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
15%
7.8%
2.5%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
5.6%
5.4%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
3
1.5%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = San Giovanni goals (down), columns = Cosmos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
2.50
Virtus
2.14
La Fiorita
2.00
Folgore
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Domagnano
0.50
Cosmos
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Murata
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
San Giovanni is 0.75 points better than Cosmos in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.33
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.43
San Giovanni
1.00
La Fiorita
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Fiorentino
0.00
Murata
0.00
Libertas
0.00
San Giovanni and Cosmos are level in goals scored per game (both 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.00
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Murata
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Domagnano
1.00
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Pennarossa
1.00
Fiorentino
1.50
Cosmos
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
San Giovanni is 0.25 goals worse than Cosmos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
San Giovanni or Draw✗ Miss
63.8%
Avg Implied -
28%
36%
36%
covers San Giovanni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni or Cosmos✓ Hit
64.3%
Avg Implied -
28%
36%
36%
covers San Giovanni + Cosmos
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cosmos✓ Hit
71.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
36%
36%
covers Draw + Cosmos
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to San Giovanni, so a minus line means San Giovanni give that many goals of a start and Cosmos receive them. At -1, San Giovanni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal San Giovanni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (San Giovanni)Actual: Cosmos
San Giovanni -2
2.3%
Draw -2
7.2%
Cosmos +2
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (San Giovanni)Actual: Cosmos
San Giovanni -1
9.5%
Draw -1
18.6%
Cosmos +1
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (San Giovanni)Actual: Cosmos
San Giovanni +1
63.8%
Draw +1
22.2%
Cosmos -1
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (San Giovanni)Actual: Draw
San Giovanni +2
86.0%
Draw +2
10.1%
Cosmos -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
San Giovanni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.47
0.33
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.23
0.50
0.50
0.43
1.86
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.33
0.50
0.25
1.14
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.41
0.65
0.54
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.75
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
0.53
0.59
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
San Giovanni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.73
0.87
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
0.92
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.80
0.88
0.75
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
0.94
0.71
1.08
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.46
0.62
0.62
1.40
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.06
0.76
1.22
0.78
0.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →