San Giovanni’s defensive record at home is stark: they concede an average of 2.43 goals against stronger opposition, while scoring only 0.43. Cosmos, on the road, has a more potent attack, netting 1.62 goals per game, and a solid 0.62 conceded against weaker teams. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 1.7 goals, most likely a single goal. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 19.6% chance, and the model’s pick is a draw. Home win probability sits at 28%, draw at 37%, and away win at 36%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Under 5.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6%), Under 4.5 (97.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.6%) and Away under 2.5 goals (93.4%). The recent form shows San Giovanni after three straight defeats, while Cosmos remains unbeaten in their last five.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Giovanni win
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cosmos win
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
San Giovanni
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.00
1.53
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.25
0.43
2.43
0.40
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.93
1.50
0.83
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
0.81
0.75
1.14
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
1.23
0.17
1.00
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
0.65
1.20
0.60
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.8%
Under 1.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.9%
Under 2.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
9.7%
Under 3.5
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
34.5%
No
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
19.1%
0-1
15.4%
1-1
14.5%
1-0
12.7%
0-2
7.8%
1-2
6.2%
2-0
5.5%
2-1
5.2%
San Giovanni goals ↓
Cosmos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
15%
7.8%
2.4%
0.6%
1
13%
14%
6.2%
1.9%
0.5%
2
5.5%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
1.5%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = San Giovanni goals (down), columns = Cosmos goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
San Giovanni is 0.75 points better than Cosmos in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
San Giovanni is 0.25 goals better than Cosmos in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
San Giovanni is 1.25 goals better than Cosmos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
San Giovanni or Draw
64.0%
Avg Implied -
28%
36%
36%
covers San Giovanni + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni or Cosmos
63.8%
Avg Implied -
28%
36%
36%
covers San Giovanni + Cosmos
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cosmos
72.2%
Avg Implied -
28%
36%
36%
covers Draw + Cosmos
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5
Over
54.5%
Under
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5
Over
60.8%
Under
39.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to San Giovanni, so a minus line means San Giovanni give that many goals of a start and Cosmos receive them. At -1, San Giovanni must win by two or more to land; a one-goal San Giovanni win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (San Giovanni)
San Giovanni -2
2.1%
Draw -2
7.0%
Cosmos +2
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (San Giovanni)
San Giovanni -1
9.2%
Draw -1
18.6%
Cosmos +1
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (San Giovanni)
San Giovanni +1
64.0%
Draw +1
22.3%
Cosmos -1
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (San Giovanni)
San Giovanni +2
86.4%
Draw +2
9.9%
Cosmos -2
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
San Giovanni
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.08
0.69
0.00
0.33
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
0.59
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.86
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
San Giovanni
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.25
0.29
1.43
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cosmos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cosmos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.54
0.17
0.67
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.82
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.86
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (San Giovanni) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
San Giovanni over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Giovanni over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cosmos over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
San Giovanni and Cosmos have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
La Fiorita
Virtus
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata