San Giovanni vs Tre Penne Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 58% chance for Tre Penne, a 25% chance of a draw and a 17% chance of a San Giovanni victory. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, but the most probable total is two goals, making a 1-1 scoreline the single most likely outcome at 12%. San Giovanni, playing at home against a stronger side, averages only 0.17 goals scored and concedes 2.33. Tre Penne, on the road against a weaker opponent, scores 2.5 and concedes just 0.7. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 99.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.3% and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.5%. San Giovanni’s recent form shows two straight defeats, while Tre Penne comes off a win.

The away side’s recent two-game winning run carried into the match, and the model’s prediction of an away win proved accurate as Tre Penne edged San Giovanni 3-2. The favourite, chosen with a 58% probability, was indeed correct. The model’s selections also performed strongly: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.2% and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.5%. All picks settled as hits, confirming the model’s overall accuracy. The final score of 2-3 matched the predicted outcome, and the home side’s form note of three straight defeats underscored the away side’s advantage.