The contest between San Marino Academy and Faetano is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 34 % and 38 % respectively, while a draw is 28 %. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely score is 1-1, carrying a 13.5 % chance. San Marino Academy, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded; Faetano, on the road, averages 0.88 scored and 1.5 conceded. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Over 19.5 fouls (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (98.0 %), Over 21.5 fouls (97.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.7 %), Under 5.5 (94.3 %), and Over 23.5 fouls (93.9 %). Recent form shows San Marino Academy coming off a draw, while Faetano is after two straight defeats, adding another layer of uncertainty to the outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Marino Academy win
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Faetano win
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
San Marino Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.03
0.75
2.31
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
2.19
0.55
2.64
0.00
1.70
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.67
1.20
1.60
2.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.80
0.80
1.47
0.60
2.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.20
1.40
0.40
2.60
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.70
1.10
1.50
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.7%
Under 2.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.6%
No
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
8.3%
0-1
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.2%
2-0
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
San Marino Academy goals ↓
Faetano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
8.3%
6.2%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.3%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.2%
5.4%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.7%
3.6%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = San Marino Academy goals (down), columns = Faetano goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
San Marino Academy is 0.20 points worse than Faetano in terms of average points per game (0.53 vs 0.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
San Marino Academy is 0.03 goals better than Faetano in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 0.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
San Marino Academy is 0.17 goals worse than Faetano in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
San Marino Academy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Faetano
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
San Marino Academy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
-
12.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (34)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
12.0
-
12.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
-
0%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
21.2%
Under 9.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
San Marino Academy or Draw
64.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
35%
covers San Marino Academy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy or Faetano
71.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
35%
covers San Marino Academy + Faetano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Faetano
64.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
29%
35%
covers Draw + Faetano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5
Over
73.1%
Under
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5
Over
37.6%
Under
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to San Marino Academy, so a minus line means San Marino Academy give that many goals of a start and Faetano receive them. At -1, San Marino Academy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal San Marino Academy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (San Marino Academy)
San Marino Academy -2
5.8%
Draw -2
10.7%
Faetano +2
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (San Marino Academy)
San Marino Academy -1
16.5%
Draw -1
19.2%
Faetano +1
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (San Marino Academy)
San Marino Academy +1
64.5%
Draw +1
19.1%
Faetano -1
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (San Marino Academy)
San Marino Academy +2
83.7%
Draw +2
10.6%
Faetano -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
San Marino Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.97
0.25
1.19
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
1.05
0.27
1.45
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.20
0.60
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.83
0.13
0.87
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.00
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.0%
Under 0.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.2%
Under 1.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.0%
Under 2.5
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
San Marino Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.07
0.50
1.12
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
1.14
0.27
1.18
0.00
1.10
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.67
0.60
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.90
0.90
0.50
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.4%
Under 0.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.8%
Under 1.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.2%
Under 2.5
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.8%
Under
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
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Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
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Home over 0.5 goals
73.1%
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Under 3.5
73.1%
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Away over 0.5 goals
73.0%
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Home or Away
71.2%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
San Marino Academy and Faetano have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
San Marino Academy and Faetano have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
San Marino Academy and Faetano have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
San Marino Academy and Faetano have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
Pennarossa
Murata