The model points to an away win as the clear favourite, rating Haugesund at 64% versus Sandnes ULF’s 18% and a 18% chance of a draw. The edge comes from Haugesund’s stronger away form, scoring 1.67 goals and conceding 2.33 against similar opposition, while Sandnes ULF struggles at home, averaging 1.14 scored and 2.14 conceded. The expected total of 4.1 goals and the most likely total of 6+ (23%) suggest a high-scoring affair, yet the single most probable scoreline is 1-2, a 8.5% chance. The home side’s recent 2-game winning run is tempered by a 3-0 loss to Raufoss, whereas Haugesund’s 2-game winning streak includes a 2-0 victory over Bryne. The model’s selections reflect this imbalance: Home under 3.5 goals94.5%, Under 7.594.3%, Away over 0.5 goals93.2%, Away +2 handicap92.4%, Over 1.592.1%, Under 6.587.9%, Home under 2.5 goals83.1%, and Draw or Away82.3%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sandnes ULF win
17.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haugesund win
64.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sandnes ULF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.27
0.79
2.57
1.19
2.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
2.67
0.43
3.00
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (16)
1.31
2.06
1.14
2.14
1.44
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
-
-
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.37
1.38
2.25
1.36
2.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
2.62
1.00
2.50
0.80
2.80
vs Similar (17)
1.71
2.18
1.75
2.00
1.67
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.2%
Under 1.5
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.6%
Under 2.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
58.5%
Under 3.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.9%
No
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.5%
1-3
7.6%
1-1
6.9%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
5.4%
2-3
5.3%
1-4
5.1%
Sandnes ULF goals ↓
Haugesund goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
3.9%
6.0%
5.4%
3.7%
1
1.7%
6.9%
8.5%
7.6%
5.1%
2
1.6%
4.4%
5.9%
5.3%
3.6%
3
0.8%
2.1%
2.8%
2.5%
1.7%
4
0.3%
0.7%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sandnes ULF goals (down), columns = Haugesund goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Sandnes ULF is 1.57 points worse than Haugesund in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Sandnes ULF is 2.00 goals worse than Haugesund in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 3.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Sandnes ULF is 0.71 goals worse than Haugesund in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sandnes ULF or Draw
35.8%
Avg Implied -
17%
18%
64%
covers Sandnes ULF + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF or Haugesund
81.7%
Avg Implied -
17%
18%
64%
covers Sandnes ULF + Haugesund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Haugesund
82.5%
Avg Implied -
17%
18%
64%
covers Draw + Haugesund
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 0.5
Over
93.2%
Under
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 3.5
Over
28.4%
Under
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sandnes ULF, so a minus line means Sandnes ULF give that many goals of a start and Haugesund receive them. At -1, Sandnes ULF must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sandnes ULF win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sandnes ULF)
Sandnes ULF -2
2.5%
Draw -2
5.0%
Haugesund +2
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sandnes ULF)
Sandnes ULF -1
7.5%
Draw -1
9.9%
Haugesund +1
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sandnes ULF)
Sandnes ULF +1
35.8%
Draw +1
19.7%
Haugesund -1
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sandnes ULF)
Sandnes ULF +2
55.5%
Draw +2
18.3%
Haugesund -2
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sandnes ULF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.83
0.29
0.71
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.62
0.43
0.43
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
-
-
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.81
0.88
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.77
0.38
0.75
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.06
1.25
1.00
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sandnes ULF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.43
0.50
1.86
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.67
0.29
2.00
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (16)
0.81
1.44
0.71
1.71
0.89
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Haugesund) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Haugesund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.43
0.56
1.38
0.79
1.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.85
0.62
1.75
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.12
0.50
1.00
1.11
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haugesund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Haugesund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sory Diarra24%
Runar Espejord14%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Havard Karlsen10%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Emil Rohd8%
Julius Eskesen8%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Ismaël Seone6%
Sander Innvær6%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Madiodio Dia4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Parfait Bizoza0%
Miika Koskela0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miika Koskela38%
Bruno Leite29%
Martin Alvsaker25%
Julius Eskesen23%
Madiodio Dia22%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug18%
Niko Hämäläinen15%
Ilir Kukleci14%
Troy Nyhammer14%
Mikkel Fischer12%
Parfait Bizoza10%
Emil Rohd8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Oscar Krusnell7%
Morten Agnes Konradsen6%
Ismael Camara6%
Sory Diarra5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Claus Niyukuri4%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Sander Innvær0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jasper Silva Torkildsen33%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Claus Niyukuri9%
Niko Hämäläinen8%
Pyry Hannola8%
Anders Bondhus7%
Bruno Leite5%
Sory Diarra5%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Julius Eskesen0%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Morten Agnes Konradsen0%
Amund Wichne0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Runar Espejord0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Mikkel Hope0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Runar Espejord29%
Julius Eskesen15%
Morten Agnes Konradsen12%
Sory Diarra10%
Almar Gjerd Grindhaug9%
Troy Nyhammer5%
Mikkel Hope5%
Parfait Bizoza3%
Martin Bjørnbak0%
Amund Wichne0%
Bruno Leite0%
Martin Samuelsen0%
Oscar Krusnell0%
Niko Hämäläinen0%
Miika Koskela0%
Ilir Kukleci0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Claus Niyukuri0%
Jasper Silva Torkildsen0%
Eivind Helgeland0%
Vegard Solheim0%
Mikkel Fischer0%
Sander Innvær0%
Martin Alvsaker0%
Emil Rohd0%
Anders Bondhus0%
Ismaël Seone0%
Madiodio Dia0%
Amidou Traore0%
Einar Fauskanger0%
Lars Tanggaard Eide0%
Ismael Camara0%
Havard Karlsen0%
Fabian Andre Jakobsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Sandnes ULF's squad is €6m less valuable than Haugesund's (€3m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Sandnes ULF's attack is €2m less valuable than Haugesund's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Sandnes ULF and Haugesund have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Sandnes ULF's defence is €2m less valuable than Haugesund's (€1m vs €4m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss