Sandnes ULF is coming off two straight defeats, having been defeated 0-2 by Egersund in their last match. However, they have a chance to turn their form around at home against hodd. The model predicts a home win, with a 46% probability of Sandnes ULF emerging victorious. The draw is seen as a 23% possibility, while hodd winning away is estimated at 31%. The expected total number of goals is 3.6, with the most likely total being 3 goals.
The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 9.7% probability. In their home matches against similar opponents, Sandnes ULF has scored an average of 1.22 goals and conceded 2.89 goals. Meanwhile, hodd has scored 1 goal and conceded 2.78 goals in their away matches against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which it predicts with an 88.1% probability and an 8% edge. This selection suggests that the model expects a higher-scoring match than the expected total number of goals. The home win percentage is 46%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 31%. The model also suggests a 1.5 goals Over selection, with a 88.1% probability.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came as hodd edged past Sandnes ULF 3-4, with the latter's recent struggles continuing. The win extends their losing streak to five games, which started after three straight defeats. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, holding a 46% probability of success. The model's call was wrong, as the pre-match favourite failed to come through. The suggested picks also didn't quite pay off, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 88.1%, while the most likely score, 1-1, held a 9.7% probability. The model's selection was the favourite, and the actual result was an Away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sandnes ULF win✗ Miss
45.5%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.95
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.03
Dafabet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.60
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Betano
3.75
Pinnacle
3.74
hodd win✓ Hit
31.0%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.36
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.80
Unibet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
888Sport
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sandnes ULF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.47
0.71
2.57
0.88
2.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
3.00
0.38
2.88
0.17
3.17
vs Similar (15)
1.20
2.07
1.17
2.17
1.22
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.00
1.73
1.60
1.00
2.40
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
3.50
1.50
2.50
0.75
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.43
1.70
1.77
1.46
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.1%
@ 1.16+8.2%
Under 1.5
11.9%
@ 4.62-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.81
BetVictor
4.80
888Sport
4.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.4%
@ 1.56+9.5%
Under 2.5
30.6%
@ 2.32-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
888Sport
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Under
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.1%
@ 2.35+8.7%
Under 3.5
51.9%
@ 1.53-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Betfair
2.45
888Sport
2.40
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Under
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.8%
@ 1.50+8.3%
No
30.2%
@ 2.40-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
No
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.40
William Hil
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%@ 6.89+3.4%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.67+3.0%
1-2
7.1%@ 10.58+3.0%
2-2
7.0%@ 10.58+2.9%
3-1
5.7%@ 12.27+2.1%
2-0
5.4%@ 10.21+1.1%
3-2
4.6%@ 16.84+2.0%
1-0
4.6%@ 9.25-0.1%
Sandnes ULF goals ↓
hodd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
1.9%
0.8%
1
4.6%
9.7%
7.1%
3.8%
1.5%
2
5.4%
8.7%
7.0%
3.8%
1.5%
3
3.5%
5.7%
4.6%
2.5%
1.0%
4
1.7%
2.8%
2.3%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sandnes ULF goals (down), columns = hodd goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Raufoss
0.50
Ranheim
0.50
Moss
0.29
Sandnes ULF is 1.57 points worse than hodd in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Sandnes ULF is 1.29 goals worse than hodd in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Sandnes ULF is 0.57 goals better than hodd in terms of goals conceded per game (2.29 vs 2.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sandnes ULF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.00
0.29
0.93
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (14)
0.07
1.21
0.12
1.12
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.50
0.67
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
1.13
0.67
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.33
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.83
1.08
0.62
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sandnes ULF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.47
0.43
1.64
0.56
1.31
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
1.79
0.25
1.75
0.17
1.83
vs Similar (15)
0.67
1.27
0.67
1.50
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (hodd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
hodd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.60
0.93
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.17
0.00
1.50
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.87
0.69
0.85
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
hodd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.1%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
888Sport
1.17
+8.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Sandnes ULF and hodd have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Sandnes ULF and hodd have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Sandnes ULF and hodd have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Sandnes ULF and hodd have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Ranheim
Raufoss
Moss