Sandnes ULF are set to host Moss in a fixture that the model expects to be high-scoring, with an average of 3.3 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9 % chance. The model favours a home win, with a 38 % probability, a draw at 25 %, and an away win also at 38 %. Sandnes’ home form shows they average 1.33 goals scored and concede 2.33 against similar opposition, while Moss, playing away, averages 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.9 %), Under 6.5 (94.6 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (91.1 %), Under 5.5 (87.7 %), Over 1.5 (85.7 %), Away over 0.5 goals (81.2 %), and Home over 0.5 goals (81.2 %). Both sides have recently struggled, with Sandnes on five straight defeats and Moss coming off a loss, setting the stage for a tightly contested match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sandnes ULF win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moss win
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sandnes ULF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.27
0.79
2.57
1.19
2.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
2.67
0.43
3.00
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (16)
1.31
2.06
1.14
2.14
1.44
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
-
-
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.10
1.79
2.21
0.81
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
5.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.29
2.00
1.85
2.00
0.80
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.0%
Under 2.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.0%
Under 3.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.0%
No
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
4.9%
2-0
4.9%
0-1
4.9%
1-0
4.9%
Sandnes ULF goals ↓
Moss goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
4.9%
4.9%
2.8%
1.2%
1
4.9%
11%
8.3%
4.6%
1.9%
2
4.9%
8.2%
6.9%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.7%
4.6%
3.8%
2.1%
0.9%
4
1.1%
1.9%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sandnes ULF goals (down), columns = Moss goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stabaek
2.50
Kongsvinger
2.17
hodd
2.14
Haugesund
2.14
Stromsgodset
1.86
Bryne
1.86
Lyn
1.83
Strommen
1.67
Egersund
1.57
Sogndal
1.17
ODD Ballklubb
1.14
Asane
0.83
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Ranheim
0.50
Raufoss
0.50
Moss
0.29
Sandnes ULF is 0.29 points better than Moss in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 0.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stabaek
3.50
Haugesund
3.14
Lyn
3.00
Kongsvinger
2.83
Ranheim
2.50
hodd
2.43
Stromsgodset
2.14
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Strommen
2.00
Sogndal
1.83
Egersund
1.71
Asane
1.67
Moss
1.29
Bryne
1.14
Sandnes ULF
1.14
Raufoss
1.00
Sandnes ULF is 0.14 goals worse than Moss in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
1.00
Stabaek
1.17
Haugesund
1.57
Stromsgodset
1.57
Egersund
1.71
Kongsvinger
1.83
Strommen
1.83
Sogndal
2.00
Lyn
2.17
Moss
2.29
ODD Ballklubb
2.29
Sandnes ULF
2.29
Asane
2.33
hodd
2.86
Raufoss
3.00
Ranheim
3.33
Sandnes ULF and Moss are level in goals conceded per game (both 2.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sandnes ULF or Draw
62.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
38%
covers Sandnes ULF + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF or Moss
75.2%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
38%
covers Sandnes ULF + Moss
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Moss
62.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
25%
38%
covers Draw + Moss
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5
Over
81.2%
Under
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5
Over
23.5%
Under
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5
Over
81.2%
Under
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 3.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sandnes ULF, so a minus line means Sandnes ULF give that many goals of a start and Moss receive them. At -1, Sandnes ULF must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sandnes ULF win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sandnes ULF)
Sandnes ULF -2
8.1%
Draw -2
11.5%
Moss +2
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Sandnes ULF)
Sandnes ULF -1
19.5%
Draw -1
18.0%
Moss +1
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Sandnes ULF)
Sandnes ULF +1
62.4%
Draw +1
18.0%
Moss -1
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Sandnes ULF)
Sandnes ULF +2
80.4%
Draw +2
11.5%
Moss -2
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sandnes ULF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.83
0.29
0.71
0.38
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.62
0.43
0.43
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
-
-
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.13
0.71
1.21
0.31
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
1.04
0.77
1.08
0.27
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sandnes ULF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.43
0.50
1.86
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.67
0.29
2.00
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (16)
0.81
1.44
0.71
1.71
0.89
1.22
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Moss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.97
1.07
1.00
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.96
1.08
0.92
0.53
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sandnes ULF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sandnes ULF over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sandnes ULF over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Sandnes ULF's squad is €1m less valuable than Moss's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STA (9)
€5m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Sandnes ULF and Moss have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OB (7)
€3m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Sandnes ULF and Moss have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAU (10)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Sandnes ULF and Moss have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Norway: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stabaek
Haugesund
hodd
Kongsvinger
Stromsgodset
Bryne
Lyn
Egersund
Strommen
ODD Ballklubb
Sogndal
Asane
Ranheim
Raufoss