This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.10
2.20
1.00
1.33
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.50
-
-
1.75
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.00
2.14
0.93
1.10
1.10
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
3.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.0%
2-0
12.5%
1-1
12.3%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
6.9%
0-1 ✓
5.7%
3-1
5.1%
Santa Clara goals ↓
Nacional goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
5.7%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
1
14%
12%
4.1%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.2%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
6.9%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Santa Clara goals (down), columns = Nacional goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Santa Clara
2.15
Nacional
2.09
AVS
1.88
Maritimo
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Tondela
1.44
Torreense
1.41
Benfica B
1.32
Mafra
1.29
FC Porto B
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.26
União de Leiria
1.24
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.09
Oliveirense
1.00
Feirense
0.94
Vilaverdense
0.82
CF Os Belenenses
0.76
Santa Clara is 0.06 points better than Nacional in terms of average points per game (2.15 vs 2.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nacional
1.94
Maritimo
1.53
FC Porto B
1.50
AVS
1.47
Santa Clara
1.41
Benfica B
1.41
Tondela
1.35
União de Leiria
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Mafra
1.18
Torreense
1.18
Oliveirense
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.06
Feirense
0.94
Penafiel
0.91
Vilaverdense
0.88
Leixoes
0.85
CF Os Belenenses
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.50
Santa Clara is 0.53 goals worse than Nacional in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Santa Clara
0.56
Maritimo
0.85
AVS
1.00
Nacional
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Torreense
1.09
Leixoes
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
União de Leiria
1.18
Mafra
1.24
Tondela
1.26
Feirense
1.39
Benfica B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Oliveirense
1.59
CF Os Belenenses
1.74
Vilaverdense
1.74
Santa Clara is 0.47 goals better than Nacional in terms of goals conceded per game (0.56 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto B
54%
Pacos Ferreira
53%
Mafra
53%
AVS
53%
Leixoes
52%
Feirense
52%
Benfica B
52%
Oliveirense
52%
Maritimo
51%
União de Leiria
50%
Santa Clara
50%
Nacional
50%
Torreense
49%
Tondela
47%
Academico Viseu
47%
Vilaverdense
47%
CF Os Belenenses
45%
Penafiel
42%
Santa Clara is 0.2 percentage points better than Nacional in terms of average possession (50% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Santa Clara
For 5.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 13.8 · Total 29.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nacional
For 6.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Santa Clara
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.2
9.0
3.2
3.3
3.1
29.0
30.5
27.7
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
8.8
8.0
9.7
3.2
3.6
2.8
27.1
28.8
25.3
vs Weaker (19)
8.4
8.4
8.4
4.4
4.0
4.7
30.8
32.4
29.7
% over line
33%
36%
31%
40%
42%
38%
88%
91%
85%
% under line
67%
64%
69%
60%
58%
62%
12%
9%
15%
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.2
12.0
12.4
4.9
5.2
4.6
27.7
27.7
27.6
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
8.0
11.2
6.2
5.0
6.8
27.5
33.0
24.8
vs Similar (42)
12.6
12.6
12.6
4.8
5.2
4.4
27.8
27.4
28.3
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
9.0
-
2.0
4.0
0.0
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
75%
68%
82%
80%
88%
72%
81%
86%
76%
% under line
25%
32%
18%
20%
12%
28%
19%
14%
24%
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nacional
12.1
AVS
12.1
Oliveirense
10.9
Academico Viseu
10.9
Leixoes
10.7
Vilaverdense
10.6
Feirense
10.6
FC Porto B
10.6
Tondela
10.6
Benfica B
10.4
Pacos Ferreira
10.3
Penafiel
10.2
Mafra
10.1
União de Leiria
9.6
CF Os Belenenses
9.5
Torreense
9.4
Maritimo
9.4
Santa Clara
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maritimo
6.3
Oliveirense
6.2
Santa Clara
6.1
Leixoes
5.9
Pacos Ferreira
5.9
FC Porto B
5.7
Benfica B
5.7
Tondela
5.7
Nacional
5.5
AVS
5.5
Torreense
5.4
Penafiel
5.4
Academico Viseu
5.3
União de Leiria
5.2
Feirense
5.1
Mafra
5.0
Vilaverdense
4.9
CF Os Belenenses
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
31.8
Maritimo
30.9
Penafiel
30.7
Oliveirense
30.4
Santa Clara
29.9
Leixoes
29.8
Vilaverdense
29.8
Feirense
28.4
Tondela
28.0
Torreense
27.9
Nacional
27.7
AVS
27.7
Benfica B
26.6
União de Leiria
26.4
Mafra
26.3
FC Porto B
25.7
Academico Viseu
25.7
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.9%
Under 9.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
79.7%
Under 3.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.2%
Under 21.5
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Santa Clara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
1.14
0.36
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
-
-
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.64
1.14
0.57
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.21
1.14
0.14
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.20
0.53
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.50
-
-
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.58
1.14
0.50
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Santa Clara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.33
0.57
0.21
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
-
-
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.36
0.86
0.29
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.14
0.29
0.14
0.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nacional
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.00
0.47
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.42
1.00
0.43
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nacional over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Santa Clara · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gonçalo Paciência75%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Sorriso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Lopes50%
Daniel Borges33%
Emanuel Fernandes33%
Guilherme Romão25%
Pedro Pacheco25%
Sorriso25%
Gonçalo Paciência0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Calila25%
Welinton Torrao25%
Sorriso25%
Gonçalo Paciência0%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gonçalo Paciência75%
Guilherme Romão0%
Vinícius Lopes0%
Diogo Calila0%
Lucas França0%
Pedro Ferreira0%
Pedro Pacheco0%
Welinton Torrao0%
Daniel Borges0%
Tiago Ribeiro0%
Emanuel Fernandes0%
Luis Fernando0%
José Tavares0%
Sorriso0%
Nacional · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Miguel Baeza25%
Ze Vitor25%
Pablo Messias Cardozo25%
Filipe Soares0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Matheus Dias0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filipe Soares50%
Wesley Gasolina25%
Matheus Dias25%
Ze Vitor25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Liziero0%
Léo Santos0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Liziero25%
Léo Santos25%
Daniel Júnior25%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léo Santos25%
Liziero0%
Filipe Soares0%
Wesley Gasolina0%
Stavros Gavriel0%
Miguel Baeza0%
Matheus Dias0%
Ze Vitor0%
Daniel Júnior0%
Daniel De la Cruz0%
Markus Jensen0%
Renato Marin0%
Pablo Messias Cardozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
SC (28)
€27m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
AVS (20)
€7m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Santa Clara's squad is €7m more valuable than Nacional's (€27m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
SC (11)
€9m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
UDL (9)
€4m
AVS (8)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Santa Clara's attack is €3m more valuable than Nacional's (€9m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Santa Clara and Nacional have a similar midfield value (both €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
SC (12)
€12m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Santa Clara's defence is €4m more valuable than Nacional's (€12m vs €9m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Maritimo
AVS
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Torreense
Benfica B
FC Porto B
Mafra
Academico Viseu
União de Leiria
Penafiel
Leixoes
Feirense
Oliveirense
Vilaverdense
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitânia Lourosa