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Səbail vs Baku Sportinq Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 0-0
Səbail
Səbail
Vs
42%
30%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Səbail win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SəbailSəbail

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W00D02L30W22D34L10W00D01LH·ŞAM29/10H·MOI05/11A·BAK21/11H·CƏB27/11H·DIF11/12A·ŞAH18/12H·ŞIM24/12A·ZAQ05/02H·SAF12/02A·MOI18/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.301.001.310.861.29
vs Stronger (12)0.671.670.501.330.832.00
vs Similar (14)1.141.211.431.570.860.86
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.671.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D21W01L21W10W21W11D20W21WH·CƏB05/11H·SƏB21/11A·MIN26/11A·ŞAM03/12H·ŞAH10/12A·ŞIM17/12H·ZAQ24/12A·SAF05/02H·MOI12/02A·CƏB18/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.271.271.201.071.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.931.070.881.381.000.71
vs Weaker (15)1.401.471.711.001.121.88
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.2%
Under 2.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.7%
Under 3.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.4%
0-0 ✓
11.0%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
8.3%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.1%
Səbail goals ↓
Baku Sportinq goals →
01234
011%8.6%5.1%1.7%0.4%
111%14%6.6%2.3%0.6%
28.3%8.5%4.3%1.5%0.4%
33.6%3.7%1.9%0.6%0.2%
41.2%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Səbail goals (down), columns = Baku Sportinq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Səbail is 0.04 points better than Baku Sportinq in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Səbail is 0.22 goals better than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Səbail is 0.07 goals better than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SəbailSəbail

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D00D10W12L10W10W00D01LH·ŞAM29/10H·MOI05/11A·BAK21/11H·CƏB27/11H·DIF11/12A·ŞAH18/12H·ŞIM24/12A·ZAQ05/02H·SAF12/02A·MOI18/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.630.500.440.360.86
vs Stronger (12)0.331.000.170.830.501.17
vs Similar (14)0.500.500.860.290.140.71
vs Weaker (4)0.500.000.330.001.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L00D21W10W10W00D00D20WH·CƏB05/11H·SƏB21/11A·MIN26/11A·ŞAM03/12H·ŞAH10/12A·ŞIM17/12H·ZAQ24/12A·SAF05/02H·MOI12/02A·CƏB18/02
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.500.670.470.600.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.470.470.380.750.570.14
vs Weaker (15)0.800.531.000.140.620.88
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SəbailSəbail

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D00D02L20W10W24L00D00D00DH·ŞAM29/10H·MOI05/11A·BAK21/11H·CƏB27/11H·DIF11/12A·ŞAH18/12H·ŞIM24/12A·ZAQ05/02H·SAF12/02A·MOI18/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.500.880.500.43
vs Stronger (12)0.330.670.330.500.330.83
vs Similar (14)0.640.710.571.290.710.14
vs Weaker (4)0.500.500.670.670.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D20W01L00D00D11D11D20W01LH·CƏB05/11H·SƏB21/11A·MIN26/11A·ŞAM03/12H·ŞAH10/12A·ŞIM17/12H·ZAQ24/12A·SAF05/02H·MOI12/02A·CƏB18/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.770.600.730.470.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.470.600.500.620.430.57
vs Weaker (15)0.600.930.710.860.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (5)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (8)
€3m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
SƏB wins
1
Draws
0
BS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Səbail vs Baku Sportinq · H/A from SƏB
DateH/AGameScore
21/11/25ABaku Sportinq Vs SƏB0-0

SəbailSəbail

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/26AMOIK Vs SƏB1-0
12/02/26HSƏB Vs Safa Baku0-0
05/02/26AZaqatala Vs SƏB0-1
24/12/25HSƏB Vs Şimal3-4
18/12/25AŞahdağ Vs SƏB2-2
11/12/25HSƏB Vs Difai Ağsu3-0
27/11/25HSƏB Vs Cəbrayıl0-2
21/11/25ABaku Sportinq Vs SƏB0-0
05/11/25HSƏB Vs MOIK1-0
29/10/25HSƏB Vs Şamaxı FK0-1

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/26ACəbrayıl Vs BS1-2
12/02/26HBS Vs MOIK2-0
05/02/26ASafa Baku Vs BS1-1
24/12/25HBS Vs Zaqatala2-1
17/12/25AŞimal Vs BS0-1
10/12/25HBS Vs Şahdağ2-1
03/12/25AŞamaxı FK Vs BS1-0
26/11/25AMingəçevir Vs BS1-2
21/11/25HBS Vs Səbail0-0
05/11/25HBS Vs Cəbrayıl2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Səbail
Səbail
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDL1.00
HomeWLWLD1.00
AwayDDDWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%27%21%
AVG goals2.282.152.42
Over 1.5 %60%58%62%
Over 2.5 %34%27%42%
Over 3.5 %24%15%33%
Scored0.960.851.08
Conceded1.321.311.33
BTTS34%27%42%
Clean Sheet36%38%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.40
HomeWDWWW1.29
AwayWLWDW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%42%
AVG goals2.422.292.54
Over 1.5 %69%67%71%
Over 2.5 %47%43%50%
Over 3.5 %24%24%25%
Scored1.071.051.08
Conceded1.361.241.46
BTTS47%38%54%
Clean Sheet29%33%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1031.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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