PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Səbail vs Cəbrayıl Result & Analysis

Date: 30/04/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 6-0
Səbail
Səbail
Vs
63%
24%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Səbail win✓ Hit
63.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl win✗ Miss
13.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SəbailSəbail

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L00D41W10W22D10W12L40W40WH·SAF12/02A·MOI18/02H·BAK24/02A·CƏB06/03A·MIN12/03H·MOI18/03H·BAK02/04A·SAF09/04H·ŞIM16/04A·DIF23/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.031.310.941.431.14
vs Stronger (7)0.861.710.330.671.252.50
vs Similar (17)1.530.941.701.101.290.71
vs Weaker (6)1.500.501.000.672.000.33
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-424L12L23L14L10W11D12L32W00D21WA·ŞAH12/02H·BAK18/02A·ŞIM24/02H·SƏB06/03H·ZAQ13/03A·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.772.001.330.872.20
vs Stronger (30)1.431.772.001.330.872.20
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.3%
No
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.9%
1-0
12.7%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.4%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.4%
Səbail goals ↓
Cəbrayıl goals →
01234
08.4%4.4%2.0%0.5%0.1%
113%11%3.8%0.9%0.2%
213%9.5%3.5%0.9%0.2%
38.0%5.9%2.2%0.5%0.1%
43.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Səbail goals (down), columns = Cəbrayıl goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Səbail is 0.96 points better than Cəbrayıl in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 0.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Səbail is 0.22 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Səbail is 1.30 goals better than Cəbrayıl in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 2.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SəbailSəbail

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D20W10W01L00D00D10W10WH·SAF12/02A·MOI18/02H·BAK24/02A·CƏB06/03A·MIN12/03H·MOI18/03H·BAK02/04A·SAF09/04H·ŞIM16/04A·DIF23/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.400.500.190.570.64
vs Stronger (7)0.290.860.000.330.501.25
vs Similar (17)0.530.350.700.200.290.57
vs Weaker (6)0.830.000.330.001.330.00
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L02L11D02L00D10W11D10W00D20WA·ŞAH12/02H·BAK18/02A·ŞIM24/02H·SƏB06/03H·ZAQ13/03A·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.930.670.330.87
vs Stronger (30)0.630.770.930.670.330.87
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SəbailSəbail

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D21W00D21W10W12L30W30WH·SAF12/02A·MOI18/02H·BAK24/02A·CƏB06/03A·MIN12/03H·MOI18/03H·BAK02/04A·SAF09/04H·ŞIM16/04A·DIF23/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.630.810.750.860.50
vs Stronger (7)0.570.860.330.330.751.25
vs Similar (17)1.000.591.000.901.000.14
vs Weaker (6)0.670.500.670.670.670.33
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L10W12L12L10W01L01L22D00D01LA·ŞAH12/02H·BAK18/02A·ŞIM24/02H·SƏB06/03H·ZAQ13/03A·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.001.070.670.531.33
vs Stronger (30)0.801.001.070.670.531.33
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Səbail's squad is €1m more valuable than Cəbrayıl's (€1m vs €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (5)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Səbail and Cəbrayıl have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (8)
€3m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Səbail and Cəbrayıl have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
SƏB wins
0
Draws
1
CƏB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Səbail vs Cəbrayıl · H/A from SƏB
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/26ACəbrayıl Vs SƏB1-4
27/11/25HSƏB Vs Cəbrayıl0-2

SəbailSəbail

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/04/26ADifai Ağsu Vs SƏB0-4
16/04/26HSƏB Vs Şimal4-0
09/04/26ASafa Baku Vs SƏB2-1
02/04/26HSƏB Vs Baku Sportinq1-0
18/03/26HSƏB Vs MOIK2-2
12/03/26AMingəçevir Vs SƏB0-1
06/03/26ACəbrayıl Vs SƏB1-4
24/02/26HSƏB Vs Baku Sportinq0-0
18/02/26AMOIK Vs SƏB1-0
12/02/26HSƏB Vs Safa Baku0-0

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/26HCƏB Vs Mingəçevir2-1
15/04/26AŞahdağ Vs CƏB0-0
08/04/26HCƏB Vs Zaqatala3-2
02/04/26AMOIK Vs CƏB2-1
19/03/26ADifai Ağsu Vs CƏB1-1
13/03/26HCƏB Vs Zaqatala1-0
06/03/26HCƏB Vs Səbail1-4
24/02/26AŞimal Vs CƏB3-2
18/02/26HCƏB Vs Baku Sportinq1-2
12/02/26AŞahdağ Vs CƏB4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Səbail
Səbail
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWW1.20
HomeDDDWW1.15
AwayLWWLW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%31%29%
AVG goals2.182.082.29
Over 1.5 %58%54%62%
Over 2.5 %36%31%42%
Over 3.5 %24%19%29%
Scored1.020.921.12
Conceded1.161.151.17
BTTS32%23%42%
Clean Sheet42%46%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW0.94
HomeLLWWW1.50
AwayLLDLD0.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%46%8%
AVG goals2.883.042.73
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %56%67%46%
Over 3.5 %30%38%23%
Scored1.181.670.73
Conceded1.701.382.00
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet24%33%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1031.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches