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Səbail vs Karvan Prediction & Stats

Date: 08/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Səbail
Səbail
Vs
23%
29%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model favours an away win for Karvan, with a 48% chance of victory, a 29% draw probability and a 23% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% chance. Səbail’s home form shows an average of 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Karvan’s away record yields 1.0 goal scored and 1.29 conceded versus the same tier. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (96.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.8%), Away +2 handicap (91.6%) and Under 4.5 (90.0%). Səbail entered the match after a draw, while Karvan come off a win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Səbail win
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karvan win
48.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SəbailSəbail

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D10W12L40W40W60W30W00D14L11DH·MOI18/03H·BAK02/04A·SAF09/04H·ŞIM16/04A·DIF23/04H·CƏB30/04A·ZAQ06/05H·ŞAH15/05A·MIN22/05A·XAN03/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.901.620.811.571.00
vs Stronger (6)1.171.000.670.001.672.00
vs Similar (15)1.470.931.671.221.170.50
vs Weaker (9)2.110.782.250.502.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L07L41W10W02L03L01L12L11D30WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.970.871.800.672.13
vs Stronger (15)0.472.470.572.000.382.88
vs Similar (15)1.071.471.121.621.001.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.9%
Under 2.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
10.0%
0-2
9.6%
1-2
9.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
4.8%
Səbail goals ↓
Karvan goals →
01234
010%12%9.6%4.8%1.8%
17.1%14%9.2%4.5%1.7%
24.0%5.9%4.4%2.2%0.8%
31.3%1.9%1.4%0.7%0.3%
40.3%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Səbail goals (down), columns = Karvan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Səbail is 0.62 points worse than Karvan in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 2.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Səbail is 0.98 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 2.69).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Səbail is 0.03 goals worse than Karvan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Səbail or Draw
51.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
29%
48%
covers Səbail + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Səbail or Karvan
71.3%
Avg Implied -
23%
29%
48%
covers Səbail + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Karvan
77.0%
Avg Implied -
23%
29%
48%
covers Draw + Karvan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Səbail over/under 0.5
Over
61.4%
Under
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5
Over
24.6%
Under
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5
Over
77.3%
Under
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 3.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Səbail, so a minus line means Səbail give that many goals of a start and Karvan receive them. At -1, Səbail must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Səbail win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Səbail)
Səbail -2
2.2%
Draw -2
6.2%
Karvan +2
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Səbail)
Səbail -1
8.4%
Draw -1
14.5%
Karvan +1
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Səbail)
Səbail +1
51.7%
Draw +1
23.4%
Karvan -1
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Səbail)
Səbail +2
75.0%
Draw +2
15.1%
Karvan -2
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SəbailSəbail

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D10W10W30W20W00D12L11DH·MOI18/03H·BAK02/04A·SAF09/04H·ŞIM16/04A·DIF23/04H·CƏB30/04A·ZAQ06/05H·ŞAH15/05A·MIN22/05A·XAN03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.330.690.120.860.57
vs Stronger (6)0.830.670.670.001.001.33
vs Similar (15)0.470.270.560.220.330.33
vs Weaker (9)1.220.221.000.001.400.40
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D05L20W10W00D01L01L00D10W10WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.770.470.470.401.07
vs Stronger (15)0.271.000.430.570.121.38
vs Similar (15)0.600.530.500.380.710.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SəbailSəbail

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W12L30W30W30W10W00D02L00DH·MOI18/03H·BAK02/04A·SAF09/04H·ŞIM16/04A·DIF23/04H·CƏB30/04A·ZAQ06/05H·ŞAH15/05A·MIN22/05A·XAN03/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.940.690.710.43
vs Stronger (6)0.330.330.000.000.670.67
vs Similar (15)1.000.671.111.000.830.17
vs Weaker (9)0.890.561.250.500.600.60
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Karvan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KarvanKarvan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L21W00D02L02L00D12L01L20WH·ZIR19/03A·QAR06/04H·KAP10/04H·ŞAM18/04A·SAB27/04H·NEF05/05A·TUR10/05H·QAB15/05A·IMI24/05A·BAK03/09← Premyer LiqaBirinci Dasta →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.200.401.330.271.07
vs Stronger (15)0.201.470.141.430.251.50
vs Similar (15)0.470.930.621.250.290.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karvan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.6%-------
Under 6.598.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals98.4%-------
Under 5.596.2%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals92.8%-------
Away +2 handicap91.6%-------
Under 4.590.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals81.3%-------
Away over 0.5 goals77.3%-------
Under 3.577.1%-------
Draw or Away77.0%-------
Away +1 handicap77.0%-------
Home under 1.5 goals75.4%-------
Home +2 handicap75.0%-------
Home or Away71.3%-------
Over 1.571.1%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Səbail and Karvan have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Səbail and Karvan have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Səbail and Karvan have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Səbail and Karvan have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
SƏB wins
0
Draws
0
KAR wins

Head-to-head

Səbail vs Karvan · H/A from SƏB
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

SəbailSəbail

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26AXankəndi FK Vs SƏB1-1
22/05/26AMingəçevir Vs SƏB4-1
15/05/26HSƏB Vs Şahdağ0-0
06/05/26AZaqatala Vs SƏB0-3
30/04/26HSƏB Vs Cəbrayıl6-0
23/04/26ADifai Ağsu Vs SƏB0-4
16/04/26HSƏB Vs Şimal4-0
09/04/26ASafa Baku Vs SƏB2-1
02/04/26HSƏB Vs Baku Sportinq1-0
18/03/26HSƏB Vs MOIK2-2

KarvanKarvan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26ABaku Sportinq Vs KAR0-3
24/05/26AImisli FK Vs KAR1-1
15/05/26HKAR Vs Qabala1-2
10/05/26ATuran Vs KAR1-0
05/05/26HKAR Vs Neftchi Baku0-3
27/04/26ASabah FA Vs KAR2-0
18/04/26HKAR Vs Şamaxı FK1-0
10/04/26HKAR Vs Kapaz4-1
06/04/26AQarabag Vs KAR7-0
19/03/26HKAR Vs Zira0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Səbail
Səbail
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLD1.28
HomeDWWWD1.31
AwayLWWLD1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%35%29%
AVG goals2.342.122.58
Over 1.5 %60%50%71%
Over 2.5 %40%31%50%
Over 3.5 %28%23%33%
Scored1.201.151.25
Conceded1.140.961.33
BTTS36%23%50%
Clean Sheet44%54%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Karvan
Karvan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW0.80
HomeLWWLL0.96
AwayLLLDW0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%24%12%
AVG goals2.802.722.88
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.001.120.88
Conceded1.801.602.00
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvanKarvan13
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.00.0
-
2ŞahdağŞahdağ13
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
3SəbailSəbail11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.0
-
4Xankəndi FKXankəndi FK11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
5MingəçevirMingəçevir00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
6ŞimalŞimal00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9MOIKMOIK10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
10Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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