Səbail are favoured to win this Azerbaijan Premier League clash, with a 52% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Mingəçevir victory. The model expects 2.9 goals in total, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.1% probability. Səbail, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.25 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Mingəçevir, away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.7%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.3% and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.7%. Səbail’s recent form shows a win-winning streak after a defeat to Mingəçevir, while Mingəçevir also came off a loss, setting the stage for a tight contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Səbail win
51.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir win
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Səbail
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.90
1.62
0.81
1.57
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.67
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.93
1.67
1.22
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.11
0.78
2.25
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mingəçevir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.17
2.40
1.00
1.47
1.33
vs Stronger (24)
1.75
1.21
2.25
1.17
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (3)
3.33
1.00
3.50
0.50
3.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
8.7%
0-0
6.6%
1-2
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
Səbail goals ↓
Mingəçevir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
5.1%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.7%
12%
6.1%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.8%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
5.2%
5.8%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Səbail goals (down), columns = Mingəçevir goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Səbail is 0.04 points worse than Mingəçevir in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Səbail is 0.33 goals worse than Mingəçevir in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 2.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Səbail is 0.22 goals better than Mingəçevir in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Səbail or Draw
77.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
26%
23%
covers Səbail + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Səbail or Mingəçevir
74.5%
Avg Implied -
52%
26%
23%
covers Səbail + Mingəçevir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mingəçevir
48.2%
Avg Implied -
52%
26%
23%
covers Draw + Mingəçevir
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Səbail over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
Under
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5
Over
53.1%
Under
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5
Over
26.3%
Under
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
Under
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Səbail, so a minus line means Səbail give that many goals of a start and Mingəçevir receive them. At -1, Səbail must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Səbail win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Səbail)
Səbail -2
13.3%
Draw -2
16.2%
Mingəçevir +2
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Səbail)
Səbail -1
29.4%
Draw -1
22.3%
Mingəçevir +1
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Səbail)
Səbail +1
77.3%
Draw +1
13.6%
Mingəçevir -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Səbail)
Səbail +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.4%
Mingəçevir -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Səbail
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.69
0.12
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.27
0.56
0.22
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.22
1.00
0.00
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mingəçevir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.40
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (24)
0.71
0.62
1.08
0.50
0.33
0.75
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.7%
Under 0.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.2%
Under 1.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.3%
Under 2.5
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Səbail
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.69
0.71
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.67
1.11
1.00
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mingəçevir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.33
0.60
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (24)
1.04
0.58
1.17
0.67
0.92
0.50
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.1%
Under 0.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.0%
Under 1.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.7%
Under 2.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Səbail over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.1%
Under
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Səbail's squad is €1m more valuable than Mingəçevir's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Səbail and Mingəçevir have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Səbail and Mingəçevir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Səbail and Mingəçevir have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Şahdağ
Xankəndi FK
Şimal
Zaqatala
Cəbrayıl
MOIK
Baku Sportinq