Səbail vs Şahdağ Result & Analysis

Date: 15/05/2026

Time: 13:00

Final 0-0

Səbail

50%

30%

20%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Şahdağ

Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Səbail's recent form has been a concern, coming off a 1-4 defeat against Mingəçevir. However, they've been solid at home, conceding just one goal on average. Their opponents, Qəbələ, have been unbeaten in their last 5 away matches, but they've struggled to score, averaging just 1.12 goals per game.

The model predicts a low-scoring draw, with Səbail favoured to win. The expected total goals is 2.2, and the most likely score is 1-0, with a probability of 14.1%. The most likely total goals is 2.

Səbail's home scoring average is 1.5 goals, while they concede 1 goal on average. Qəbələ's away scoring average is 1.12 goals, and they concede 1 goal on average.

The model's selections are: Home win (50%), Draw (30%), Away win (20%), Under 3.5 (81.4%), and Both teams to score is not present but if it was, it would be 18.6%. Səbail win (50%), Draw (30%), Away win (20%), Over/Under, Both teams to score, Corners, Cards, Fouls, and Clean-sheet selections are not present.

Results analysis

The draw between Səbail and Qəbələ extends the latter's unbeaten run, a streak that's been building over the past five matches. The actual result was a surprise, as the game ended 0-0, defying the pre-match favourite Səbail, who had a 50% chance of winning according to the model's predictions. The model's selection, Səbail to win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 81.4% probability of occurrence, as the final score confirmed a low-scoring affair.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Səbail win✗ Miss

50.2%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✓ Hit

29.7%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Şahdağ win✗ Miss

20.2%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Səbail

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.1

Avg scored

2.6

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.60	0.90	1.69	0.88	1.50	0.93
vs Stronger (22)	1.36	1.09	1.50	1.00	1.20	1.20
vs Similar (5)	1.60	0.00	1.50	0.00	1.67	0.00
vs Weaker (3)	3.33	1.00	3.00	1.00	4.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	53% (+23pp vs league)

This opponent (Şahdağ) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Şahdağ

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

0.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.40	1.04	1.75	1.00	1.08	1.08
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	1.67	0.00	2.00	0.50	1.50
vs Similar (5)	1.40	1.40	1.50	2.00	1.33	1.00
vs Weaker (17)	1.59	0.82	2.00	0.67	1.12	1.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+10pp vs league)

This opponent (Səbail) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

66.4%

Under 1.5

33.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

38.4%

Under 2.5

61.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

18.6%

Under 3.5

81.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

43.3%

56.7%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-0

14.1%

1-1

13.6%

0-0 ✓

12.0%

2-0

10.8%

2-1

8.8%

0-1

7.5%

3-0

5.1%

1-2

5.0%

Səbail goals ↓

	Şahdağ goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	12%	7.5%	3.5%	1.0%	0.2%
1	14%	14%	5.0%	1.3%	0.3%
2	11%	8.8%	3.5%	1.0%	0.2%
3	5.1%	4.1%	1.7%	0.5%	0.1%
4	1.8%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Səbail goals (down), columns = Şahdağ goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Safa Baku

2.11

Mingəçevir

1.89

Səbail

1.85

Baku Sportinq

1.81

Şahdağ

1.59

MOIK

1.22

Zaqatala

1.04

Cəbrayıl

0.89

Şimal

0.82

Difai Ağsu

0.67

Qaradağ Lökbatan

0.00

Səbail is 0.26 points better than Şahdağ in terms of average points per game (1.85 vs 1.59).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Mingəçevir

2.04

Safa Baku

1.93

Səbail

1.70

Baku Sportinq

1.48

Cəbrayıl

1.48

Şahdağ

1.33

MOIK

1.22

Difai Ağsu

1.04

Zaqatala

1.00

Qaradağ Lökbatan

1.00

Şimal

0.89

Səbail is 0.37 goals better than Şahdağ in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Safa Baku

0.78

Səbail

0.78

Baku Sportinq

0.85

Şahdağ

1.00

Mingəçevir

1.00

MOIK

1.48

Zaqatala

1.63

Qaradağ Lökbatan

2.00

Cəbrayıl

2.07

Şimal

2.21

Difai Ağsu

2.22

Səbail is 0.22 goals better than Şahdağ in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	81.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SB (25)

€4m

SƏB (30)

€0m

MIN (20)

€0m

ZAQ (23)

€0m

CƏB (23)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SB (0)

€0m

CƏB (0)

€0m

MIN (0)

€0m

SƏB (0)

€0m

ZAQ (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SB (0)

€0m

CƏB (0)

€0m

MIN (0)

€0m

SƏB (0)

€0m

ZAQ (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SB (0)

€0m

CƏB (0)

€0m

MIN (0)

€0m

SƏB (0)

€0m

ZAQ (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Səbail vs Şahdağ · H/A from SƏB

Date	H/A	Game	Score
18/12/25	A	Şahdağ Vs SƏB	2-2
24/09/25	H	SƏB Vs Şahdağ	2-0

Səbail

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
06/05/26	A	Zaqatala Vs SƏB	0-3
30/04/26	H	SƏB Vs Cəbrayıl	6-0
23/04/26	A	Difai Ağsu Vs SƏB	0-4
16/04/26	H	SƏB Vs Şimal	4-0
09/04/26	A	Safa Baku Vs SƏB	2-1
02/04/26	H	SƏB Vs Baku Sportinq	1-0
18/03/26	H	SƏB Vs MOIK	2-2
12/03/26	A	Mingəçevir Vs SƏB	0-1
06/03/26	A	Cəbrayıl Vs SƏB	1-4
24/02/26	H	SƏB Vs Baku Sportinq	0-0

Şahdağ

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
05/05/26	H	ŞAH Vs Mingəçevir	2-0
29/04/26	A	MOIK Vs ŞAH	0-1
22/04/26	A	Zaqatala Vs ŞAH	0-1
15/04/26	H	ŞAH Vs Cəbrayıl	0-0
09/04/26	A	Difai Ağsu Vs ŞAH	0-3
03/04/26	H	ŞAH Vs Şimal	1-0
18/03/26	A	Safa Baku Vs ŞAH	1-0
12/03/26	H	ŞAH Vs MOIK	1-1
05/03/26	A	Safa Baku Vs ŞAH	2-1
25/02/26	H	ŞAH Vs Zaqatala	1-0

📊 8. Overall Statistics

Səbail

Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta

Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWWWW	1.28
Home	DDWWW	1.31
Away	WWLWW	1.25

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	32%	35%	29%
AVG goals	2.26	2.31	2.21
Over 1.5 %	60%	62%	58%
Over 2.5 %	38%	35%	42%
Over 3.5 %	24%	23%	25%
Scored	1.16	1.19	1.12
Conceded	1.10	1.12	1.08
BTTS	32%	27%	38%
Clean Sheet	44%	50%	38%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Şahdağ

Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta

Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WDWWW	1.64
Home	WDWDW	1.83
Away	LLWWW	1.46

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	48%	50%	46%
AVG goals	2.44	2.75	2.15
Over 1.5 %	64%	67%	62%
Over 2.5 %	44%	42%	46%
Over 3.5 %	24%	42%	8%
Scored	1.40	1.75	1.08
Conceded	1.04	1.00	1.08
BTTS	44%	42%	46%
Clean Sheet	40%	50%	31%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 9. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Safa Baku	27	57	59%	2.1	52	21	+31	2.7	74%	48%	26%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	0	0	0	1.9	0.8	-
2	Mingəçevir	27	51	56%	1.9	55	27	+28	3.0	85%	56%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	-
3	Səbail	27	50	52%	1.9	46	21	+25	2.5	59%	48%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	0.8	-
4	Baku Sportinq	27	49	48%	1.8	40	23	+17	2.3	70%	44%	22%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.9	-
5	Şahdağ	27	43	44%	1.6	36	27	+9	2.3	63%	41%	22%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.0	-
6	MOIK	27	33	33%	1.2	33	40	-7	2.7	81%	56%	30%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.5	-
7	Zaqatala	27	28	30%	1.0	27	44	-17	2.6	59%	52%	26%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.6	-
8	Cəbrayıl	27	24	26%	0.9	40	56	-16	3.6	81%	67%	52%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	2.1	-
9	Şimal	28	23	21%	0.8	25	62	-37	3.1	71%	54%	43%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	2.2	-
10	Difai Ağsu	27	18	15%	0.7	28	60	-32	3.3	89%	70%	37%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.2	-
11	Qaradağ Lökbatan	1	0	0%	0.0	1	2	-1	3.0	100%	100%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.0	-

Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches

Səbail vs Şahdağ Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Səbail

Şahdağ

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

Səbail

Şahdağ

📊 8. Overall Statistics

🏆 9. League Table

A Pro feature